Dean Bandwagon Has Lost Its Luster

Three days before the Iowa caucuses, former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean passed Rep. Dick Gephardt of Missouri in House endorsements when Rep. Carolyn C. Kilpatrick of Missouri became the 35th representative to endorse his candidacy for the Democratic presidential nomination.

That Jan. 16 announcement capped Dean’s vigorous campaign to pocket as many endorsements as possible from high-level officials -- none more dramatic than the one a month earlier from former Vice President Al Gore. Gore’s embrace, soon followed by endorsements from former Sen. Bill Bradley of New Jersey and Sen. Tom Harkin of Iowa, seemed to cement Dean’s status as the front-runner.

Now, with Dean’s candidacy in trouble, some politicians who jumped early on his bandwagon are expressing regrets, although none has done so publicly.

“I’ve heard people say, in a joking way, that they sure picked the wrong horse,” said Rep. Stephanie Tubbs Jones of Ohio, who -- though courted by both Dean and Sen. John F. Kerry of Massachusetts -- has steadfastly refused to endorse a candidate. “They were trying to kick up support for him and create a front-runner. It did not pan out as anticipated.”

Members of Congress who endorsed Dean still hold a weekly conference call with the candidate, discussing the campaign schedule and emphasizing the need to win a primary soon. Rep. Zoe Lofgren of San Jose organizes the weekly calls from the dining room of her home so she won’t violate a ban on political activity in congressional offices. The first member of Congress to endorse Dean -- last April -- Lofgren said she is “glad I endorsed him, and glad I endorsed him when I did. It helped get the attention he needed when he needed it.”

Rep. Xavier Becerra of Los Angeles, who endorsed Dean on Dec. 15, said Wednesday that he stood by his choice. “I’d love to still see him be the nominee,” Becerra said. “I’m still enthusiastic. I believe in his message.”

He acknowledged that Dean’s standing nationally had plummeted and that the former governor had to make a breakthrough someplace soon. “Just as he was riding high early on, now it’s a little tougher,” Becerra said, adding, “He still has a chance.”

But many on Capitol Hill who loudly supported Dean are now much harder to find for comments on the campaign. A half dozen did not return calls; an aide to one congressman said his boss would not be calling back because “there have been a lot of changes in the campaign.”

An early announcement of support can benefit the endorser -- access to a new president, influence on his decisions, perhaps even a Cabinet post.

“Someone in New Jersey compared it to the lottery,” said Micah Rasmussen, press secretary to Gov. James E. McGreevey of New Jersey, who endorsed Dean in December even though his state’s primary is not until June. “It only costs $1, but it could pay off big.”

McGreevey has no regrets, said Rasmussen, noting that the endorsement reflected the consensus of many New Jersey Democrats. But that may not be the case for other officeholders who jumped on the Dean bandwagon early. Choosing wrong could have consequences.

“The more prominent the endorser, the worse it looks,” said Ross K. Baker, a political scientist at Rutgers University. Take Gore: Already ridiculed for losing his home state of Tennessee in the 2000 election, Gore, by endorsing Dean, cemented a reputation for political ineptitude, Baker said.

“That’s why [former President] Clinton has been so circumspect,” Baker said. “Endorsements can hurt people prominent in politics.”

In the early 20th century, Baker said, candidates often sought the endorsement of university presidents because they were eager to wrap themselves in intellectual glory. These days, sports figures are prized.

In Oklahoma, Barry Switzer, the football coach who took the University of Oklahoma to three national championships, endorsed Sen. John Edwards of North Carolina last weekend, when he was third in the polls. The Edwards campaign used Switzer’s endorsement in recorded phone calls to voters, and Edwards finished in Oklahoma in a virtual tie with retired Army Gen. Wesley K. Clark.

Celebrity endorsements can offer a campaign a sense of excitement. “Celebrities are like the carnival barkers, getting someone into the tent to listen to the candidate,” said Charles Cook, editor of the nonpartisan Cook Political Report.

Most of the time, flirtations between Hollywood and Washington do little damage to either. “If Clark drops out, I doubt it will hurt Madonna’s career,” said Baker. Actor Martin Sheen endorsed Dean, but most viewers of NBC’s “The West Wing,” where he portrays the president, already knew of his liberal political views.

“Political activism is seen as part of the scenery here,” said Donna Bojarsky, a Los Angeles consultant who advises celebrities on public policy matters. “It’s a respected activity -- democracy doing its thing.”

Some Dean supporters still express a buoyant delight in their choice. Harkin, who not only endorsed Dean but stood next to the candidate applauding his overheated concession speech in Iowa, has no regrets, said a top advisor.

“Sen. Harkin has stayed in touch with Dean on a regular basis,” said aide Jeff Link. “He’s still in the thick of it, trying to sort through if there’s a path to victory here.”

Link added: “He’s a very loyal guy. His constitution is one that says, ‘If I’m for you, I’m for you.’ ”

Voters may give their elected officials a pass if their candidate falls short, particularly if the motive for the endorsement was loyalty or affinity or even political expediency. Rep. Jesse L. Jackson Jr. (D-Ill.) stumped for Dean in South Carolina, where the former Vermont governor got 4% of the African American vote, compared with 37% for Edwards and 34% for Clark. Few believe the embrace will hurt Jackson with his Chicago constituents.

Which may prove that in a much-covered presidential contest, voters don’t pay much heed to endorsements.

And if an endorser backs away from a candidate, as may occur with Dean, and certifies someone else, voters’ support for the first candidate may not be transferred to the second. “When you buy a house, the stove and refrigerator convey,” said Cook. “Voters don’t convey.”