Settlers Spark Risk of Civil War

The latest fad on Israel’s late-night television shows is to predict people’s reaction to a hypothetical assassination of Prime Minister Ariel Sharon. To some Israelis, the craze represents bad taste. To most, it is penetrating political analysis, especially now that Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat is dead.

Arafat’s death seems a huge victory for Sharon. The prospect of more pragmatic Palestinian leaders opens a rare window to restart peace negotiations. This may be true -- in the long run. In the immediate future, power struggles between Palestinian politicians, security organizations and terrorist factions are inevitable.

For Israeli settlers facing evacuation in Gaza, increased understanding between the Israeli government and the Palestinian Authority will mean mounting pressures to give up land. Civil war could result.

Two weeks ago, Avi Dichter, head of Israel’s General Security Service (the Shin Bet), warned that threats on Sharon’s life from Jewish extremists had drastically increased because of his insistence on withdrawing from Gaza. Sharon is already the most guarded leader in Israel’s history, protected around the clock by dozens of bodyguards. The Jerusalem street where his official residence is located is permanently closed to vehicles; neighbors need special permits to park. When driven the two miles to his office, the prime minister’s motorcade looks like something out a B movie. Sharon-the-classical-music-lover no longer attends concerts because the arrival of his huge security detail kills the joy of the event.

Nine years ago, a Jewish fundamentalist assassinated Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin at an outdoor peace rally. The assassin, Yigal Amir, claimed to have heard divine voices urging the killing. Although a lone wolf, Amir represented the frustration of thousands of right-wing Jewish extremists and settlers who wanted no peace between Arafat’s Palestinian Authority and Israel.

Today, comparable voices are heard across Israel, calling for the necessity “to act in a similar way” against Sharon to stop the proposed evacuation of 7,000 Jewish settlers from Gaza and an additional 1,000 clustered in four settlements in the northern part of the West Bank. To these Israelis, Sharon is a greater traitor than Rabin.

“I fear that another political murder is possible,” said Yitzhak Pantik, former head of the Shin Bet unit responsible for thwarting political subversion and violence. Pantik says that the same atmosphere of political hatred, religious extremism and messianic sermons that produced Amir and sanctioned his murderous intent continues. But there’s a crucial difference. For hard-core radical settlers, Sharon’s death is a must before the political reality can be reversed. They intend to “do whatever is possible” to block the Gaza relocation scheduled for next summer.

The majority of settlers will reject the financial incentives and compensation proposed by the government. They will refuse to leave the land Israel confiscated from Palestinians. Their leaders and rabbis are inciting Israel’s security forces to disobey orders. They denounce the Gaza disengagement decision adopted by the Cabinet, affirmed by the parliament and supported by nearly 70% of all Israelis as “illegitimate.”

The next stage of their opposition will be civil disobedience. Tens of thousands of supporters from other parts of Israel, especially their brethren on the occupied West Bank, and in Jewish communities in America will descend on Gaza. Some of these supporters may be used as a human shields.

But when the radicals talk about “whatever is possible,” they also mean something else. These are code words to take up arms.

Against whom?

At the Shin Bet’s headquarters in Tel Aviv, analysts prepare for the worst-case scenario. There are two major possibilities: One, Gaza settlers are backed into a corner and their anger, frustration and despair rises to the point where they turn their weapons against security forces trying to evacuate them: civil war. It may not be full-scale war, but it could mark the beginning of unprecedented violence among Jewish communities and the creation of private armies and militias. The settlers’ leaders know, however, that such acts would further isolate them and, accordingly, are reluctant to adopt this option.

A more likely possibility is that Jewish extremists will fire upon Palestinians as a provocation, which would set off a chain reaction of retaliation and counter-retaliation that would halt any plan to evacuate settlers from occupied lands. This was what Brooklyn-born Baruch Goldstein had in mind when he entered the mosque in the Tomb of the Patriarchs in Hebron a decade ago and murdered 29 worshippers.

Political commentators in Israel compare Sharon to France’s Gen. Charles de Gaulle, who gained power in 1958 in part on the promise to keep Algeria a French colony. But within two years, De Gaulle turned against his supporters and agreed to grant Algeria independence. French settlers and government right-wingers rebelled but failed to topple De Gaulle.

Sharon seems determined to bring his plan to fruition. The majority of Israelis, Israel’s Defense Forces, the Shin Bet and the national police are behind him.

But no one should underestimate the obstacles -- including civil war.