Florida Republicans Stage a Repeat of 2002, Not 2000

The demons of 2000 are history. This time, the margins in Florida were wide enough that its vote is not in doubt.

President Bush turned a statistical tie four years ago in a state that became synonymous with the polarization of a nation into a relative landslide. His winning this time by a margin of 300,000-plus votes over Sen. John F. Kerry instantly eliminated talk of legal challenges and removed a microscope from Florida’s much-maligned voting system.

The turnaround, according to strategists in both parties, was due to a Republican get-out-the-vote drive in the final days executed with quiet efficiency and drastically underestimated by the Democrats.

“It’s not so much that Kerry lost; it’s that the Bush campaign won,” said David Johnson, a Republican consultant in Tallahassee, who once directed the state Republican Party. “The Bush side squeezed their base as hard as they could squeeze it and got them to the polls.”

Florida Democrats, bruised and defeated handily just as they were when the president’s brother Jeb won reelection two years ago, hailed their own efforts -- noting that Kerry won half a million more votes than Democrat Al Gore did in 2000 when he ultimately lost the state after a recount battle.

But they conceded it was not nearly enough.

“We had a tremendous ground game, but they did theirs better,” said Florida Democratic Party Chairman Scott Maddox. “They drove a wedge with social issues and got people focused on gay marriage and abortion and faith rather than the war in Iraq and jobs.”

The Republican ground game mastered in Florida was first tested in Jeb Bush’s reelection, when he defeated a Democratic challenger by 14 percentage points. And the governor’s popularity helped his brother -- and by helping deliver Florida, increased his own standing as a national contender.

Maddox said the four hurricanes that struck Florida in the heat of the campaign hurt Kerry by limiting his campaigning in Florida while giving Bush repeated opportunities to tour damaged areas and appear presidential. He said the razor-thin finish in the Senate race between Republican Mel Martinez and Democrat Betty Castor more closely reflected the divided nature of the state.

Still, Maddox conceded that Democrats might have been hurt by ceding much of the pro-Kerry ground effort to independent groups, such as America Coming Together, rather than centralizing everything as the Republicans did.

Campaign finance laws prohibited the independent groups, called 527s for the tax code that governs them, from coordinating with the candidate’s campaign and party leaders.

America Coming Together, or ACT, poured millions of dollars into Florida, Ohio and other key battlegrounds, hiring thousands of staffers to canvass neighborhoods and register voters.

While Republicans relied on about 100,000 volunteers and a few hundred paid staffers in the state, ACT and other 527s hired thousands to do the canvassing, voter registration and final voter contacts -- a difference that GOP strategists felt gave their side an advantage in inspiring potential voters.

One ACT worker sitting outside a Miami polling place Tuesday, identifying herself only as Pamela, reflected that problem. She said she was working purely for the $300 paycheck for the week and, “I’d work for Bush, too, if he paid me.”

The vote in key Florida counties underscored Bush’s improvement over 2000 and shed light on the campaign’s strategy to find conservative votes in central and northern Florida that did not turn out four years earlier but this time did -- and thus depleted the historical Democratic advantage in South Florida.

Bush posted gains across the crucial Interstate 4 corridor, neutralizing what had been Democratic advantages in the Orlando and Tampa Bay areas.

Turnout was massive for Bush in the conservative Panhandle, stretching his victory in Okaloosa, Santa Rosa and Escambia counties by nearly 60,000 votes over his 2000 margins.

Exit polling conducted for The Los Angeles Times underscored Bush’s ability to mobilize the base.

A third of the electorate was conservative, while just one-fifth was liberal. About 95% of conservative Protestants backed Bush.

Florida voters 65 or older -- about one-fifth of the electorate and considered a key bloc for Kerry -- actually split their votes.

Bush did not do as well as Republicans had hoped among typically Democratic Jewish voters, winning about 20% despite aggressive outreach efforts touting the president’s support for Israel.

And support for the president seemed to ebb slightly among the traditionally Republican Cuban Americans amid efforts by Democrats to cut into that vote. He won more than 80% of Cuban votes in 2000, but the Times poll showed that 76% voted for him this time.

Clyde Collins, head of the Duval County Democratic Party, said Wednesday that he did not blame Kerry or his political machine for the loss, but attributed it to GOP dirty campaign tactics. He blamed Gov. Bush for setting a tone of suspicion in the state.

He said the vigilance of Democrats kept Republicans from using tactics such as repeated challenges meant to intimidate voters at the polls. Thousands of Democratic lawyers descended on Florida in anticipation of 2000-like problems.

“Did they back off from making challenges because they knew what the reaction was going to be? That’s the practical point of view,” he said. “I went to 20 precincts on Tuesday. At one, the clerk was asked by Republicans if she would call out the names of each voter, and she refused. It’s tough to challenge if you can’t hear the names. I think they were ready to do whatever was necessary to win.”

Others took a more conciliatory stand.

The Rev. Lee Harris, pastor at a Jacksonville Baptist church that became a staging area for Democratic vote-monitoring efforts, said he would concentrate on the positive despite the defeat. “I’m excited -- look at the positive impact we made,” he said. “For four years, Florida has been the laughingstock of the nation. The state had a black eye. They said we couldn’t even run a campaign right.

“Well, we watched what happened, and we made sure they did. We stopped what may well have been another disaster.”