Boxer Defeats Jones in One of Her Easiest Victories

Incumbent U.S. Sen. Barbara Boxer rolled to victory Tuesday over Republican challenger Bill Jones, trouncing the former California secretary of state by a double-digit margin in a campaign that never shifted out of first gear.

Hobbled by low cash and little visibility, Jones ended the campaign much the way he began it -- in Fresno, with little fanfare, 250 miles from where most of the state’s Republican Party hierarchy watched election night returns in Newport Beach.

Boxer, though, reveled in what could be the easiest victory of her 30-year political career, delivering an all-smiles speech here in a balloon-festooned Marriott hotel ballroom at the marquee party for the state’s Democrats.

“Unlike the pundits’ predictions after the recall, California is not about running Democrats out of office,” Boxer said. “Californians are independent, and they put their faith in the candidates who represent their values and will fight for them.”

Boxer argued that her core social issues, such as protecting the environment, “cut across party lines.”

“If you want to win statewide in California, forget labels and forget personal attacks,” Boxer said.

Jones conceded the race at 8:45 p.m., less than an hour after polls closed.

“We went nose to nose with a huge Boxer staff,” he said. “We couldn’t quite close the deal.”

Boxer dominated most voter categories tracked in a Los Angeles Times exit poll, even winning nearly 1 in 5 Republican votes. Boxer was the clear favorite among independents and the favored pick among surveyed ethnic groups.

For Republicans, the campaign was an opportunity missed. Strategists for both campaigns agree that Boxer was vulnerable, with less than 50% support in early polls, a popular Republican in the governor’s office backing the challenger, and a political persona that “irritates a lot of big corporations” that would have been able to sink money into Jones’ campaign, said Rose Kapolczynski, who has directed all three of Boxer’s Senate campaigns.

“Our numbers were in the high 40s, which means by definition there’s an opportunity for a challenger,” she said. “Bill Jones, we thought, would be formidable.... He didn’t seize it.”

But there were times when both sides and political analysts thought the race could have caught fire. The first was in March, just after Jones’ primary victory, when a flash of hard-edged television ads could have grabbed voters’ attention and let Jones set the agenda for the race. The second was just after the National Republican Convention in late August as voters and pollsters began looking more closely at the race. An onslaught of TV ads could have affected September poll results, analysts said, by giving Jones’ campaign momentum.

Neither happened. Ad campaigns run on cash, and Jones had trouble finding it, raising a little more than $6 million in a race that analysts estimated would have taken at least $15 million to be competitive. Boxer raised more than $16 million and spent $7 million strictly on TV and radio ads.

By mid-September, the race was essentially over.

“I think it was probably redeemable through much of the summer, probably through Labor Day,” said Jennifer Duffy, who tracks U.S. Senate campaigns for the Cook Political Report. “The argument was there. The weakness [for Boxer] in the poll numbers was pretty evident. There’s a [Boxer] voting record with a lot to work with. But the money just wasn’t there.”

Still, Jones had some cash to work with and campaign watchers said they were mystified that Jones didn’t use it on the air.

“He raised $6 million -- he could have at least put some ads on for the last 10 days,” said Allan Hoffenblum, a GOP consultant, adding that state Republicans were disappointed with Jones’ weak challenge after winning a contested Republican primary in March. “People are miffed not that he lost ... but that he didn’t seem to make the effort.”

Jones did spend money, though, including at least $550,000 on direct mail and nearly $400,000 on salaries and consulting fees during the three months that ended Sept. 30.

Jones entered the race late and, with an endorsement from Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, easily won the March primary. But Hoffenblum said the party did not rally behind Jones.

In July, Jones pledged to use up to $2 million of his own cash from a pending business merger, which Jones strategist Sean Walsh said would have let him air ads after Labor Day.

“We felt fairly confident that a good chunk of money from him would have some of the more sophisticated donors step up to the plate in larger ways,” Walsh said.

But the merger between Jones’ Pacific Ethanol Co. and Accessity Corp., worth more than $20 million to Jones, was delayed and the windfall has still not landed.

“My only disappointment was I was not able to close with what I had hoped” because of the merger delay, Jones said Tuesday morning. In some ways, Jones’ campaign fell victim to distractions of the recall, last winter’s wildfires, the drama of the Democratic primaries and the focus since then on the presidential race.

But there were also Jones’ unmet expectations; his failure to ignite passion forced the campaign so dramatically onto the back burner that even Boxer’s fundraising slowed.

“Once you get the reputation as either incompetent, or you’re faltering, that becomes the narrative,” Kapolczynski said. “Our fundraising efforts became more challenging as the story of the race became ‘Barbara Boxer has no trouble winning, she’s going to be fine.’ ”