Arafat Is a Target in Name Only

Yasser Arafat has led a charmed life with a curse attached. He is apparently fated to always survive but to never succeed. Now Israeli officials are saying they feel free to target him for killing, as they did the last two leaders of the Islamist terrorist group Hamas.

For a variety of reasons, though, Arafat again will probably be immune from the violence he has brought to so many others.

The Hamas leaders had set themselves up as living martyrs, and their passage to another world was almost an anticlimax. But Arafat, at this stage, would be more troublesome as a dead martyr than he is alive.

Actually, Arafat does not even meet Israel’s own strict criterion in defining a target for elimination -- someone who has directly planned or authorized terrorist attacks. Arafat has carefully avoided directly authorizing terrorist attacks, even though he praises, encourages, pays and even buys arms for those who carry them out. And there is no denying that the Western world would be substantially more critical of Israel for assassinating Arafat than it was for the deaths of Hamas leaders Sheik Ahmed Yassin and Abdulaziz Rantisi. Even the European Union, friendly to the Palestinians, has listed Hamas (albeit only its “military wing,” a meaningless distinction within that organization) as a terrorist group.

The world community may accept the targeting of Hamas leaders in a time of a global war on terror, but Arafat is a man with whom international leaders have negotiated for many years.

He is also the Palestinian leader recognized by all the Arab states, even if Arab leaders speak disparagingly of him in private. If Arafat were to be killed, Arab countries would feel compelled to do something about it. The costs to Israel could be quite high.

The world sees Arafat as the leader of the Palestinian nationalist movement, not of an Islamist radical group. The radical Islamists openly call for Israel’s destruction and are unlikely to change that position. Arafat is also not going to make peace, and he will prevent anyone else from doing so during his lifetime. The only conceivable peace agreement is one that will have to be made with one of Arafat’s successors. But to kill the man who is the founder and symbol of their movement would make that impossible for anyone who comes later.

In addition, at 74 years old and ailing, Arafat is on his way out. In reality, the post-Arafat era has already begun, with ambitious Palestinians maneuvering to succeed him even if they are unwilling to challenge him directly.

Truth be told, Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon has been vehemently against either deporting or killing Arafat. In his view, Arafat must be kept right where he is and held responsible for the violence and chaos he causes.

Sharon believes that only when the Palestinians become sufficiently disillusioned with Arafat will they come realize the value of a negotiated compromise peace.

For his part, despite his public bravado, Arafat is rather eager to remain alive. He has already responded to the threat by expelling about 20 leading terrorists from his Ramallah compound, something that he had long promised but failed to do.

“The more destruction I see,” Arafat once said, “the stronger I get.” His own destruction, however, is another matter entirely.

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Barry Rubin, editor of the Middle East Review of International Affairs, is coauthor of the recently published “Yasir Arafat: A Political Biography” (Oxford University Press).