Missouri Now the Showdown State

The Democrats scrambling for votes in Missouri’s wide-open presidential primary will find an electorate worried about the same issues that resonate across the nation: jobs, healthcare, the war in Iraq and above all, beating President Bush in November.

But they’ll also find some quirks to Democratic Party politics in the Show Me State.

Most campaigning is done in the state’s two big urban centers, Kansas City and St. Louis. Voters there closely resemble the traditional Democratic Party base. They tend to support abortion rights and favor gun control. They’re more liberal (or, as some analysts put it, more Yankee). They include unionized workers and a strong African American contingent.

These two population hubs are where Massachusetts Sen. John F. Kerry -- who leads in recent polls -- can expect to do best, pundits say.

Outside the big cities, the political climate shifts. This is what locals call “outstate” Missouri: a landscape of cattle pastures, soy fields, wineries and one-block towns. In many of these rural counties -- some known as “Little Dixie” -- Democratic Party roots stretch back to the Civil War. Voters are much more conservative than any the presidential contenders have encountered so far.

“The first thing anyone running for office there is asked is, ‘What’s your position on the 2nd Amendment?’ The second thing they’re asked is about abortion,” said Rick Hardy, a professor of political science at the University of Missouri-Columbia.

Voters expect the answers to be: I’ll leave your guns alone. And I’ll fight to restrict abortion rights.

They won’t find a Democratic contender in this year’s primary to line up with them on abortion. But analysts say outstate voters might be drawn to the Southern roots and small-town background of North Carolina Sen. John Edwards. The family tradition of military service in parts of rural Missouri might boost retired Gen. Wesley K. Clark, from neighboring Arkansas.

Analysts traditionally put considerable stock in Missouri’s urban-rural split as they try to handicap political races. This year, however, there’s a wild card: All the candidates are largely unknown here.

Until last week, the Democratic hopefuls had written off Missouri, sure that voters would back Rep. Dick Gephardt, who has represented St. Louis in Congress since 1977.

A few candidates, notably Clark and former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean, had volunteers on the ground in Missouri trying to whip up grass-roots support on the cheap. But there were no television or radio ads and few mailings. Even yard signs and bumper stickers were scarce.

When Gephardt came in fourth in the Jan. 19 Iowa caucuses and pulled out of the race -- saying he did not intend to endorse anyone soon -- Missouri was up for grabs.

And voters found themselves with an election coming up.

The turnabout seems to have benefited Kerry, who was grabbing headlines for his victories in Iowa and New Hampshire when Missouri voters began to pay attention to the race.

A Zogby poll conducted for Reuters-MSNBC this week found 45% of Missouri voters backing Kerry. Edwards drew 11%, and Dean was running third with 9%.

“We had no information about any of these guys except for what was on the national news,” said Dave Robertson, a political science professor at the University of Missouri-St. Louis. “When you see [TV clips of] some guy waving his arms in victory in Iowa and New Hampshire, and there’s a sign in front of him that says ‘Kerry’ ... that alone gave him a boost and defined him for a lot of people who had not paid much attention to the candidates before.”

“A lot of us are having to make our decision awfully quickly,” said Loraine Miller, 58, an administrator in the St. Louis suburb of Manchester. She said she was leaning toward Kerry, or maybe Edwards, but didn’t know much about either candidate. “We hadn’t even given a thought to our second choice” after Gephardt, she said.

In such a quick campaign, image seems to matter more than policy positions. Several Kerry backers, for instance, said they were drawn to him more for his resume than any specific stance on an issue.

“I’m supporting him because I’m willing to go for experience over flash,” said Sara Jo Shettles, 61, who lives outside Kansas City.

“I like his war service,” said Larry Hunt, 51, a high school teacher in Linn, in central Missouri. “And at heart, he seems interested in helping the poor.”

Kerry, Edwards, Dean and the Rev. Al Sharpton campaigned here this week. But none of the candidates will have much time to devote to Missouri. Tuesday’s primary coincides with votes in South Carolina, Arizona, New Mexico, Delaware, Oklahoma and North Dakota.

Until Gephardt dropped out, South Carolina was considered the top prize among these “mini-Super Tuesday” states. Most candidates are still spending much of their time there.

