Retailers Hoping for Last-Minute Holiday Shopping Surge

U.S. retailers remained hopeful that late shoppers would bring glad tidings this season, amid signs that the pace of sales had quickened in the last week.

They drew further hope from surveys indicating that more procrastinators than usual could hit stores before Christmas rolls around Sunday.

Sales at stores open at least a year picked up in the seven days through Saturday, rising 2.4% from the previous week, the International Council of Shopping Centers reported Tuesday. The group’s survey of about 70 retail chains showed that sales rose an adjusted 3.9% from the comparable period last year.

“It’s not, by any means, a strong season,” said Michael Niemira, the council’s chief economist, who expects a year-over-year sales increase of 3% to 3.5% for the month and for the combined November-December holiday season. “But, on the other hand, it was never expected to be.”

Still, it was what hadn’t happened in many households in the last seven weeks that had Niemira and another leading retail watcher suggesting a strong finish to the season.

Americans have fallen “behind the curve” with their shopping this year, Niemira said, and that means retailers can expect “a big push” this week.

Only 26% of 1,000 households polled by the council said they had wrapped up their holiday shopping by the end of the day Sunday, compared with 31% at the same point last year.

In fact, a surprising number of shoppers had not even started buying presents as the final week got underway, said Britt Beemer, chief executive of retail tracker America’s Research Group.

Through Sunday evening, 6% of the 800 people queried by telephone said they had not begun shopping yet, twice as many as in 2004 and the highest percentage of procrastinators Beemer could recall in 25 years of polling.

But it wouldn’t surprise Long Beach resident Andy Saenz, a fire department engineer who was shopping with his wife, Jennifer, at South Coast Plaza in Costa Mesa on Sunday.

“I personally know a lot of guys who say they are not going to start shopping until Saturday the 24th,” he said.

The calendar this year presents several wrinkles that could affect the final tally during the crucial sales season, during which some retailers collect as much as 40% of annual revenue.

Christmas Eve falls on a Saturday for the first time since 1994, giving last-minute shoppers a nonwork day to buy gifts and lending a what’s-the-hurry feel to the season, analysts said.

That could bring a surge in buying that includes Friday, a day off for many Americans, as well as the following Monday, when many shoppers are expected to return unwanted gifts, redeem gift cards and take advantage of post-holiday sales.

In addition, some shoppers could be playing “retail chicken,” waiting until the last minute in the hope that antsy retailers will slash prices further.

This year’s late Hanukkah, which begins Sunday, also could give retailers a lift in sales this week, some analysts say.

“It certainly means that more is riding on this last week for retailers,” Niemira said.

J.C. Penney Co. had an “excellent kickoff” to the selling season during the Thanksgiving holiday weekend, spokesman Tim Lyons said, but the company won’t provide additional sales updates until next month.

The retailer expects that Christmas Eve will be “a huge day,” he said. It has beefed up its advertising for the final days and is marking down some merchandise 30% to 60%, he said.

“We’re still optimistic we’ll make our forecast,” he said.

On the other hand, the transit strike that gripped New York on Tuesday heaped a new layer of uncertainty on the season. Retailers there typically rack up about $250 million a day in the week before Christmas, said Marshal Cohen, chief industry analyst for NPD Group.

Although today is only the first day of winter, weather also has played a role in shaping the season thus far, causing many people to bundle up rather than venture out, said Bill Kirk, vice president of retail operations for SDI Weather Trends.

The country as a whole is having its coldest December in five years, although weather has improved in much of the nation recently, Kirk said, noting that “in Chicago the other day the high was 11 degrees.”

Weather won’t keep folks indoors here, though. Kirk said Los Angeles should bask in 73-degree temperatures on Christmas Day, its warmest in five years.