Beijing Is Listening Closely to Chen

Chinese officials and academics stepped up their criticism of Taiwanese President Chen Shui-bian on Wednesday, accusing him of past duplicity and urging him to renounce any thought of an independent Taiwan.

It’s time for concrete action, not rhetoric, they said a day before Chen’s inaugural speech today launching his second term.

“We have no interest and don’t care about the speech given by Chen Shui-bian,” Li Yihu, international studies expert at Beijing University, said Wednesday during a news conference at the State Council here. “We will make our determination based on the policies and actions of Chen Shui-bian in the future.”

In the long-standing battle across the Taiwan Strait for influence, points and pole position, this has been a big week. Bravado aside, Beijing is listening to Chen’s every word, as are many others around the world, searching for signs of what the future may hold. In particular, many wonder whether there’s room for rapprochement between Taipei and Beijing or whether the relationship faces the prospect of further deterioration during Chen’s second term.

China views Taiwan as part of its territory, even as a growing number of Taiwanese believe that their separate identity and the island’s de facto autonomy should be acknowledged. Relations during the four years of Chen’s first term were severely strained.

Beijing this week has tried to alternately threaten and entice Taiwan back into the fold. China’s state media have mounted a full-court press over the last several days through articles, editorials, commentaries and a toughly worded statement Monday that called on Taiwan not to upset the status quo crafted over decades.

“Cross-strait relations have been pushed to the brink of danger due to the rampant ‘Taiwan independence’ activities aimed at dividing China,” the official New China News Agency said Wednesday in a commentary. Beijing also criticized Washington for sending a representative to Chen’s inauguration.

Although many in Taiwan saw the Monday statement as a wholesale attack on Chen, some saw an opening, citing Beijing’s use of language that appeared to echo that used by Chen in a Feb. 3 initiative to improve ties. In particular, they cited the ideas of creating a military-free zone along the strait and appointing a representative of each side to reopen communication.

Beijing’s statements this week offered little that was new, however, in a field rife with loaded terms, studied ambiguity and hair-thin nuance. What is significant, Beijing-based Taiwan scholars say, is China’s decision to reaffirm from the highest levels of its government at this key juncture what it sees as Taiwan’s clear choice.

On the one hand, the scholars say, Beijing’s stance suggests that Taiwan risks military conflict should it declare real or de facto independence, hold a referendum on succession or revise the constitution to suggest as much. Alternately, China lays out a vision of halcyon days -- increased cross-strait contacts, Chinese unity and the potential for more international recognition for the island -- provided Taiwan acknowledges Beijing’s primacy and accepts the so-called one-China principle aimed at eventual reunification.

The State Council news conference for foreign journalists organized by the government Wednesday suggested that China didn’t think its weeklong campaign had been as effective as hoped.

During the 90-minute session involving five Chinese experts on Taiwan, academics said their government meant to send a tough message this week, not the softer line some had read into its remarks. They defended the dearth of new substance in Beijing’s position, explaining that issues of such importance merit a clear, consistent approach.

Times staff writer Tyler Marshall in Taipei contributed to this report.