Ukraine Opposition Claims Win

Pro-Western opposition leader Viktor Yushchenko claimed victory in Ukraine’s presidential runoff Sunday and called supporters into the streets to ensure the vote count was fair.

A key exit poll showed Yushchenko winning easily over Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovich, who favors strong ties with Russia. Addressing supporters and reporters early today at his campaign press center, Yushchenko accused election officials of trying to rig the results and called on supporters to gather this morning in central Kiev’s Independence Square.

“Undoubtedly we have won the election. Please have no doubts, no disbelief in our victory,” he said. “Truth is on our side. God is on our side.... We are on the way to victory.”

He urged his followers to defend their votes.

“I’m talking about constitutional steps, about peaceful forms that would be adequate in response to the actions of authorities,” he added.

With about 74% of the ballots counted early today, Yushchenko was trailing Yanukovich 47.5% to 48.9%. But the exit poll financed in part by the U.S. Embassy and other Western diplomatic missions showed Yushchenko winning 54% to 43%.

If authorities move slowly with the counting, the final result may not be known for days. Sharp regional differences in support mean that early official counts are not necessarily indicative of the overall trend.

In past elections, the results from big eastern cities -- Yanukovich’s support base -- have come in first. In the first round of voting three weeks ago, Yanukovich led Yushchenko 54% to 29% in a field of 24 candidates when 8.6% of voting districts had been counted. But after 10 days of counting marred by allegations that authorities were trying to rig the results, Yushchenko edged out Yanukovich 39.9% to 39.3%.

In this final round, authorities have up to 15 days to announce the result -- meaning that the winner may not be known until Dec. 6.

The United States and other Western governments have become deeply involved in the election by helping to finance the main exit poll, conducted by a consortium of respected Ukrainian polling agencies, and by vigorously urging authorities to conduct an honest vote count. Russian President Vladimir V. Putin, meanwhile, made his preference for Yanukovich clear during a visit to Kiev just before the election’s first round.

Yushchenko, 50, is a former prime minister whose wife, Kateryna, is a Ukrainian American born in Chicago. He is particularly popular in western Ukraine and Kiev, areas that tend to look to Western Europe for their models. Yanukovich, 54, has strong support in the east, where many people feel a strong cultural affinity for Russia.

Although both men say they want good ties with all their neighbors, it is widely believed that a Yushchenko victory would move this country of 48 million toward warmer ties with Western Europe and the United States, whereas a Yanukovich win would edge it back into a tighter relationship with Russia.

After casting his ballot Sunday morning, Yanukovich was asked about possible protests. “I believe that the reason and level-headed thinking of Ukrainians will prevail,” he replied.

Outgoing President Leonid D. Kuchma, who backs Yanukovich, has been in power for 10 years, and this vote is regarded in part as a referendum on his rule. Some analysts believe that he and other powerful officials or wealthy businesspeople risk going to prison on corruption or other charges if Yushchenko comes to power.

In a Saturday evening address to the nation, Kuchma urged citizens not to contest official results. “There will be no revolution,” he said. “We shall have elections -- elections worthy of a 21st century European country.”

Kuchma’s election to a second term in 1999 was criticized by Western human rights groups for violating standards of fairness, as was the 2002 parliamentary election and the first round of this presidential contest. Kuchma has also faced protests over allegations that he was implicated in the 2000 slaying of a reporter.

The Western-backed exit poll is expected to influence how foreign governments, election observers and Yushchenko supporters evaluate the honesty of the official vote count.

Groups including the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization have sent large observer missions here to press for a fair election. President Bush dispatched Sen. Richard G. Lugar (R-Ind.), head of the Foreign Relations Committee, to monitor the vote.

Although generally peaceful, voting Sunday was marred by many reports of irregularities in voter lists and some charges that bands of Yanukovich supporters were traveling by bus to multiple polling stations to repeatedly cast absentee ballots.

After voting Sunday in central Kiev, Yushchenko said: “The scenario by the authorities of winning by cheating is utopian. It won’t work. Of course there will be fraud, but it won’t be enough to win.”

Pora, a student activist group that staged a march of at least 10,000 people demanding a fair runoff, has demanded that authorities announce a complete vote count by Tuesday, or else face protests.

Although some observers have warned that a conflict over the count could lead to a bloody crackdown, Anastasia Bezverkha, a spokeswoman for Pora, predicted that even if the election came down to a power struggle in the streets, both the protesters and security forces would remain nonviolent.

“The law enforcement authorities will not use physical violence, or blood, to stay in power,” she said. “It doesn’t make sense ... because when it’s about blood, when people die, it’s not a situation that will help them to stay legitimate.”

As Yushchenko’s supporters began filling Independence Square this morning, the atmosphere was more festive than confrontational. Among the 7,000 or so who turned up was Emilia Veryaovska.

“My ancestors fought for the freedom of Ukraine, and though I’m 68, I will fight for Ukraine, not only for my children but for all Ukrainians to live in a free country,” said retired pharmacist as the crowd listened to rock music and periodically chanted Yushchenko’s name.

“I couldn’t help coming here,” she added. “The KGB killed members of my family in 1952 and their blood calls me here.”