Behind the Scene, a Divvying Up of Political Spoils

With election results expected to be certified in a few days, Iraq’s rival political players are engaged in intense closed-door talks to determine how key positions will be allocated in the transitional Iraqi government.

Along with the posts of prime minister and president, many patronage-rich Cabinet and sub-Cabinet jobs are on the table in a nation where billions in U.S. aid money will be flowing.

A kind of ethnic-political carving up of the political spoils is underway as party leaders hasten to ensure that those whose votes they need in the transitional national assembly get a piece of the action.

One Western diplomat referred to the process in a “big bang” theory -- all the jobs and who gets them will be hammered out in advance among major blocs and then presented to the new legislature as a fait accompli. The point is to avoid last-minute surprises.

“This is going to be done as a package,” predicted another Western official. “There’s so many people trying to get into this act, I guess you might end up with one or two ministries you haven’t heard of” before.

Observers say that even before the final election results were in, backroom deals were already being cut. Turbaned Shiite Muslim clerics were said to be taking on the role of ward leaders, seeking deals from secular Iraqi politicos who occasionally enjoy a glass of whisky and a game of backgammon.

Intensive deal-making was underway Monday at the heavily guarded offices of Abdelaziz Hakim, a cleric who heads the Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq.

The supreme council and the Dawa Party, a sometime rival Islamist group, which have strong ties to Iran, are the two major participants in the Shiite-led slate that won 4 million votes, a 48% plurality of the ballots cast Jan. 30, according to provisional figures released Sunday. The Shiite grouping, known as the United Iraqi Alliance, will have a dominant position in the 275-member transitional national assembly, with about 140 seats, according to a proportional allocation formula.

However, the alliance’s inability to garner a majority of the votes cast -- some had predicted a 60% landslide for the alliance since Shiites make up about two-thirds of the population -- means that its leaders will probably have to concede more than expected as they seek deals with other blocs, including the Kurdish slate, which received about 25% of the vote. A two-thirds majority in the assembly is needed to approve the three-member presidency council charged with selecting a prime minister and Cabinet.

Iraqi electoral authorities are expected to certify balloting results this week after reviewing complaints from various parties. The new national assembly will meet for its inaugural session once the votes are certified. The assembly is charged with forming a new government and writing a constitution.

A Shiite-Kurdish coalition in the assembly, if it holds together, can amass about 75% of the body’s votes, representing a political juggernaut.

But such an alliance of convenience would produce odd bedfellows: Kurdish leaders are largely secular, whereas the top vote-getting Shiite slate stresses the role of Islam; Shiite politicians generally maintain a public distance from U.S. officials, but the Kurdish leadership views Washington as a strong ally; and, perhaps most significantly, Shiite leaders look with disfavor on the Kurdish push for autonomy, especially as regards ethnically divided, oil-rich Kirkuk.

A Kurdish-led party swept to victory in regional elections in Kirkuk amid cries of foul play from Arabs and Turkmens.

The Kurds, thrilled at their ascension to the halls of power in the capital where they were long excluded, have lobbied for one of their leaders, Jalal Talabani, to become president, a largely ceremonial position.

The Shiite bloc is believed to be keen on installing one of its own in the powerful prime minister’s post. The leading candidates appear to be Ibrahim Jafari, an interim vice president with Dawa, and two of Hakim’s closest associates -- Adel Abdul Mehdi, the interim finance minister, and Hussein Shahristani, a nuclear scientist.

A potential dark-horse candidate for prime minister is Ahmad Chalabi, the onetime Pentagon pet who had a falling out with his longtime sponsors in Washington. Chalabi has reinvented himself as a Shiite power broker.

Shiite leaders aren’t the only ones who covet the support of the Kurdish bloc. Interim Prime Minister Iyad Allawi, favored by the U.S., made a pointed visit recently to Kurdistan and embraced Kurdish strongmen. Allawi, a secular Shiite, is a crafty political player whose slate nonetheless finished a distant third in the election, with about 14% of the vote. Most analysts agree Allawi is in line for a top spot, perhaps a Cabinet position.

The losers in last month’s election were the long-dominant Sunni Muslim Arabs, who largely stayed away from the polls for many reasons -- insurgent intimidation, a boycott and opposition to the 170,000 U.S. and other foreign troops on Iraqi soil. But Sunni Arabs hold a trump card -- the ability to block the new constitution in a national referendum to be held by Oct. 15 -- and must be brought into the government.

Iraq’s insurgents are mostly Sunni Arabs, who make up roughly 20% of the population. And the ultimate hope of U.S. officials and their Iraqi allies is that more Iraqis will put down their Kalashnikovs and rocket-propelled-grenade launchers and be enticed to participate in the political process.

Among the Sunni Arabs expected to be offered posts in the new government is Ghazi Ajil Yawer, the interim president. Leading Sunni Arabs are expected to also be named to the committee charged with drafting the constitution.

“The people who have a substantial number of seats in the new assembly are going out of their way to accommodate” the losers, said Adnan Pachachi, a senior Sunni politician whose slate was shut out. “They realize they need the support of everyone. Without it, we will have a fractured and divided society.”