Confidence in Kerry Increases in Key States

Sen. John F. Kerry, propelled by his victories in the first round of Democratic contests, has established a huge advantage in Missouri, but leads only narrowly in Arizona and trails native son Sen. John Edwards in South Carolina, a new Los Angeles Times/CNN poll has found.

In each of those states -- the three most closely watched of the seven that will hold primaries and caucuses Tuesday -- the key words for Kerry are capability and electability. Likely voters in all three states cite confidence in his qualifications for the presidency and his ability to effectively contest President Bush in November.

At the same time, the poll underscores the collapse of former frontrunner Howard Dean, who trails distantly in all three states and attracts double-digit support only in Arizona.

Fewer than one in 11 voters in Arizona, Missouri and South Carolina considered Dean the most qualified to serve as commander in chief. Fewer than one in 14 voters in all three states believed he was temperamentally best-suited for the presidency.

Still, the survey shows the potential for volatility in the final days before the contests: At least one-fifth of likely voters in each state say they remain undecided, and about two-fifths of those who have selected a candidate say they could still change their mind.

The poll also offers warning signs for Democrats looking toward the general election. There is a conservative streak in these states, even among voters participating in the party’s primary.

The survey finds that Democratic voters in all three states take more conservative positions on immigration reform than the candidates have proposed.

And in Missouri -- a state Democrats hope to target in the fall around economic issues -- the poll finds a prominent streak of social conservatism, with a solid majority of Democratic primary voters saying they prefer a nominee who opposes civil unions for gays.

The Times/CNN survey, supervised by Times Polling Director Susan Pinkus, surveyed 451 likely Democratic voters in Arizona, 448 in South Carolina and 545 in Missouri. It has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 4 percentage points in Missouri, and 5 percentage points in Arizona and South Carolina.

Kerry’s lead is so large in Missouri, the state with the most delegates at stake Tuesday, that it would take a dramatic reversal to deny him victory. But the polling margins in Arizona and in South Carolina are close enough that shifts among the undecided and loosely committed could tip the balance in either of those contests, the poll suggests.

In Missouri, the survey found Kerry attracting 37%, compared with 11% for Edwards, 7% for Dean and 6% for retired Gen. Wesley K. Clark.

Thirty percent of likely voters said they remained undecided, and four in 10 of those who have picked a candidate said they could switch before Tuesday.

Kerry is demonstrating an impressively broad-based appeal in Missouri, as he did in Iowa and New Hampshire. He leads among women and men, whites and minority voters, liberals and moderates, and voters with and without college educations.

In Arizona, Kerry leads Clark, who has spent heavily on advertising in the state, by 29% to 22%, an advantage just within the poll’s margin of error. Dean, who has also invested heavily in the state and led in polls there through early January, has plummeted to 13%, while Edwards has attracted 8% of the voters.

Of likely Arizona voters, 22% say they remain undecided, while nearly two-fifths of those with a candidate say they could still switch.

The support for candidates among voters in Arizona reflects sharper divisions than in Missouri: Kerry runs better with women, liberals and college-educated voters, while Clark runs best among moderates and those without college degrees. Latinos split almost evenly between Kerry, Dean and Clark.

Only in South Carolina does Kerry trail.

Edwards, who was born in the state and has acknowledged he would be forced to quit the race if he didn’t win it, draws 32%, compared with 20% for Kerry -- an advantage outside the poll’s margin of error.

Clark, who has invested significantly in both time and television advertising in South Carolina, has fallen to 8%, with Dean attracting 7%. The Rev. Al Sharpton of New York, who has campaigned extensively in African American churches across the state, draws 10% of the black vote and 5% overall.

Of South Carolina voters, 23% say they remain undecided, while almost two-fifths of those who have picked a candidate say they could still switch.

South Carolina is the first state on the primary calendar where African Americans represent a significant share of the vote. As many as half of those who vote Tuesday are expected to be black. They give both Kerry and Edwards about one-fifth of their support, with Sharpton attracting half that much. A third of blacks in South Carolina said they were still undecided among the seven candidates.

Edwards runs better with younger voters and especially with independents, who can vote in the state’s open primary. While Democrats split evenly between Edwards and Kerry, the North Carolina senator leads among independents by almost three to one.

Also voting on Tuesday are North Dakota, New Mexico, Delaware and Oklahoma. An MSNBC/Reuters/Zogby tracking poll released Saturday showed Clark clinging to a narrow lead over Kerry in Oklahoma, with Edwards a close third.

