Bush and Kerry at Ease in Town Hall Setting

President Bush and Sen. John F. Kerry will face off tonight in a high-stakes debate featuring a format -- questions from voters -- that each has used to different advantage over the course of the campaign.

While the second presidential matchup will be more regimented than some of the town hall meetings popular on the campaign trail, the setting will test each candidate’s ability to field a variety of questions on domestic and foreign policy issues while trying to personally connect with members of the audience.

Analysts said the political dynamic had changed significantly since the eve of the first presidential debate, held Sept. 30. At that point, Kerry’s candidacy was struggling, and Bush strategists were talking about finishing off the Massachusetts senator with a strong showing at the University of Miami.

But it was Kerry who made the strong showing. Now that he is drawing even with Bush, the onus is on the president to recover from the first debate, one that even some Republicans considered uninspired.

“If Bush puts in a second poor performance -- if he looks like he’s not in command of the situation, stumbles over a few questions -- recovering in the third debate on domestic issues is going to be very, very hard,” said Thomas Schaller, who teaches political science at the University of Maryland’s Baltimore County campus. The final debate, devoted to domestic issues, is set for Wednesday in Tempe, Ariz.

Kerry’s advisors said they expected, above all, that Bush would strive to avoid the smirks and peevish frowns that characterized his first performance. The president’s aides said that they did not need to coach him to avoid such expressions this time, noting that he was conscious of how they had been perceived.

As with all of the debates, tonight’s format will not leave much room for the candidates to engage with one another -- or even with the audience.

According to the rules agreed upon by the two campaigns, the Gallup polling organization selected about 140 residents from the greater St. Louis area to attend the event at Washington University. The audience members are supposed to be undecided, or what political professionals call “soft leaners,” which means they may slightly prefer Bush or Kerry, but could be persuaded to change their minds.

Participants had to submit their questions in advance to the moderator of tonight’s debate, Charles Gibson of ABC’s “Good Morning America,” who will select which voters get to speak. Neither the candidates nor the people in the audience will know in advance whom Gibson intends to call upon.

If the audience member attempts to ask a different question than the one he or she submitted, Gibson is supposed to cut the person off. They also cannot follow up on their queries.

While not quite the same format, the numerous town hall meetings both candidates have held during the campaign offer glimpses of their dissimilar strengths.

Bush’s down-home style and affability are on full display at his events, which have been packed with ardent supporters who lavish him with praise. Dissenters rarely slip in, and are quickly ejected. Basking in these settings, the president is relaxed and personable.

During a July stop in Fond du Lac, Wis., Bush was faced with a little boy who mumbled his words inaudibly. Bush quickly offered his own interpretation. “I think he said: ‘Four more years,’ ” he told the audience, which rocked with appreciative laughter.

The president appears very much in command during these sessions, acting as the emcee and wielding a microphone as he directs the conversation. While he uses the forums to promote his policy initiatives, the events also highlight his sense of humor and charm.

During one such session in Orlando, Fla., shortly after the Sept. 11 attacks, he alternately commiserated with laid-off workers, defended the use of secret military tribunals to try suspected foreign terrorists and even joked about his mother’s cooking, leaving the 4,000 audience members in stitches. When a small girl shyly asked to shake his hand, the president did her one better. He met her halfway and kissed her on the cheek.

Kerry’s advisors believe the senator’s town hall meetings create a vivid contrast with those of the president, whose crowds are hand-selected by the local Republican Party.

“None of you here had to sign a loyalty oath to get in, did you?” the Democrat frequently asks audiences.

While he also encounters overwhelmingly friendly audiences, Kerry has tried to use the forums to win over undecided voters. In town hall meetings and “front porch discussions” -- often held on a residential street, or in a back yard -- he invites his audiences to test his mettle by peppering him with questions, a technique he used in the Democratic primaries when he was trailing far behind in the polls.

“I want you to look me in the eye, and I want you to ask me the tough questions,” he told more than 500 people in Greensboro, N.C., in early September. “Because I want Americans to know that I’m ready to stand up and lead this country where it needs to go.”

The forums often showcase Kerry’s tendency for long-windedness, as he answers questions with detailed, multi-part explanations. Occasionally, he demonstrates a knack for nimble, pithy retorts.

When a woman in Newark, Ohio, recently told him that she was a recovering Republican, Kerry quipped: “Do you have to go through a program for that, or do you just someday listen and embrace reason?”

The usually formal senator can be at his loosest when talking to voters in these settings. He rolls up his sleeves and ranges around the room, hugging audience members and often playing host with people unfamiliar with the glare of the klieg lights.

“Share with us any other feeling that you have about how you think we could respond, or what would make the most difference to you,” he gently asked Teri Dominguez, a unemployed pipe fitter and single mother, in Newark.

“I’m waiting for you, Sen. Kerry, to put the work boots back on American workers,” she replied.

During a stop in Austintown, Ohio, on Sunday, Kerry nodded his head in sympathy as steelworker Ray Raschilla haltingly relayed how an 11-month labor lockout at a local plant meant he could not buy his teenage daughter a homecoming dress.

Afterward, the candidate gave him a long embrace. “That’s hard to do, man, I tell you,” Kerry told him. “It’s hard to come up here and talk and share with everybody the pain of a father trying to take care of his daughter.”

Sometimes, the voters help humanize Kerry.

“I’m so excited to see you,” squealed a woman in Greensboro. “I think you’re hot!” The candidate blushed profusely.

“At my age, that sounds good,” he replied.

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Times staff writers Mark Z. Barabak, James Rainey and Peter Wallsten contributed to this report.

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(BEGIN TEXT OF INFOBOX)

Debate strategies

President Bush and Sen. John F. Kerry enter tonight’s debate in St. Louis with certain goals and expectations they hope to meet, and ideally exceed.

Kerry

Goal: A strong enough performance to build on the momentum from his first debate showing, which turned the presidential race from Bush’s advantage to a dead heat.

Expectation: An advantage as the debate shifts from foreign policy to a forum that will allow voters to ask about domestic issues, which are seen as more favorable Democratic terrain.

Potential risks: Long-windedness and failing to connect with questioners from the studio audience.

Bush

Goal: An improved performance that will stop his slide in the polls and raise doubts about Kerry’s suitability for the White House.

Expectation: A much better showing than last week, since Bush has often demonstrated an ability to come back strongly from his political setbacks. Also, the more intimate town hall setting plays to his strength as a personable campaigner.

Potential risks: Expressions of peevishness and irritation when challenged by Kerry or a member of the audience.

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The unknown: How many people will tune out the baseball playoffs to watch politics, especially on a Friday night?

Mark Z. Barabak

Los Angeles Times