Palestinian Future in the Balance

A smooth transition of power in the post-Arafat Palestinian Authority has given impetus to optimism among Palestinians. The setting of dates for presidential and local elections, to be followed by parliamentary elections, is generating excitement and raising hopes about peacemaking and state-building.

If the current optimism and hope are sustained in the next few weeks, the next Palestinian president will be Mahmoud Abbas. If fears and threats prevail, Marwan Barghouti will win.

Abbas, one of the main architects of the 1993 Oslo peace accords with Israel, a senior, old-guard colleague of Yasser Arafat and a former prime minister, has replaced Arafat as the chairman of the Palestine Liberation Organization executive committee. He is the candidate of Fatah, the largest faction in Palestinian politics. Although Abbas was criticized in the past for his open criticism of the violence of the intifada and as being too conciliatory toward Israel, Fatah was quick to rally behind him: It viewed him -- as evident by Fatah’s public statements -- as capable of keeping the movement together, preventing the collapse of the Palestinian Authority and making best use of international support for statehood. Indeed, a poll I conducted early this month showed that a majority of Palestinians regarded him as the most able to reach a peace agreement with Israel, improve economic conditions and impose law and order.

Barghouti is a senior Fatah leader serving five life sentences in an Israeli jail. Running as an independent candidate, he speaks for the young generation of Fatah, a generation that came to view the old guard as corrupt and ineffective for failing to build good governance or end the Israeli occupation. Although he supported the objectives of the peace process, Barghouti came to view violence as an effective tool to end the occupation. He is widely seen as the leader of the intifada and the one most able to stand up to Israel and force it to end its occupation.

Many Palestinians see Barghouti as the one most likely to maintain the legacy of Arafat: defiance of Israel and strong commitment to Palestinian national rights. Some view the candidacy of Barghouti as a bargaining chip that will be withdrawn only when the old guard agrees to far-reaching reforms within Fatah and the Palestinian political system.

Over the last three years, Barghouti’s popularity has increased along with the intensity of the intifada, while that of Abbas plummeted to little or nothing. The intifada has brought with it a high level of fear among Palestinians, with Israeli violence, collective punishment and settlement-building diminishing hope of peace through negotiations. Yet, with the passing of Arafat, Israeli willingness to withdraw from the Gaza Strip and international commitment to a Palestinian state, more and more Palestinians are becoming optimistic about the future of the peace process. Recent polling information showed significant decline in support for militant groups such as Hamas and a jump in the level of support for Fatah. But it also showed a close race between Abbas and Barghouti.

Increased optimism generated by release of Palestinian prisoners and removal of checkpoints and other Israeli measures viewed by Palestinians as collective punishment would favor Abbas. An Abbas victory would produce more optimism, opening the door wide open for meaningful negotiations with Israel and significant internal political and security reforms.

Increased fear, generated by continued Israeli assassinations of Palestinian leaders and military incursions onto Palestinian lands, would favor Barghouti.

A victory by Barghouti, who would remain in an Israeli prison, would return the Palestinian political system to the days of Arafat -- dysfunctional with its institutions paralyzed. The ability of the Palestinians to engage the Israelis and the international community in meaningful negotiations would never materialize.

The behavior in the next few weeks of the two political actors will shape the future of Israeli-Palestinian relations for the foreseeable future.