Bush and N.Y. Both in Spotlight

On the eve of his nominating convention, President Bush is facing a tighter and tougher reelection fight than many of his fellow Republicans expected, elevating the stakes -- and jitters -- as Bush heads into one of the most crucial weeks of his reelection bid.

Though recent public opinion polls show a slight tilt in the president’s favor, the race against Democratic Sen. John F. Kerry remains essentially tied, making it far too close for the comfort of several GOP strategists who say Bush has yet to present the forward-looking agenda they deem essential to him winning a second term.

“I’d like to see him do more than just Kerry-bashing,” said Dick Dresner, a Republican consultant for candidates across the country. “He has to provide some overall vision and a few specifics around it.... He has to show some sense of optimism, where the future’s going.”

The president has promised to offer that look-ahead in his acceptance speech Thursday night, the highlight of four days of presidential pomp and political stagecraft that begins Monday at Madison Square Garden.

“The speech will focus on moving forward, what needs to be done in order for America to be a hopeful place, what needs to be done to spread the peace,” Bush said in an interview published Friday in USA Today. “That’s what I think a convention speech ought to be: vision and how to achieve the vision, and that’s what the people will hear.”

As the president campaigned Saturday in Ohio, tens of thousands of Republican faithful, political activists and convention chroniclers poured into this hot, humid city, fortified by an army of police swarming Manhattan.

Despite the massive show of force, and the attendant street tie-ups, seen-it-all New Yorkers seemed blase.

In an opening wave of demonstrations, thousands of abortion-rights activists marched across the Brooklyn Bridge, encountering abortion foes on the Manhattan side. Officers kept the two factions apart and there was no violence.

Arab American groups, denied a rally permit for Central Park’s Great Lawn, gathered on the green anyway, largely blending in with sunbathers and softball players.

Across the country, in Washington state, Kerry finished a West Coast campaign swing with a rally in Tacoma, a blue-collar city about 30 miles south of Seattle, before leaving for his family’s vacation house in Nantucket, Mass. He plans to keep a low profile for much of the Republican convention.

On Saturday, Kerry challenged Bush’s record on both national security and the economy in remarks to 12,000 cheering supporters in a parking lot overlooking Puget Sound.

Vowing to “fight a more effective, smarter war on terror that brings countries to our side,” Kerry told the crowd, “Don’t let them spread fear. Don’t let the other side tell you that there’s only one way to do this.”

Bush also came under scathing attack from retired Army Gen. Wesley K. Clark, who called him “an incompetent commander in chief.”

With the Democratic nominee at his side, Clark blamed Bush for attacks on Kerry’s Vietnam War record. “An attack on John Kerry is an attack on every one of us, and let’s tell George Bush it’s time to stop,” Clark yelled from a stage packed with veterans and scores of other Kerry supporters.

Bush, meanwhile, campaigned in Ohio for the second time in as many weeks.

Covering the closely contested state by bus, the president told crowds he understood their economic anxieties and promised better days to come. “We’re headed in the right direction, but there’s more work to do in America,” he told thousands of supporters at a town square rally in Troy.

Later in the day, at a stop in Lima, Bush struck a theme that White House aides said he would highlight in his acceptance speech: the power of liberty. “I believe that liberty can transform lives,” the president said. “It’s a core of my belief.”

The president is expected to use his Thursday night speech to unveil a handful of initiatives on issues such as education and healthcare, which could address two of his greatest political liabilities: doubts about his handling of the economy as well as the net loss of more than 1 million jobs since he took office.

Repeated polls have shown that support for Bush is buoyed by public approval of the way he has handled the threat of terrorism, and that is expected to be one of the dominant themes of the convention.

The events of Sept. 11, in particular, will be a constant subtext of the gathering, the first the party has held in this strongly Democratic city. (At one point, there was talk of both parties holding their conventions here, in a show of support and solidarity with the people of New York.)

