Another Test for Israel’s ‘Mr. Comeback’

Ariel Sharon’s trademark characteristics include his bulky build, a trumpeting voice -- and an extraordinary political resilience.

The Israeli prime minister’s storied ability to bounce back from adversity will be put to a crucial test today as members of his conservative Likud Party hold a referendum on his proposal to withdraw from the Gaza Strip. Polls have suggested that they probably will reject Sharon’s plan.

Sharon envisions his initiative as an ambitious first step toward drawing the borders of Israel and those of a future Palestinian state. Although he is ready to relinquish Gaza, he has announced his intention to retain several large Jewish settlement blocs in the West Bank.

Under the pullout plan, which won the blessing of President Bush last month, Jewish settlers would leave their homes in Gaza in mid-2005. If the withdrawal takes place, it would be only the second time in Israel’s history that the nation voluntarily gave up lands seized in the 1967 Middle East War -- the first being Israel’s withdrawal from settlements in Egypt’s Sinai penin- sula.

Over the last several days, half a dozen polls have forecast a rebuff of the plan by margins of as much as 8 percentage points. Defeat would not only throw into doubt Sharon’s ability to proceed with a Gaza pullout, but also might ultimately cause the prime minister to lose his grip on power.

Sharon, who had initially pledged to abide by the referendum result, has said in recent days that he does not consider it legally binding. But a “no” vote would sharply restrict his maneuvering room if he brings the plan as promised before his divided Cabinet and the often-contentious Knesset, or parliament.

Polls have consistently suggested that a majority of Israelis are ready to get out of Gaza. Many regard the territory as a quagmire that exacts a too-heavy toll on Israeli troops who guard the settlements that are home to the estimated 7,500 Jews who live among more than 1.2 million Palestinians.

Those eligible to cast ballots in today’s referendum are 193,000 registered members of the Likud Party, which for decades has opposed relinquishing any Jewish settlements.

Until the middle of last week, it appeared that Sharon and his camp held the lead, albeit a slim one. But an intensive lobbying campaign waged by the Yesha Council, the settlers’ umbrella group, appeared to have brought about an eleventh-hour reversal.

The settlers and their supporters canvassed Likud members door-to-door, often bringing along their small children to help plead their cause. They left leaflets on cars at major intersections in nearly every Israeli city and staged an advertising blitz.

Sharon, by contrast, largely contented himself with giving interviews to promote the plan and telephoning key Likudniks to seek support. A few top aides including his deputy, Ehud Olmert, barnstormed the country, but several influential party leaders, most notably Benjamin Netanyahu, stayed on the sidelines.

Political observers read Netanyahu’s pointed nonparticipation as a signal that he intends to challenge Sharon for the Likud leadership if the vote goes against the prime minister. Sharon and Netanyahu, the country’s two most prominent conservative politicians, are longtime rivals.

Seeing his numbers slipping, Sharon made an urgent round of final appeals for support.

“I have not surrendered,” he said in a TV interview aired Friday. “I have always continued to stand fast even at times when others have lost hope.”

Sharon has warned that a rejection of his plan would damage relations with the U.S., quash Israel’s nascent economic recovery and please Palestinian Authority President Yasser Arafat, whom most Israelis despise.

Heading into the vote, both sides are aware that the polls might not tell the full story. Several surveys placed the undecided voters at about 10% -- larger than the gap separating those for and against.

Sometimes the polls are wrong.

In one such famous instance, Shimon Peres went to sleep on election night in 1996 believing, on the basis of exit polls, that he had been elected prime minister; by morning, it was clear that Netanyahu had won.

Sharon raised the possibility of calling new elections if he were to lose. He also hinted that he might form a new alliance with the left-leaning Labor Party, which backs his plan.

Commentators noted that Sharon, whose political obituary had been written again and again, had often managed to reinvent himself after setbacks.

“The polls predict defeat,” political reporter Aluf Benn wrote in the newspaper Haaretz. “But Sharon, it must be remembered, is Mr. Comeback.”