China Baffles Reforms in Hong Kong

China ruled Tuesday that it would dictate the pace of political reform in Hong Kong, blunting activists’ hopes for the direct election of top leaders by 2007.

By reasserting its authority, Beijing left little doubt who is boss. Less clear, however, is whether the move will blunt Hong Kong’s nascent democracy movement -- as China hopes -- or spur greater discontent.

The vehicle for China’s show of strength was its interpretation of the Basic Law, the mini-constitution that governs the former British colony. Beijing ruled that reform proposals must be initiated by its handpicked chief executive, Tung Chee-hwa -- rather than emanate from lawmakers or the general public -- with Beijing given the final say.

“We have not only not impeded the democratic process in Hong Kong, but we have promoted democracy in Hong Kong’s political system through our interpretation,” said Qiao Xiaoyang, deputy secretary-general of the Standing Committee of China’s National People’s Congress, or parliament.

Hong Kong residents have little say in choosing the chief executive, who is picked by a committee of elites in close consultation with Beijing. Only 24 of 60 members of the Legislative Council are elected by popular vote. Although the Basic Law defines its ultimate objective as full democracy, it provides no timetable to get there.

Several Hong Kong residents expressed resignation shortly after Beijing’s ruling. “I can’t say I’m surprised,” said Ivan Leung, a 33-year-old computer scientist. “We have no clout. And no matter how huge our protests are, the outcome is the same. It’s disappointing and discouraging.”

Pro-democracy groups fear that Beijing’s interpretation leaves enormous discretion in the hands of an inner circle that can ignore the will of residents.

“This is what we feared the most,” said Ronnie Tong, an attorney and spokesman for a group promoting constitutional reform. “It sounds all too much like rule by man rather than rule by law.”

Beijing has kept a tight grip on the best cards all along. Any move to directly elect Hong Kong’s chief executive in the near future would have to clear many hurdles, including a two-thirds vote in the Legislative Council and the approval of the chief executive and Beijing.

“That wasn’t going to happen,” said David Zweig, a social scientist with the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology.

What Beijing’s decision appears to do, however, is prevent a potential public relations disaster by removing the legislature’s power to initiate reform proposals, analysts said.

The risk from Beijing’s perspective is that pro-democracy candidates will make substantial gains in upcoming Legislative Council elections scheduled for September. Tung and Beijing could be forced to veto a string of reforms, making them look regressive and unresponsive.

But China also announced that three senior officials would arrive in Hong Kong today to meet with various groups and explain its reasoning.

Tung told reporters that Beijing’s interpretation fully upholds the “one country, two systems” model established when the former British colony was returned to China in 1997.

Lin Laifang, a constitutional law expert at China’s Zhejiang University law school, echoed the view that China is taking the right approach. Hong Kong is not ready to elect its own leaders, he said. With the recent demonstrations and confusion surrounding Taiwan’s election, he added, political stability is the primary concern.

“It’s best that Beijing choose the right person for Hong Kong,” Lin said.

Many people believe Beijing didn’t do a great job last time, however. Tung’s popularity ratings are low, and discontent has fueled democratic aspirations that brought 500,000 people into the streets in July.

Analysts say that even China is concerned about Tung’s performance, given his administration’s mishandling of last year’s crisis over severe acute respiratory syndrome, allegations of corruption and perceptions of general mismanagement.

“At least if we could choose our chief executive, we could ask him to step down if he is no good,” said Chan Lai Chin, 33, who works at a Hong Kong advertising company.

China finds itself in a difficult position, however. To save face, it must continue to support Tung, even though more effective leadership by the former shipping executive arguably would have blunted some pressure for reform.

By sending the message that it calls the shots, China may also further undermine Tung. “Actually, this hurts the credibility of the Hong Kong government,” said Ma Ngok, a professor at the University of Science and Technology. “Most people will say, ‘Let’s lobby Beijing and skip the Hong Kong government.’ ”

Tuesday marked the second time Beijing has intervened directly in Hong Kong’s affairs since it reassumed sovereignty there seven years ago. In 1999, the National People’s Congress overruled a Hong Kong court that would have liberalized immigration rules.

Tammy Wong in The Times’ Hong Kong Bureau contributed to this report.