Anti-Terror Squads Heighten Surveillance

As Italy prepares to protect the extraordinary gathering at the pope’s funeral Friday, security forces are rushing to deploy a phalanx of defenses: antiaircraft batteries, surveillance planes, helicopters and thousands of police and troops.

But perhaps the most vital work is taking place in the shadows.

After John Paul II died, Italian anti-terrorism police tightened surveillance of suspected Muslim extremists through wiretaps, the Internet and informants. Intelligence analysts reviewed past trends and threats against the Vatican and Rome. Liaison officers talked to Western counterparts about the expected convergence of 200 world leaders and millions of pilgrims here, an unprecedented event for the Italian capital.

The funeral could be a tempting target. Not only will President Bush and other heads of state be in attendance, but vast crowds will choke the streets and plazas of the Eternal City. An attack in the heart of the Catholic world might have particular appeal to extremist networks that try to capitalize on events and issues heavily covered by the media, European officials say.

Even before the pope’s death, fears of Islamic terrorism were high in Italy. Italian police went on alert after deadly train bombings in Madrid last year were followed by Spain’s withdrawal of troops from Iraq. There were indications that extremists would try to strike Italy -- whose troops remain in Iraq -- in hopes of further whittling down the number of countries in the U.S.-led military coalition.

Security chiefs are concerned but not panicked, said one top Italian anti-terrorism official who asked to remain anonymous for safety reasons.

“Right now we don’t have information on a specific big threat to Rome or the pope’s funeral, thank God,” the official said during a quick espresso break this week. “We are going over intelligence from 2003 and 2004 to update it. There is a big effort to exchange information with the CIA, the FBI, [Britain’s] MI-6, the [French] DST, etc.

“It’s clearly difficult to manage security when you will have millions of people and so many important personalities,” he added. “The positive side is that just as it has been a surprise for us, the terrorists have not had much time to prepare, either.”

The short notice combined with massive security will make an organized terrorist act hard to pull off, investigators and experts said. Nonetheless, authorities worry that an established group might try to accelerate an existing plot to hit Rome.

And there is the prospect of a smaller, “lone wolf” attack, given that Islamic extremism is driven as much by ideology and individual initiative as orders from a structured local command or a mastermind abroad.

“I think we have good control of the territory,” said an Italian intelligence official, who also asked not to be identified. “I think there isn’t a network on Italian soil with the logistics, the information, the weaponry to do something so fast. Terrorist operations are complicated and take time to prepare. But it’s hard to stop ‘induced’ terrorism: one crazy guy who gets worked up watching television and decides to act.”

The intelligence official recalled a case in the northern city of Brescia last year: A Moroccan-born extremist angered by the Iraq war built a crude car bomb and blew himself up at a McDonald’s drive-in, killing only himself.

On Friday, the Vatican will be so well-guarded that the dangers might be greater elsewhere in Rome, said Louis Caprioli, a former counter-terrorism chief with France’s DST. In a telephone interview, he recalled that the Madrid bombers chose suburban commuter trains rather than more prominent targets.

“The worst fear is not for the dignitaries, it is for the civilians on the periphery of the event,” said Caprioli, who retired last year and now works for a security firm in Paris.

Caprioli said Italian law enforcement had done a good job identifying and dismantling extremist networks. Last year, Italy’s lead anti-terrorist force, the DIGOS unit of the national police, captured a suspected leader of the Madrid train bombings in Milan, where he was allegedly coordinating the movement of aspiring fighters to Iraq.

Milan has been a hub of extremist activity since the mid-1990s, when Egyptians with ties to Al Qaeda established themselves in radical mosques and began recruiting among immigrants drawn by the northern city’s prosperity. In contrast, Rome has generated less work for anti-terrorism forces.

If extremists had been discussing the pope’s eventual death as a catalyst for action, European intelligence agents probably would have picked up rumblings, Caprioli said.

Surveillance has not detected any such conversations, Italian officials said. Although some Islamic extremists regard the pope as a leader of an enemy creed, security forces in recent years have not seen any “serious” terrorist threat against the Vatican, the anti-terrorism official said.

Reports of a plot to fly a hijacked plane into St. Peter’s Basilica on Christmas 2003 were based on a single, highly dubious intelligence source, Italian officials said. It was among several purported conspiracies that generated headlines in Italy, then crumbled for lack of evidence.

But there have been serious threats against churches elsewhere. In December 2000, European police forces broke up a German-based cell that was about to attack a street market around a cathedral in Strasbourg, France. The following year, a Tunisian-dominated group based in Milan discussed a plot against the Duomo cathedral. The members were arrested and convicted.

Overall, though, extremists in Europe show more interest in political targets than religious ones, investigators said.

“There is a certain restraint with regard to the Catholic Church and clergy, who are seen as people of God,” a veteran Belgian investigator said. “You don’t hear much aggressive talk about religious figures unless they are missionaries, who are seen as wanting to convert Muslims and therefore hated.”

The Italian intelligence official also pointed out that the Vatican opposed the Iraq war, the ideological engine driving much of Islamic extremism in the last two years.

Recent extremist propaganda tracts denouncing “crusaders” and “infidels” have not targeted religious figures like the pope but instead focused on leaders such as Bush, British Prime Minister Tony Blair and Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi, officials said.

Still, Italian police Friday will have to watch for terrorist plotters who might seek to exploit the massive media presence, experts said.

“I haven’t heard of any particular threat out there,” the Belgian investigator said. “But the problem is that it wouldn’t take much to make a lot of noise.”