Sen. Joe Lieberman of Connecticut, who finished a distant fifth in New Hampshire Tuesday, isn’t a factor in any of the states polled by the Times and CNN. He attracts 3% in Arizona, 4% in South Carolina and 6% in Missouri.

Though only about one-fifth of voters in each state say last week’s results in New Hampshire directly influenced their decision, the Times/CNN poll underscores the lift Kerry has received from his victories in Iowa and New Hampshire.

After displaying little support in earlier surveys in Arizona, South Carolina and Missouri, Kerry is now impressing voters in each with his qualifications and potential strength as a nominee.

The poll asked voters to consider three dimensions of the candidates’ qualifications to serve as president; in each state, the Massachusetts senator ran well on all three.

When voters were asked which candidate was best able to serve as commander in chief, Kerry led solidly in Missouri and ran about evenly with Clark in Arizona and South Carolina.

When voters were asked which candidate had the best temperament for the job, Kerry led solidly in Arizona and Missouri and trailed Edwards narrowly in South Carolina.

When voters were asked which candidate would “substantially change the way things are done in Washington,” Kerry again led in Arizona and Missouri and tied with Edwards in South Carolina.

No other contender impressed voters on all three dimensions. Clark ran close to Kerry as a potential commander in chief in Arizona and South Carolina, but finished well behind him on that measure in Missouri. Clark also trailed Kerry in all three states on temperament and the ability to change Washington.

Outside South Carolina, Edwards trailed significantly in all three areas. Even in his birth state, only one in seven voters considered him the most qualified to be commander in chief.

Most starkly, the results of these questions underscored the steep erosion of confidence in Dean after weeks of controversial comments, losses in Iowa and New Hampshire, and the widespread backlash against his concession speech in Iowa.

Though voters rated him low on his qualifications as commander in chief and on temperament, Dean retained more than trace support as a source of potential change. About one in eight in both Arizona and South Carolina, and one in 11 in Missouri, believed he offered the best bet for changing Washington.

That may help explain why Dean, in his effort to salvage his candidacy, is relying so heavily on the argument that he is more committed to change, and that he is more effective at delivering it than Kerry.

As in Iowa and New Hampshire, most likely voters in all three states said they placed a higher priority on a candidate agreeing with them on the issues than on a candidate’s ability to beat Bush in November. Democratic voters in the three big states voting Tuesday -- like voters in Iowa and New Hampshire -- also are focused on domestic issues. Still, the war in Iraq looms larger in Arizona, Missouri and South Carolina than it did in the first two contests.

In each state, the economy and jobs top the list of issues voters most want to hear the candidates discuss.

Voters in all of the states also show a marked skepticism about free trade, with a plurality in Missouri and Arizona, and a significant majority in South Carolina, saying they prefer a nominee hostile to trade deals like the North American Free Trade Agreement.

Healthcare and Iraq also top the voters’ priority list. And at least three-fifths of voters in all three states (three-fourths in South Carolina) say they want a nominee who would not “make it easier for illegal immigrants to become citizens of the United States.”

In direct conflict with that sentiment, all of the leading Democratic candidates have proposed plans to provide a path to citizenship for millions of illegal immigrants; Bush has advanced a plan that would allow illegal immigrants to work legally in the U.S., but would permit relatively few of them to move toward citizenship.

While nearly three-fifths of likely Arizona voters say they would prefer a nominee who supports civil unions, nearly that large a percentage of voters in both South Carolina and Missouri say they would prefer a candidate who opposes them. All of the Democratic contenders support civil unions.

And while only about one in five Arizona voters say they approve of Bush’s job performance -- about the same as in a Times exit poll in New Hampshire -- nearly a third of Democratic voters in South Carolina and roughly two-fifths in Missouri give Bush positive marks.

These conservative signals from voters won’t matter much in South Carolina, a state both sides agree is likely to vote Republican in the general election. But they could be ominous for Democrats in Missouri, which the party expects to target in the fall, and in Arizona, which Democrats hope to bring into play.

*

(BEGIN TEXT OF INFOBOX)

Key primary election polls

Arizona, South Carolina and Missouri are three of the seven states that will hold either a Democratic caucus or primary election next Tuesday. The Times/CNN poll interviewed likely Democratic voters in all three states.

*

Q: If the Feb. 3 Democratic primary for president were being held today and these were the candidates, for whom would you vote?

