Jobs Data Show a Gain in ’03
Ventura County’s unemployment rate dipped to 5.3% last month, down from 5.7% during the same period a year ago, as 1,200 more jobs were added to the payrolls.
But that wasn’t even the good news. Newly revised statistics released Friday by the California Employment Development Department show that rather than losing a record 5,800 nonfarm jobs last year, the county gained 7,400 industrial jobs.
Earlier estimates were based on a handful of employer surveys, but the new data are derived from payroll tax filings and therefore more accurate. The new figures show that the pace of growth for California, which recorded a 6.1% jobless rate in January, is consistent with the increases seen nationwide. The U.S. rate was 5.6%.
“Everything I said about Ventura [County] unemployment last year -- never mind,” said economist Mark Schniepp, executive director of the California Economic Forecast. “It’s not as bleak as it seems.”
Before this latest revision, state statistics showed an unbroken 15-month streak of year-over-year job losses, from October 2002 through December 2003. Now, it would appear that Ventura County saw hiring increases each month of 2003, with the exception of November and December, when nonfarm jobs dropped by 800 and 1,800 positions, respectively.
“With the revisions, we start at ground zero again,” Schniepp said. “But this is the first positive month after two negative months in a row.”
In January, Ventura County had 298,500 total jobs, according to the employer sampling. That was an increase of 1,200 jobs compared with January 2003. Of that number, one-third of the gains were in farm jobs.
An increase of “800 nonfarm jobs is not much to be excited about,” Schniepp said, “but at least we’re creating jobs.”
Last month, major gains came in construction, which added 1,700 jobs; private education and health services, up 1,300 positions; and trade, transportation and utilities, up 800.
Among the employment categories taking the biggest hits were government payrolls, which slipped by 2,500 jobs; information technology, off by 700; and manufacturing, down 400 jobs over the same period last year.
At a presentation of the UC Santa Barbara Economic Forecast on Feb. 19, economists predicted modest job growth of about 0.4% this year for Ventura County.
The revised state data, while positive, raise more uncertainty, said Dan Hamilton, director of economics for the Economic Forecast. Until this data came out, it was thought the county’s jobs picture was basically unchanged in 2002 and down last year.
“I don’t know if I’m more optimistic. It could mean a cyclical correction either hit us earlier or it’s yet to happen,” he said. “It makes my job harder, no question.”
Hamilton said it would take another few months of improved jobs statistics before he would be willing to raise the target for annual job growth.
“As a long-term thing, we have been, and we remain, very bullish about Ventura County’s economy,” he said, “with the caveat that we could have some cyclical” effect on jobs in 2004.
