Kerry Loosens Dean’s Grip on Washington State

They will tell you they’re still here, still standing strong and fighting for their man, Howard Dean. They’ll drive two hours in rain and stand three hours in line to get a glimpse of the good doctor, just as Desire Dodson did this week.

Dodson, 43, of Westport, Wash., is an unabashed Deaniac. “I wanted to feel his energy,” said Dodson, who joined 700 others at a rally in Tacoma on Tuesday night, where Dean worked hard to rev up the troops.

But just below the surface of the fervor, below the sloganeering, there was a sense of foreboding, even among hard-core supporters, that Saturday’s Democratic caucuses here, with 76 delegates at stake, could signal the end of Dean’s campaign.

Deaniacs expressed the idea through a number of cliches:

“It’s do or die.” “A must-win.” “It’s make or break.”

Paul Berendt, chairman of the Washington state Democratic Party and a supporter of Dean, put it this way: “If he doesn’t win in Washington, it’s hard to see him winning in any other state.”

Washington, with its liberal politics, antiwar fervor and plugged-in community, has long been considered Dean country, even by his rivals. If there was any place in the country where the former Vermont governor could count on winning a contest in his quest for the Democratic presidential nomination, it was supposed to be here.

The state, after all, has long shown a knack for favoring “maverick” politicians, which seems to play in Dean’s favor.

But with Democratic front-runner John F. Kerry making a strong push here over the last three weeks, it’s no longer clear whose turf it is.

State party spokeswoman Kristin Brost said the consensus was that it’s a two-man contest here, pitting Dean’s long-standing organization against Kerry’s newfound momentum.

A Kerry win here, and in Michigan, which is also holding its caucuses Saturday, would cement his front-runner status for the Democratic nomination. The states together have 204 national convention delegates.

Dean supporters hope a win here will mark the turning point in his campaign and give him a boost as he heads to Wisconsin, which holds its primary Feb. 17.

But Dean -- winless in nine state primaries and caucuses -- enters the weekend staggering financially and struggling politically to show that he’s not finished as a candidate.

“He’s got to start winning primaries somewhere -- it might as well be here,” said Berendt, who along with most of the state party hierarchy has endorsed Dean.

Berendt, who believes Dean will win the state, said Washington voters didn’t care about what happens in other states and probably wouldn’t let Kerry’s recent victories be a factor.

“The people in Washington love the outsider,” he said.

Dean’s fiery opposition to the war in Iraq and his innovative online campaign strategy drew significant support from the liberal Seattle area, home of Microsoft Corp. and other high-tech giants. The state party was the first in the country to oppose the president’s preemptive war policies, and Rep. Jim McDermott of Seattle, an early Dean supporter, went to Baghdad to highlight the issue.

Dean’s appearances in Seattle last year attracted thousands -- highlighted by a crowd of more than 10,000, his biggest crowd anywhere, in August -- and created a sense that he had a lock on the state.

Dean has collected more money in Washington than any of his rivals -- nearly $680,000, compared with $176,000 for North Carolina Sen. John Edwards and $152,000 for Kerry, according to the Center for Public Integrity, a campaign watchdog group.

But Kerry’s momentum in winning seven of nine states has carried into Washington like a small tidal wave, energizing campaign workers and drawing late support from key players.

Besides winning endorsements from veterans groups and the state firefighters union, the Massachusetts senator also won the backing of Gov. Gary Locke, Sen. Maria Cantwell and five other Democrats in the congressional delegation.

He also received the endorsement of the League of Conservation Voters, an influential environmental group.

Kerry’s state campaign staff has outgrown Dean’s. After the Iowa caucuses, 14 staffers joined six others, totaling 20 paid employees for the Kerry campaign in Washington, according to Ali Wade, Kerry’s state director. Dean has 12 paid staffers in the state.

Wade said the race appears to be neck and neck between Dean and Kerry, but if anyone has the edge it’s still Dean.

“This is his strongest state.... We’re running as the underdogs here,” Wade said.

In a marked difference from his appearances here last year, in which he focused on the war, Dean has emphasized domestic issues -- the economy, health care, education -- sensing that the nation’s attention has drifted in that direction.

Washington, through most of last year, had one of the highest unemployment rates in the nation, largely because of the lingering effects of the dot-com bust and cutbacks at Boeing, one of the region’s largest employers. With airlines still skittish about buying too many new planes, the aerospace giant has eliminated nearly 42,000 jobs since September 2001, most of them in Washington.

“The economy is definitely a big issue,” said Mike Kato, 51, a facilities manager at Boeing and a Dean campaign volunteer. He has seen countless workers laid off. He has also watched as Washington legislators struggled to close big gaps in the state budget, largely created by a drop-off in tax revenues spurred by the post-Sept. 11 recession. Kato said he was first drawn to Dean by his stand against the war, but his main concern now is the federal deficit. “I don’t want my kids to have to pay for it,” he said, explaining that Dean’s plan to repeal “every dime” of President Bush’s tax cuts appealed to him.

Kato said Dean faces an uphill battle in the campaign but that he would stick with him as long as Dean stayed in the race.

Others have not been as loyal. Though Dean organizers say they haven’t lost supporters, Kerry representatives say there has been a steady trickle of former Deaniacs who have crossed over to the Kerry camp.

Gary Milligan, 47, a precinct committee officer on Seattle’s Capitol Hill, switched candidates more than three weeks ago. Milligan said he was initially drawn to Dean because of the candidate’s energy and outspokenness but gradually became wary of the “hyper-kinetic” nature of Dean’s campaign, including its aggressive online fundraising.

Milligan said he liked what he saw in Kerry on television, after Kerry won the Iowa and New Hampshire contests: “He became more relaxed, he spoke better, he seemed more presidential.” Milligan also liked the fact that Kerry was a veteran.

State party chairman Berendt said Washington has a long history of supporting maverick, even radical, politicians, dating back at least a century.

The state also seems to have a knack for choosing candidates that don’t ultimately win the presidency.

In the 1992 presidential caucuses, Washington Democrats chose the late Sen. Paul E. Tsongas, who dropped out of the race less than two weeks later. In 1988, the Rev. Jesse Jackson finished a close second, and in 1984, state Democrats chose Colorado Sen. Gary Hart.

Associated Press was used in compiling this report.

* (BEGIN TEXT OF INFOBOX) Evergreen State profile

Washington state offers the Democratic presidential hopefuls one of the largest blocs of pledged delegates at stake in the West--76. Although Howard Dean’s antiwar message and online strategy resonated with party leaders and the tech community in the liberal Seattle area during most of last year, his recent stumbles in the presidential contests leave the outcome of Saturday’s caucus uncertain.

Snapshot

Population

Statewide 5.9 million Urban residents 82% Residents 65 and older 11.2% Median household income $45,776 Families below poverty line 7.3% Families with preschool children below poverty line 14.9%

Ethnicity White 78.9% Asian 5.5% Latino 7.5% Black 3.2% Native American 1.6% Other* 3.3% *Some respondents list multiple races or races not listed here.

Occupation Management/ professional 35.6% Sales/office 25.9 Service 14.9 Production/ transportation of goods 12.7 Construction 9.4 Farming, fish-ing and forestry 1.6

Politics State does not register by party. 71% of voting-age residents registered to vote in 2000.

Top exports Airplanes, airplane parts, soybeans, wheat, lumber, corn

Source: U.S. Census Bureau - Researched by Susannah Rosenblatt