Two opening night speakers, former New York Mayor Rudolph W. Giuliani and Sen. John McCain of Arizona, are expected to make Sept. 11 and Bush’s response a central theme of their remarks. Ground zero, where a pair of hijacked jetliners brought down the twin towers of the World Trade Center, is just a few miles from Madison Square Garden, though no official events are planned at the site.

“During the worst day of my life, the worst days of my life, President Bush stood by us,” Giuliani told audiences last week as he introduced Bush on a campaign stop in New Mexico. “He kept every commitment, did everything he could, to rebuild my city and to make my country better than they were before that terrible event.”

Giuliani and McCain are two of the more moderate faces that will be prominently featured during the convention. Another is California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, who appears Tuesday night .

Democrats have derided the convention program as “a masquerade ball,” in the words of Democratic National Committee Chairman Terry McAuliffe. Republicans said it shows the breadth and open-mindedness of the GOP.

Along with Bush’s proposals for a second term, the convention program calls for plenty of contrasts with Kerry, who made his biography and Vietnam War record the centerpiece of his nominating convention last month in Boston. That left a substantive void, Republican strategists believe, that Bush and GOP convention planners are eager to fill during the next several days.

“Sen. Kerry himself dedicated only 27 seconds of a 50-minute speech to his 20-year Senate career,” Republican Party Chairman Ed Gillespie said in welcoming remarks Thursday to state party leaders from around the country. “You can be sure here in New York City we will be talking about President Bush’s record of accomplishments during his first term.”

But Karl Rove, the president’s chief political advisor, said the critique of Kerry would be different -- meatier and less mean-spirited -- than the one Democrats aimed at Bush.

“That was name-calling in Boston,” Rove said. “We will cite what [Kerry] has said and how he has voted. We will use the things he has said and done ... to make clear what the big choices are.”

Most of the harshest rhetoric is likely to come from speakers other than the president, leaving Bush the opportunity to frame a positive message when he wraps up the convention with Thursday night’s speech.

With little more than nine weeks left in the contest, the close nature of the presidential race is far different than many in the party had anticipated a year or so ago when Bush was enjoying historic approval ratings and there was bullish talk of building a permanent Republican majority across the country.

Even after Bush’s political standing began slipping amid concerns about the war in Iraq, there was still great confidence within GOP ranks.

“If you’d asked me in January, I thought we were headed down Coronation Street running against Howard Dean,” said Pete Ernaut, a GOP strategist in Nevada, referring to the onetime Democratic front-runner. “I think John Kerry has certainly done much better than his early performance in the primaries would have led anyone to believe.”

Ernaut, who is advising the White House on strategy in Nevada, said the Republicans he talked to still expected Bush to win in November. But they are anxious, he said, and expect the result to be tight.

Others, who did not want to be identified to avoid antagonizing the White House, were blunter still.

“With an incumbent it shouldn’t be this close,” said one Republican strategist, a veteran of several presidential campaigns. “Bush’s problem is he went into Iraq and can’t get out. That’s not playing well. The second side of the coin is the economy is very, very soft. That’s two problems for him.”

Another long-serving GOP strategist concurred, saying there is “a lot of apprehension on the part of Republicans.”

“They believe deep down that Bush will prevail in this election,” the strategist said. “But time is getting short and, to use his phrase, he hasn’t turned the corner yet.”

Although these Republican insiders expressed concerns about Bush or his campaign -- in private, at least -- they were even more critical of Kerry, suggesting a stronger candidate would have placed the president in even greater jeopardy by now.

Several party loyalists said they sensed an opportunity -- and perhaps a turning point -- as Kerry has dipped in recent polls while fending off charges from a veterans group attacking his military record in Vietnam and his actions as a protester afterward.

“Kerry has been distracted the last two weeks, talking about incidents 30 years ago rather than traditional Democratic issues like healthcare, Social Security and education,” said K.B. Forbes, a strategist for conservative candidates and causes.

“If Bush comes out and reaffirms his national security credentials and lays out a domestic policy, even though it will be a tough battle with eight or nine weeks left, he’ll win in the end.”