*--* Ariz. S.C. Mo. Wesley K. Clark 22% 8% 6% Howard Dean 13 7 7 John Edwards 8 32 11 John F. Kerry 29 20 37 Dennis J. Kucinich 2 - - Joe Lieberman 3 4 6 Al Sharpton 1 5 2 Someone else - 1 1 Don’t know 22 23 30

*--*

*

Q: What issue or problem would you particularly like to hear discussed by the candidates running for president this year?+

*--* Ariz. S.C. Mo. Iraq war 28% 20% 10% Economy 24 20 17 Healthcare 23 21 24 Education 12 11 9 Jobs 8 23 9

*--*

+Up to two replies accepted. Top five responses shown.

*

Q: Regardless of your choice for president in the Democratic primary, who do you think is the most qualified to be commander in chief?

*--* Ariz. S.C. Mo. None of them 1% 6% 5% Clark 27 22 13 Dean 9 6 5 Edwards 5 14 8 Kerry 29 22 36 Kucinich 1 - - Lieberman 6 8 8 Sharpton 1 2 2 All equally 2 1 1 Don’t know 19 19 22

*--*

*

Q: Regardless of your choice for president in the Democratic primary, who do you think has the best temperament to be president?

*--* Ariz. S.C. Mo. None of them - 2% 4% Clark 19 10 6 Dean 7 6 4 Edwards 10 29 13 Kerry 29 24 34 Kucinich - - - Lieberman 9 11 11 Sharpton 2 2 1 All equally 4 1 1 Don’t know 20 15 26

*--*

*

Q: Would you prefer a Democratic nominee who would repeal all of the Bush tax cuts or a nominee who would only repeal provisions affecting wealthy families?

*--* Ariz. S.C. Mo. All tax cuts 33% 33% 28% Taxes affecting wealthy families 53 47 47 Don’t repeal tax cuts (volunteered) 4 8 8 Don’t know 10 12 17

*--*

*

Q: Do you prefer a Democratic nominee who believes that international trade agreements will benefit the U.S. economy or a nominee who believes they will hurt the U.S. economy?

*--* Ariz. S.C. Mo. Benefit economy 36% 25% 31% Hurt economy 46 57 44 No difference 3 1 5 Don’t know 15 17 20

*--*

*

Q: Do you prefer a Democratic nominee who would make it easier for illegal immigrants to become U.S. citizens, or one who doesn’t?

*--* Ariz. S.C. Mo. Easier 28% 16% 27% Not easier 62 75 60 Don’t know 10 9 13

*--*

*

Q: Do you prefer a Democratic nominee who supports civil unions between same-sex couples that are not marriages, but would give similar legal protection in areas such as inheritance, taxes, health insurance and hospital visits, or a nominee who doesn’t?

*--* Ariz. S.C. Mo. Supports civil unions 58% 35% 35% Doesn’t support civil unions 31 56 55 Don’t know 11 9 10

*--*

*

Q: Would you prefer a Democratic nominee who favored the war with Iraq or one who opposed it?

*--* Ariz. S.C. Mo. Favored war 30% 39% 44% Opposed war 61 50 45 Don’t know 9 11 11

*--*

*

Q: Regardless of your choice for president in the Democratic primary, which candidate do you think will substantially change the way things are done in Washington?

*--* Ariz. S.C. Mo. None of them 11% 11% 9% Clark 16 9 5 Dean 12 13 9 Edwards 7 20 10 Kerry 22 20 28 Kucinich 3 1 1 Lieberman 5 4 5 Sharpton 4 5 4 equally 2 3 2 Don’t know 18 14 27

*--*

*

All results shown are among likely Democratic primary voters. - indicates less than 0.5% Numbers may not total 100% where more than one response was accepted or some answer categories are not shown.

*

Times Poll results are also available at www.latimes.com/timespoll

*

How the poll was conducted: The Los Angeles Times/CNN poll contacted 3,769 adults in Arizona, South Carolina and Missouri, including 451 likely Democratic primary voters in Arizona, 448 in South Carolina and 545 in Missouri, by telephone Jan. 28-30. Telephone numbers were chosen from a list of all exchanges in each of these three states. Random-digit dialing techniques were used so that listed and unlisted numbers were contacted. Each state sample of adults was weighted slightly to conform with census figures for sex, race, age and education in each of the three states. The margin of sampling error for likely Democratic primary voters in Arizona and in South Carolina is plus or minus 5 percentage points; for Missouri voters it is 4 points. For certain subgroups the error margin may be somewhat higher. Poll results can also be affected by factors such as question wording and the order in which questions are presented. Interviews were conducted in English and Spanish in Arizona. Interviewing in Missouri was conducted by Interviewing Service of America Inc., Van Nuys, Calif.