Dismissals by Israeli Leader Pose a Gamble

Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon’s firing Friday of two right-wing ministers opposed to his plans to pull out of the Gaza Strip was likely to ensure a Cabinet majority for the proposal but sparked speculation that it might bring about the collapse of his government.

Sharon sent dismissal letters by courier to Transportation Minister Avigdor Lieberman and Tourism Minister Benny Elon, members of the hard-line National Union Party.

The prime minister intends to seek Cabinet approval Sunday for his proposal to withdraw from 21 Jewish settlements in the Gaza Strip and four others in the northern West Bank.

Sharon was one vote shy of a majority for his plan in the 23-member Cabinet. With two opponents gone, he is left with an 11-to-10 advantage.

Under Israeli law, Sharon had to act at least 48 hours before the Cabinet meeting.

Elon went into hiding Friday, saying he was trying to dodge receipt of the dismissal note in hopes of rendering the firing invalid and foiling Sharon’s plan to hold a vote. It was unclear if the Cabinet session would be delayed because Elon had successfully avoided receiving the note in person.

The firing came after marathon negotiations that failed to win over rebellious ministers in Sharon’s Likud Party.

Among the key questions was whether holdout Likud ministers would end up joining Sharon. That would have rendered the firing unnecessary and staved off the possibilities of a governmental crisis and a damaging split inside Israel’s dominant party.

Some analysts regard the firing, which can be undone before Sunday’s session, as an instance of brinkmanship by Sharon.

“There is the potential for an important turning point, but we’ll see,” said Dan Meridor, a former Likud Cabinet minister. Sharon “seems determined now. If he stays determined, it’s a major leadership step.”

The direction of a second rightist party in the governing coalition, the National Religious Party, remained in question Friday. If the party quits in protest of the withdrawal, as its leader, Housing Minister Effi Eitam, has urged, Sharon would lose his ruling majority in the parliament, or Knesset. That could prompt him to find a new partner, such as the left-leaning Labor Party, which favors the Gaza pullout, or send Israel to fresh elections.

Some analysts say one possibility is that Sharon would run at the top of a moderate bloc created from elements of Likud, Labor and the centrist Shinui Party, which is already part of the government.

“He’s a maverick. He plays his own game. He’s a tactician,” said Yoram Peri, director of the Chaim Herzog Institute for Media, Politics and Society at Tel Aviv University. “If tactics call for breaking the party, he will break the party.”

To many observers, the political maneuverings Friday marked the latest sign of a transformation in Sharon’s political views. Once the leading force behind building settlements in the West Bank and Gaza Strip, Sharon has called for abandoning some of those communities, arguing that Israel should focus instead on making sure it retains the largest blocs outside Jerusalem and Tel Aviv.

Sharon argues that Israel is not likely to remain in the Gaza Strip after any peace agreement with the Palestinians and says exiting now will spare the army from having to defend the 7,500 Israelis who live there among 1.3 million Palestinians.

Sharon softened his original plan, which called for evacuating the settlements at once, after Likud members defeated it in a May 2 referendum. The plan now calls for a four-step evacuation. The Bush administration has endorsed the plan, characterizing it as the best available chance to restart the peace process.

Abraham Diskin, a political science professor at Hebrew University in Jerusalem, said Sharon could survive even with a Knesset minority, perhaps until his term ends in 2007. Lacking majority support in the parliament would make it harder to pass legislation and budgets, but Likud would remain intact, albeit with cracks.

Analysts agreed that the cost of a Likud split would probably deter Sharon’s rivals, including Finance Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, from going too far.

Recent polls show solid support for Sharon and his withdrawal plan, which would be completed by the end of 2005.

For some members of Likud, with its long-standing support for settlements, withdrawal represents a moment of anguish. But it was a Likud leader, Prime Minister Menachem Begin, who agreed to uproot settlements in the Sinai to make peace with Egypt in the 1970s. And it later fell to Sharon, as defense minister, to remove those settlers.

“This is a very difficult move for the Likud ... a test of the Likud’s ideology and ability to preserve it in the face of changing reality, both international as well as domestic public opinion,” Michael Eitan, a Likud member of Knesset, told Israel Radio.

“Most Likud prime ministers of the last few decades faced a similar need to reconcile ideology with reality,” Eitan said, “and Sharon is no exception.”