Reunification Plan in Cyprus Appears Dead

An ambitious plan to end decades of conflict on this divided Mediterranean island appears headed for defeat, despite the will of powerful international backers and the serious repercussions for Europe that are sure to follow.

Greek Cypriots in the southern two-thirds of the island and Turkish Cypriots in the north will vote Saturday in separate referendums on whether to accept the plan, drafted by U.N. Secretary-General Kofi Annan after years of negotiation.

The Bush administration hailed the plan as the “decision of a lifetime,” and United Nations and European Union leaders cautioned that this could be Cyprus’ last, best chance to unite.

But in polls, a majority of Greek Cypriot respondents said they would turn down the measure, while Turkish Cypriots, who have more to lose, indicated approval by a narrow margin. Both communities must vote yes for the plan to take effect.

Amid scattered violence, pro and con campaigns were in full swing Thursday on both sides of the mined cease-fire line, with competing rallies and banner-waving marches. Turkish media reported that gangs of Turkish ultranationalists had been brought to the island to intimidate voters. And the largest Greek Cypriot political party, the communist group AKEL, which has the potential to sway the vote, withdrew its support for the plan.

“This solution is no solution,” said Philippos Stavrou, a 37-year-old Greek Cypriot, who, like many people interviewed, expressed fear, distrust and little taste for compromise. “It is unjust. It makes legal the illegal invasion, occupation and colonization over the last 30 years of part of my island by Turkey.”

“This is a trap set up by the Europeans to end the Turkish presence on the island for good,” said Abuzer Karakus, a 54-year-old Turkish Cypriot farmer. “Their true aim is the withdrawal of Turkish troops who have protected us all these years.”

Ethnic fighting racked Cyprus throughout the 1960s. The island was divided in 1974 when Turkish troops invaded the north after a coup by Greek Cypriot military officers hoping to unite the island with Greece. About 200,000 Greek Cypriots fled to the south. An estimated 50,000 Turkish settlers were moved into the north from Turkey, some seizing the homes abandoned by those who fled.

The breakaway north declared itself the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus, which is recognized only by Turkey.

The Annan plan envisions a loose federation-style government linking two autonomous ethnic states. It would allow the return of many but not all displaced Greek Cypriots to their homes and require most Turkish settlers to relocate.

The number of Greek and Turkish soldiers would gradually decline. But some Turkish troop presence would be allowed indefinitely, a stipulation that has angered many Greek Cypriots, who also demand that all property lost in 1974 be restored.

The European Union has pledged 2 billion euros, or about $2.4 billion, to help put the plan in motion, and Washington has pledged $400 million, but only if voters approve the plan.

Cyprus is one of 10 nations that will join an expanding EU on May 1, a move that historically has brought countries numerous economic and political benefits. The more affluent Greek Cypriots will join whether or not the plan is approved, but the less developed Turkish side will be included only if the accord passes. Greek Cypriots can, in effect, veto inclusion of their Turkish counterparts.

In unusually strong language directed at a future member, EU officials said they were bitterly disappointed that the Greek Cypriot government had undermined the plan. Guenter Verheugen, the commissioner in charge of EU enlargement, accused the government of pretending to favor the plan, only to work against it.

“I personally feel that I have been cheated by the government of the Republic of Cyprus,” he said. “We are just inches away from our objective [uniting the island], but I have little hope left for being able to push forward those last remaining few inches.”

Greek Cypriot President Tassos Papadopoulos stunned the EU when he urged his people to vote no. EU officials say they have been blocked from appearing on Greek Cypriot television.

If a divided Cyprus becomes a member, the EU will have to contend with a volatile fault line on its new border. Nicosia would be Europe’s last divided capital, and Cyprus would be seen as a liability within the bloc, less able to make its case and press its agenda, analysts said.

Some residents of this sun-dappled island said they could put aside their objections and see advantages in the plan.

“I don’t like it, but I fear that if we don’t accept it, the opportunity will not arise again for a long time,” said Nicos Michael, 64, a Greek Cypriot shopkeeper in Nicosia. “Sometimes you have to say I’ll cut my losses and hope for a better future for the next generations. I’m fed up with this situation, and I also believe business will boom after a solution.”

Across the divide, engineer Enver Uluerli, 45, was enthusiastic. “I will say a big fat yes!” he said. “The plan grants Turkish Cypriots equality with the Greeks, it will end our international isolation, bring us real democracy and free us from corrupt and authoritarian rule. Justice must be dealt to both Turks and Greeks.”

But feelings here die hard, especially among those for whom the hatreds and emotions of 1974 are still raw.

“I don’t get to go back to my home, which I was driven from at gunpoint by Turkish troops who also killed my older brother,” said Anna Dimitriou, a 46-year-old homemaker and refugee from the northern port city of Kyrenia. “What has the other side done to deserve being allowed into Europe and enjoy the benefits? Is it not bad enough that they have stolen my land, killed my brother and now I have to pay for them too?”

“Look, the Greeks did this to me,” Osman Cakmak, who fought with a Turkish Cypriot militia 30 years ago, said as he lifted a trouser leg to reveal a deep bullet scar. “They tried to kill me and my family. I don’t believe in peace. I will vote no.”

Times staff writer Tracy Wilkinson in Rome contributed to this report.