Rove merely chuckled when asked about the nervousness in Republican ranks.

“We’ve said all along it’s going to be a very, very, very close election,” he said. “We were saying that at a point where nobody, frankly, believed us.”

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Times staff writers Edwin Chen, Michael Finnegan and James Gerstenzang contributed to this report.

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The convention floor

More than 2,500 delegates will gather in New York’s Madison Square Garden for the Republican National Convention on Monday. Here is the configuration of the convention floor for the first three days. On Thursday, when President Bush will accept his party’s nomination, the floor will be rearranged.

The convention day by day:

Monday Theme: Courage of a nation Prime time speakers: - New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg - Former Mayor Rudy Giuliani - Sen. John McCain (Ariz.)

Tuesday Theme: Compassion of the American people Prime time speakers: - First Lady Laura Bush - Sec. of Education Rod Paige - California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger

Wednesday Theme: Land of opportunity Prime time speakers: - Mrs. Lynne Cheney - 7:25 p.m., Vice President Dick Cheney - Sen. Zell Miller (D.-Ga.)

Thursday Theme: Build a safer world and a more hopeful America Prime time speakers: - New York Gov. George E. Pataki - 7:15 p.m., President Bush

Additional speakers (no dates announced): Sen. Bill Frist (Tenn.) Sen. Elizabeth Hanford Dole (N.C.) Sen. Rick Santorum (Pa.) Sen. Sam Brownback (Kan.) House Speaker J. Dennis Hastert (Ill.) Maryland Lt. Gov. Michael Steele Rep. Heather Wilson (N.M.) Rep. Anne M. Northup (Ky.) Former Miss America Erika Harold Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney Massachusetts Lt. Gov. Kerry Healey Nevada Atty. Gen. Brian Sandoval Bernard Kerik, 40th New York City police commissioner Labor Secretary Elaine Chao Rep. Paul Ryan (Wis.) Michael Reagan, eldest son of former President Reagan

Entertainers: - Country stars Brooks & Dunn, Lee Ann Womack, the Gatlin Brothers, Darryl Worley and Sara Evans - Christian rockers Third Day and Michael W. Smith - Tenor Daniel Rodriguez, a retired New York City police officer - Latin pop performer Jaci Velasquez - Surfer Daize Shayne, whose first pop album came out last year - Austin-based band Dexter Freebish - Disabled singer Gracie Rosenberger - Gospel performer Donnie McClurkin - Actor Ron Silver - “Survivor” contestant Elisabeth Hasselbeck - Soul-inspired singer-songwriter Dana Glover

Times shown are Pacific Daylight Time

Sources: Republican National Convention. Graphics reporting by Susannah Rosenblatt

* (BEGIN TEXT OF INFOBOX) * STATE DELEGATES Alabama 48 Alaska 29 American Samoa 9 Arizona 52 Arkansas 35 California 173 Colorado 50 Connecticut 30 Delaware 18 District of Columbia 19 Florida 112 Georgia 69 Guam 9 Hawaii 20 Idaho 32 Illinois 73 Indiana 55 Iowa 31 Kansas 39 Kentucky 46 Louisiana 45 Maine 21 Maryland 39 Massachusetts 44 Michigan 61 Minnesota 41 Mississippi 38 Missouri 57 Montana 28 Nebraska 35 Nevada 33 New Hampshire 32 New Jersey 52 New Mexico 24 New York 102 North Carolina 67 North Dakota 26 Ohio 91 Oklahoma 41 Oregon 31 Pennsylvania 75 Puerto Rico 23 Rhode Island 21 South Carolina 46 South Dakota 27 Tennessee 55 Texas 138 Utah 36 Vermont 18 Virgin Islands 9 Virginia 64 Washington 41 West Virginia 30 Wisconsin 40 Wyoming 28

TOTAL 2,509*

* The 32nd member of the Iowa delegation is unable to attend.