Boxer Continues to Outpace Rival Jones in Fundraising

Democratic incumbent Barbara Boxer widened her financial advantage over Republican rival Bill Jones during the U.S. Senate campaign’s second financial quarter, pushing her available cash to $7.1 million on the strength of $2.9 million in fresh contributions.

Boxer raised $900,000 more than Jones in the three months ending June 30, and her reserves dwarf Jones’ $956,000. His total does not reflect $622,000 in debt, including a fresh $100,000 personal loan from his own funds.

Jones’ announcement that he intends to kick in at least $2 million of his own money to unseat Boxer, a two-term incumbent, has turned out to be less than advertised. On Wednesday, Jones strategist Sean Walsh said the pledge would be new money. On Thursday, Walsh said it includes the $350,000 that Jones had already lent himself.

Walsh said one conundrum Jones faces is that if he puts in much more than $2 million, he could trigger the “millionaire provision” of the McCain-Feingold campaign finance law, which, using a complicated formula, would raise the maximum amount that donors can give to Boxer.

But Rose Kapolczynski, Boxer’s campaign manager, said the provision takes into account Boxer’s fundraising successes and would not kick in until Jones had spent $6.7 million of his own money. Boxer then would be able to collect as much as $6,000 from contributors now limited to $2,000. And the cap would increase as Jones’ spending went up.

Jones has declined to publicly set a fundraising goal, but has said he will raise and spend whatever it takes to run a competitive race -- at least $15 million, according to analysts. Boxer has already raised nearly that much -- $14.1 million -- and hopes to raise and spend $25 million.

“This is the most she’s ever raised by this point in the campaign, and it’s very much meeting our goals,” said Boxer spokesman Roy Behr.

But some analysts said Boxer’s fundraising pace was slower than they expected, perhaps a function of Boxer’s double-digit lead in the polls and rank-and-file Democrats’ concentration on the presidential campaign.

“They are totally focused on getting rid of George W. Bush,” said analyst Sherry Bebitch Jeffe. “All things being equal, they’ll give more easily and more happily to the Kerry campaign than to any other. The Kerry campaign is sucking some of the oxygen out of the air for other campaigns.”

Despite that, she said, Boxer’s fundraising appears to be chugging along.

“She seems to be in decent shape,” Jeffe said. “It’s a healthy amount of money.”

One of Jones’ problems is the race is not in the top tier of those attracting national donors, said Jennifer Duffy, who tracks Senate races for the independent Cook Political Report.

In South Dakota’s tossup Senate race, she said Republican challenger John Thune raised $3.8 million in the second quarter -- nearly twice Jones’ total -- and incumbent Democratic Sen. Tom Daschle, the Senate minority leader, has spent $8.5 million, well over $1 million more than Boxer. That in a state with fewer residents than Jones’ Fresno County, and a state where it is cheaper to campaign.

The longer Jones trails in the polls, the harder it will be for him to draw some of that national money to his own effort, analysts said. Still, they said, he shouldn’t be counted out as long as he’s raising money -- and willing to spend his own.

“You never say never, but it’s going to be tough,” Duffy said.

Jones’ nearly $2 million in second-quarter contributions was “respectable in light of the obstacles he faces,” said Claremont McKenna College analyst Jack Pitney, a former GOP official. Jones’ pledge to spend more of his own money also “sends a signal that he’s darned serious about the race,” Pitney said.

But, he said, it will take more than a personal check to draw national donors. “He will also need some polling that will show he’s within striking distance,” Pitney said.

Hanging in the balance is a decision by the National Republican Senatorial Committee whether to kick as much as $3.4 million into the Jones campaign. The committee said earlier this month that it had identified 11 races that it believed were more winnable than the California contest. The committee uses in-state fundraising as a barometer of political health.

“I don’t think he’s looking like a good investment” for Republicans nationally or locally, Jeffe said. “My guess is that California Republican donors concerned about control of the Senate will kick in elsewhere.”

According to the finance reports, which were due Thursday, Boxer has raised $14.1 million and spent $7 million, much of it on staff and fundraising efforts, and has $68,000 in debts. Jones has raised $3.8 million and spent $2.8 million.

The Boxer campaign is relying on an extensive grass-roots network and claims 72,000 individual donors.

“There’s more overhead involved in that, with direct mail and phone banks,” Behr said.

Jones has hoped that Boxer’s role as a liberal lightning rod to conservatives would draw out-of-state donations. He will begin a direct mail campaign to try to capitalize on that, Walsh said.

But Boxer has been using Jones’ conservative connections as her own rallying point for liberals.

Vice President Dick Cheney is headlining a fundraiser for Jones later this month in Riverside. On Thursday, Boxer e-mailed supporters, telling them of the event -- and asking for fresh contributions to offset the $200,000 she said Jones expects to raise.