But Missouri offers Tuesday’s biggest trove of delegates to the Democratic National Convention; 74 will be divided proportionally among the top vote-getters. (It takes 2,161 delegates to win the nomination.)

Missouri is also a key swing state for the general election, so candidates are eager to establish their appeal early. The state’s jobless rate of 5% is below the national average, but the economy remains a major issue here -- and one the Democrats hope to use against Bush.

St. Louis, in particular, has been hit hard by the slump in air travel and aircraft manufacturing. And this week, Ford Motor Co. announced plans to lay off 1,000 workers at an assembly plant in the suburb of Hazelwood. The rural economy is struggling too, as more independent family farmers sell out to the meatpacking conglomerates. And factories are closing in small towns across the state, just as they are across the nation.

“Missouri is probably the most representative state in the union,” said Ken Warren, a political science professor at St. Louis University.

Kerry, although he’s riding high in the polls, can’t take the state for granted.

Bryce Oates, 26, a family farmer in central Missouri, said he planned to vote for Dean because he liked his agricultural policies. Steve Stepp, 56, a businessman in southwest Missouri, is standing by Clark on the theory that Bush “is no match for a four-star general.”

Missouri’s regional divide might still pay dividends for Edwards. Though his rivals devoted their sparse campaign time to the big cities, Edwards made his first stop a rousing rally in rural southwest Missouri, near Springfield.

“The more I hear him speak, the more I’m impressed,” said Sue Cowen, 55, who drove an hour from her home in Joplin to the rally.

“I didn’t like the mudslinging that happened in Iowa. Edwards seems like more of a gentleman. And he seems to be more for the middle class. Kerry scares me a bit. It’s that old Easterner thing. He seems a little more liberal, a little more upper crust,” Cowen said.

There’s also a block of undecided voters still mourning the loss of their hometown favorite.

“I was hoping we could get [a candidate] from the Midwest who could bolster jobs here,” said Jerry Caldwell, 63, who lives in Kirksville, in north-central Missouri. With Gephardt out, he said, “I’m like a lot of people here. I’m pretty much in limbo.”

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Missouri profile

Missouri offers the biggest prize of all the state elections up for grabs Tuesday, with 74 pledged delegates to be won. The race in that state is wide open now because native son Rep. Dick Gephardt quit after a fourth-place finish in the Iowa caucuses Jan. 19. The remaining Democratic candidates are vying for Gephardt’s supporters.

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Population snapshot

Population

Missouri: 5.6 million

Urban residents: 69.4%

Residents 65 and over: 14%

Median household income: $37,934

Families below poverty line: 8.6%

Families with preschool children below poverty line: 16.5%

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Ethnicity

White: 85%

Black: 11%

Latino: 2%

Asian: 1%

Other: 1%

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Politics

Registered voters: 3,681,844

Registered voting-age population: 88.3%

(State does not register by party)

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Occupation

Management/ professional: 31.5%

Sales/office: 26.9%

Production/transportation of goods: 16.3%

Service: 16.0%

Construction: 9.8%

Farming, fishing and forestry: 0.6%

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Top state exports

Passenger and commercial vehicles, herbicides, circuits, engines, medications, horse and cow leather

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Presidential primary history

Percentage of primary votes

1988

Democrats

Dick Gephardt: 57.8%

Jesse Jackson: 20.2%

Michael S. Dukakis: 11.7%

Paul Simon: 4.1%

Gary Hart: 3.9%

Unpledged: 1.3%

Republicans

George H.W.Bush: 42.2%

Bob Dole: 41.1%

Pat Robertson: 11.2%

Jack Kemp: 3.5%

Unpledged: 1.4%

2000

Democrats

Al Gore: 64.6%

Bill Bradley: 33.6%

Lyndon H. LaRouche Jr.: 0.3%

Pat D. Price: 0.2%

Unpledged: 1.3%

Republicans

George W. Bush: 57.9%

John McCain: 35.3%

Alan Keyes: 5.7%

Steve Forbes: 0.4%

Gary Bauer: 0.2%

Orrin G. Hatch: 0.1%

Lawrence L. Hornung: 0.02%

Unpledged: 0.3%

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Percentages of votes were rounded off to the nearest tenth

Sources: U.S. census and Almanac of American Politics, www.fec.gov, Congressional Quarterly