Do-or-Die Day for Edwards?

With four days to the next round of Democratic primaries and caucuses on Super Tuesday, John Edwards scheduled a relatively light campaign day in the snowy Midwest Friday, making a single appearance at a 67-year-old gym at Hamline University here.

Edwards, finishing a 2 1/2-day California tour, canceled a morning event in East Los Angeles, citing logistical and time issues. But it’s clear the North Carolina senator wants to spend his dwindling campaign time in Minnesota, Ohio and Georgia, where he thinks he stands a better chance of lighting voters’ passions.

The North Carolina senator, who is trying to derail front-runner John F. Kerry, faces an uphill battle Tuesday when 10 states hold contests.

Polls show Edwards has little chance of winning the two states with the most delegates -- California and New York. But his campaign is hoping for wins in Georgia, Ohio and Minnesota.

Edwards hinted Friday that he planned to continue his campaign beyond Tuesday, regardless of the outcome.

He has pursued a strategy that is reminiscent of the old Avis car rental ads -- “We’re No. 2, We Try Harder.” But mathematically, he cannot win the nomination unless he starts winning some states, which he acknowledged during a brief news conference Friday.

“That’s true -- at some point the math tells us that, doesn’t it?” Edwards said. He declined to say when he thought the tide would have to start turning.

“I don’t think it’s Tuesday. I think it’s a longer process than that.”

His performance in Thursday’s Los Angeles Times/CNN debate at USC did not seem likely to spark the kind of last-minute surge that led to second-place finishes behind Kerry in Iowa and Wisconsin.

And though he hopes to continue winning delegates Tuesday even if he doesn’t win states -- under the Democratic primary system, delegates are awarded based on the percentage of votes won -- most analysts say his campaign will lose credibility if he fails to score any victories

Kerry has won in all but two of the 20 Democratic contests.

Alan Abramowitz, an analyst at Atlanta’s Emory University, said Super Tuesday could mark the end of Edwards’ campaign.

“I think it’s going to look pretty bleak” if Edwards does not win at least two states, Abramowitz said.

Edwards has based part of his hopes on winning the support of backers of Howard Dean, who exited the race last week. Edwards received good news on that front Friday when the Minnesota for Dean organization threw its support behind him.

Edwards continued trolling for the former Vermont governor’s endorsement.

“What he recognized, that all of us in our campaign also recognized, is if we want to bring real change to America, real change to our government in Washington, D.C., that change must come from ... out here on the ground, out in the real world,” he said.

Edwards has been pressing the case that, as a one-term senator, he is more of a “Washington outsider” than Kerry, who has served in the Senate since 1985.