Longer Race May Help Kerry

Karen Prager could easily accept either John F. Kerry or John Edwards as the Democratic presidential nominee. But she’s considering voting for Edwards in today’s Wisconsin primary, just to prolong the Democratic race.

“I think we should keep this going for as long as we possibly can,” she said after attending an Edwards rally here last weekend. “The Republicans can’t get their voices heard now in the way that they want. Plus, it’s good for Democrats [in other states] to have a choice.”

Few voters may be as explicitly strategic in their choices as Prager. But she reflects a debate among Democratic leaders about whether the party would be better served by ending or extending a nominating contest in which Kerry has established an enormous advantage.

The issue is likely to come to a head if Kerry wins in Wisconsin today as decisively as the polls suggest he will. That could leave Howard Dean and Edwards, who have invested more time in the state than Kerry has, struggling to maintain credibility for their campaigns.

Yet Edwards, in particular, has faced fewer calls than expected to withdraw if he loses today. The absence of pressure reflects a subtle shift in Democratic thinking.

Originally, party leaders encouraged states to “front-load” their contests -- hold them early in the year -- to settle the nomination quickly. And some party strategists still believe it would be better if the race in effect ends in Wisconsin, because that would allow Kerry to shift toward organizing against President Bush -- who’s sitting on the largest campaign war chest ever.

“I really think the Kerry campaign would be better served if they could concentrate on raising the money to make certain Bush’s financial advantage doesn’t turn into a huge advertising advantage in the short run,” said veteran Democratic strategist Bill Carrick.

But a growing number of key Democrats believe the party -- and Kerry -- would gain more if Edwards, and maybe Dean, stayed in the race at least through March 2, when 10 states hold primaries or caucuses.

The reason: The continued competition would be likely to energize Democrats in California, New York, Ohio and other states with contests that day. Also, the race would allow the Democrats to maintain the media focus that has helped catapult Kerry past Bush in polls that measure sentiment for the general election.

“Democrats are ready to unify, but as long as these candidates are talking about Bush and the failures of the Bush presidency, all this free publicity we’re getting has been spectacular,” said Democratic National Committee Chairman Terry McAuliffe.

If Kerry wins Wisconsin, the perception will grow that the Massachusetts senator has essentially clinched the nomination. A win here would give him victories in 15 of the 17 Democratic contests so far.

For many Democrats, the question of whether it makes sense to prolong the race in those circumstances turns on whether Kerry’s rivals focus most of their fire on Bush or on him. “Extending the race is a good thing if what happens next is what happened here in Wisconsin, when the candidates have been talking about their vision,” said Wisconsin Gov. James Doyle, a Democrat. “But if people are just hanging on trying to tear down Sen. Kerry, that’s a problem.”

The last few weeks have shown that the primaries provide the party out of power an unparalleled platform from which to make its case against the incumbent administration. That opportunity was spotlighted Sunday when the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel summarized a Saturday night Democratic event with a banner front-page headline: “Kerry, Edwards go after Bush.”

It was as if Edwards, who has frequently been mentioned as a possible vice presidential nominee, were already running as part of a team with Kerry. Advocates of extending the race argue the party would benefit from similar media attention as the candidates campaign in the March 2 states -- and conceivably beyond into Florida, Texas and Illinois, which vote later in the month.

But some skeptical Democrats caution that media attention could dwindle if Kerry wins decisively in Wisconsin. And others, like Doyle, worry about the possible attacks on Kerry that Republicans can adopt if he wins the nomination.

That danger was demonstrated last week when the Bush campaign released an Internet ad recycling Dean’s charge that Kerry had relied too heavily on special interests to fund his political career.

“What would not make this a good effort is if all the candidates turned on each other and made this very ugly and nasty, as Bill Clinton had to go through with Jerry Brown and Paul Tsongas” in the 1992 Democratic race, McAuliffe said.

That sentiment may explain why Dean -- who has criticized Kerry more sharply than Edwards has -- has faced more calls to withdraw if he loses Wisconsin.

Yet the support for letting the race continue only if it doesn’t bruise Kerry has presented Edwards with a Catch-22: In effect, party leaders have signaled they would not begrudge the North Carolina senator remaining in the contest only so long as he doesn’t try too aggressively to win it by drawing sharper distinctions with Kerry.

At a debate Sunday in Milwaukee, Edwards jabbed at Kerry more forcefully than in recent weeks over trade, healthcare and even the front-runner’s speaking style. Yet Edwards did not approach the level of antagonism that Dean has directed at Kerry. Most insiders say they believe Edwards will remain largely civil toward Kerry, partly because he has pledged to run a positive campaign and partly because he might have an eye on either the vice presidency in 2004 or a presidential bid in 2008, should Bush win reelection.

Though opinion in the Kerry camp is divided, some senior advisors say they would like Edwards and Dean to prolong the race. Their reasoning is that this would give Kerry more exposure and the chance to present himself to the country as a winner.

When the last major candidates go home, so will the cameras broadcasting the pictures of Kerry standing on a platform of adoring supporters, declaring another victory.

Rather than be weakened by the competition for the nomination, Kerry has significantly improved his position against Bush in polls over the last month. Indeed, Kerry’s gains in public perception rank among the largest any candidate has experienced during the primary process, said Northeastern University political scientist William Mayer, who has written several books on the nominating system.

National polls in early January, before Kerry won the Iowa caucuses, showed him trailing Bush by as many as 17 percentage points. Half or fewer of Americans said they knew Kerry well enough to express an opinion about him, and those who did were split about evenly between positive and negative impressions.

Recent polls, by contrast, have shown Kerry running even with Bush or leading him -- by as much as 9 percentage points last week in an ABC/Washington Post survey. In a CNN/Time poll this month, at least half of Americans described Kerry as strong, decisive, honest, trustworthy and empathetic.

All sides agree that those judgments are subject to reconsideration when the Bush campaign begins in earnest. But the surveys underscore the opportunity the nomination contest has given Kerry to introduce himself to voters largely on his own terms -- and why many Democrats hope it continues, even if it amounts to little more than a victory lap for the leader.

“The Republicans are really kind of back on their heels,” said Doyle. “Sen. Kerry’s story is getting real, full, national exposure.”