U.S. Commander Says 2005 Goal Is to Reduce Troops

Nearing the end of his deployment, the top U.S. ground commander in Iraq said he hoped the military could begin reducing its forces there by the end of 2005, and that he had been disappointed by the lack of intelligence from Iraqis about the insurgency.

In a wide-ranging interview a few weeks before he hands over his command in Baghdad, Army Lt. Gen. Thomas F. Metz said U.S. military officials believed that a series of offensives in insurgent strongholds had secured most of the country in time for Iraqis to go to the polls this weekend.

But Metz said the surge of information from Iraqis -- critical to counterinsurgency efforts -- that U.S. commanders had expected after an interim government took over June 28 had not materialized.

“After the transfer of sovereignty, I anticipated more intelligence from the Iraqis. That increase in intelligence has not developed as fast as I would have liked,” Metz said by telephone from Baghdad in an interview late last week.

After Sunday’s election, Metz said, U.S. commanders will work with the new Iraqi government to develop its intelligence-gathering abilities.

Metz, a North Carolinian known for his calm demeanor and common touch with troops, led counterinsurgency operations in Iraq during a year that saw Shiite and Sunni Muslim uprisings in April, the transfer of political authority in June, the battle against rebel Shiite militiamen inside Najaf’s Imam Ali Mosque in August and the retaking of the Sunni Triangle city of Fallouja in November.

It was a year in which an insurgency claimed the lives of hundreds of U.S. troops, prompting American commanders to refocus efforts on training Iraqi security forces, which have a mixed record in battle.

Metz said he was confident that Iraqi security forces could be built up significantly during 2005 and be able to handle the insurgency in most parts of the country by the end of the year.

“As that intent is realized, we believe we’ll be able to gradually reduce the number of coalition forces,” he said.

On Monday, a senior general said Army planners expected to maintain force levels in Iraq at roughly 120,000 U.S. troops for at least two years, although those numbers could decrease if Iraqi troops became more capable or if the level of violence in the country fell.

Lt. Gen. James Lovelace, the Army’s operations chief, said Pentagon planners had to assume there would be no decline in the number of U.S. troops in Iraq in order to train enough combat units and give soldiers and their families enough notice before deployment.

“We make the assumption that the level of effort is going to stay the same,” Lovelace told reporters at the Pentagon. “It’s about providing the predictability for our own people.”

Though the Pentagon has been forced to keep far more troops in Iraq than anticipated, Lovelace said he remained confident that the Army could sustain its rapid pace of deployments without sparking an exodus from its regular ranks.

The Army is experiencing larger problems among its reserve and National Guard troops.

Last month, Lt. Gen. James R. Helmly, the Army Reserve’s commander, wrote a memo to senior Defense Department officials saying that because of extended deployments and “dysfunctional” Pentagon policies, the reserves were “rapidly degenerating into a ‘broken’ force.”

Senior U.S. officials have been careful not to establish a firm timetable for when American troops might be able to leave Iraq in significant numbers, saying the future of the U.S. military effort in the country hinges on whether the insurgency gains or loses momentum under the new Iraqi government.

U.S. troops are scrambling to secure some of Iraq’s most violent Sunni-dominated areas ahead of the election. Commanders are focusing on Nineveh province, which includes the northern city of Mosul, and Al Anbar in the west, which includes Fallouja and Ramadi. The two provinces are likely to have the biggest problems on election day, officials said.

Metz, who is in charge of day-to-day military operations in Iraq, will be replaced next month by Lt. Gen. John R. Vines, commander of the 18th Airborne Corps based at Ft. Bragg, N.C. Like Metz, Vines will answer to Gen. George W. Casey, the top U.S. military official in Iraq.

Metz is optimistic that Baghdad will largely be secure on election day, although he said the Sunni neighborhoods of western Baghdad would be more problematic than the Shiite neighborhoods to the east.

In recent months, Metz said, progress has been made in the Sadr City sections of eastern Baghdad. The predominantly Shiite slum that is home to 2 million Iraqis was a center of the uprisings led by radical cleric Muqtada Sadr in April and August. After Sadr agreed to a cease-fire in October, the U.S. poured millions of dollars into the neighborhood for reconstruction.

Now, Metz said, the insurgent strikes in Sadr City once depicted on the “attack maps” in his headquarters have all but disappeared.

“There used to be so many dots [on the maps] in Sadr City that you couldn’t see Sadr City,” he said. “If I see a dot in Sadr City now, that surprises me.”

This weekend’s elections, however imperfect, represent progress toward broader U.S. efforts in the Middle East and Central Asia, Metz said.

“It will be a free election right in the middle of the Middle East,” he said. “Combine that with the recent elections in Palestine and Afghanistan, and somebody has got to admit that there’s some momentum going on.”