Readers of the Tea Leaves Divine Signs of a Favorite

When he led the funeral Mass for Pope John Paul II, he spoke emotionally of his departed brother and quoted Jesus: “Follow me.” Every day since, he has been seen directing the business of a fatherless church.

And on Wednesday, a newspaper published excerpts of his latest book, “Values in Times of Upheaval,” ruminations on the besieged soul of Christian Europe.

With these hints, Cardinal Joseph Ratzinger became the focus of speculation that he was a leading candidate to succeed John Paul and become history’s 265th pope.

The balloting will not begin until Monday, when cardinals of the Roman Catholic Church gather in the Sistine Chapel to pray and select their new leader in an assembly known as a conclave. By all accounts, many of the 115 voting prelates have not yet made up their minds.

But in the secretive world of papal politics, and with the cardinals officially sworn to silence, Vatican watchers must content themselves with signs and semi-educated guesswork. On Wednesday the buzz swirled around Ratzinger, a German-born, conservative theologian who has served as chief enforcer of church doctrine for more than two decades.

Vatican experts at several of Italy’s leading newspapers reported that Ratzinger was gaining support among his red-hatted colleagues. Luigi Accattoli, writing in Corriere della Sera, Italy’s largest daily, said Ratzinger had won the support of about 40 cardinals in pre-conclave jockeying -- still short of the two-thirds majority needed.

Ratzinger represents the camp that advocates hewing closely to John Paul’s most traditional policies. An opposing bloc of cardinals is said to support change and “collegiality,” which refers to decentralization of Vatican power and the restoration of more independence to local dioceses.

Ratzinger, who turns 78 on Saturday, also may appeal to those seeking an older pope and a shorter, “transitional” papacy that would give the church time to absorb John Paul’s legacy before charting its future.

The cardinals are meeting in daily closed-door sessions and exchanging ideas “on the situation of the church and the world,” Vatican spokesman Joaquin Navarro-Valls said. Ratzinger, as dean of the College of Cardinals, usually directs the meetings. On Wednesday, for example, he received condolences from diplomats representing some of the 174 countries that have relations with the Holy See.

In one meeting this week, a catalog was distributed to the cardinals with biographical information on each. All of the “princes of the church” are eligible for the papacy.

“We are still getting to know each other,” said a cardinal from Latin America who spoke to the Los Angeles Times this week despite a news blackout imposed by the prelates last week.

Another church official said several cardinals were dismayed that they had not been able to establish more informal contact with one another or hold smaller, ad hoc meetings. The cardinals do not move into shared housing until Sunday.

Ratzinger has played a prominent role in church proceedings since John Paul’s death, starting with his leading of the funeral Mass.

“There is a consensus of esteem building around him,” said George Weigel, author of “Witness to Hope,” a biography of John Paul. Weigel follows Vatican politics closely and likes Ratzinger. “He is seen as holy and brilliant, and in Friday’s funeral he held the piazza,” he said, referring to the effect he had on those in attendance.

On Wednesday, the Sueddeutsche Zeitung newspaper of Munich published excerpts from Ratzinger’s new book. A spokeswoman for the publishing house, Herder, said the release date was “just a coincidence” and not tied to the papal election.

“In order to survive, Europe needs a critical acceptance of its Christian culture,” Ratzinger wrote. “Europe seems, in the very moment of its greatest success, to have become empty from the inside. Crippled, as it were....”

Many in the church hierarchy, including Ratzinger, worry that Catholicism is under assault from secularism, relativism and Islam, especially in Europe, where Christianity has traditionally been dominant. It is thought to be a theme of the cardinals’ discussions, and it could boost the chances of the next pope being European.

The speculation about Ratzinger came as the Vatican opened John Paul’s grave site to the public. Thousands of people lined up outside St. Peter’s Basilica, descended into the grottoes under the church and filed past the simple, white, marble tomb. Many said they were praying for miracles.

Elsewhere, cardinals limited their public remarks to homilies in churches around Rome. They focused almost exclusively on the legacy of John Paul, who died April 2 at age 84.

At the end of his homily, Cardinal Cormac Murphy-O’Connor of Britain made a somber appeal. “We have a grave responsibility,” he said, “a very grave responsibility, to elect a new pope. We will need your prayers.”

Also Wednesday, at the sixth of the nine memorial Masses for John Paul, Archbishop Leonardo Sandri delivered a homily that recalled many of the late pope’s encyclicals and pastoral letters. As Vatican undersecretary of state, Sandri was John Paul’s “voice” in his final weeks, reading aloud his messages when he could no longer speak.

Sandri said in his homily at St. Peter’s that God had guided each important decision made by the pope, whose often deeply conservative teachings have left Catholics divided.

“Those who were able to take part in the daily activities of the pope have been witness to his deep love for the Eucharist,” Sandri said. “Before taking important decisions, he often stood a long time before the holy sacrament, [after] taking with him into the private chapel the dossiers to examine and setting aside time for reflection and prayer. Each decision taken that way was influenced by God’s will for the true good of the church.”

Sandri concluded the service with what could be interpreted as an allusion to a popular movement to canonize John Paul.

“We are certain that John Paul ... is now receiving the crown of the celestial prize from Christ himself,” Sandri said. “To us -- who remember him as a sure guide, as a shepherd ready to give his life for his flock -- he leaves the extraordinary riches of his teaching, his wisdom and his profound humanity.”