Economic Growth on Track, Data Show

The U.S. economy gained momentum in the first three months of the year, and second-quarter growth should match or top that of the first quarter, a business research group said Monday.

The Conference Board’s index of leading indicators, a gauge of activity over the next three to six months, rose 0.3% in March to 115.3, after holding steady in February. The rise matched Wall Street economists’ expectations.

“Economic growth in the first quarter was strong, and the second quarter may be as good or better,” Conference Board economist Ken Goldstein said. “The final shoe hit the floor in March when 308,000 new jobs were created.”

The leading index is up 4.4% from its low in March 2003. Six of the 10 components rose in March, led by vendor performance -- the most telling of the figures, according to Anthony Chan, Banc One Investment Advisors chief economist.

“It tells me whether or not there are any bottlenecks,” he said, which in turn indicates whether companies will increase production. He said the March number showed that there was “significant demand.”

Chan said the leading indicators index had risen 11 of the last 12 months, with February’s flat reading the exception.

“That tells me that this economic recovery is solidly on track,” he said, adding that the economy still could be knocked off its stride by a too-swift increase in interest rates, a jump in energy prices or another terrorist attack.

The index also showed rising consumer confidence, an increase in building permits and a drop in initial claims for unemployment benefits.