Secrets and Epidemics
The avian flu is known to have killed 32 humans last year -- hardly enough to trigger global concern, it seems. But viruses have a habit of mutating in ever more harmful ways, and there are signs that avian flu could be on the verge of turning into a much greater threat, capable of killing millions of people around the world.
That was the conclusion of top World Health Organization officials in the wake of a study published in Thursday’s edition of the New England Journal of Medicine. The only thing stopping avian flu from raging through human populations, epidemiologists believe, is that it hasn’t mutated in ways that allow efficient human-to-human transmission. The new study, however, suggests that this may be changing.
The first strategy that was tried -- stopping the virus in its tracks -- has failed. Despite the slaughter of more than 100 million birds, the virus is thriving in poultry farms throughout Asia.
Earlier this week, the WHO was forced to halt a meeting of its 32-member executive board because delegates couldn’t agree on whether to let poor countries ignore drug patents, should massive infections of avian influenza break out in humans. The opposition to granting such exceptions, led by French and U.S. officials, is shortsighted. These nations have already agreed to grant patent exceptions to poor countries for drugs to treat AIDS and HIV, which can fell people over months or years; it’s illogical for them to forbid such exceptions for drugs to treat avian influenza, which can be fatal in a few days.
But the most effective strategy for tackling avian influenza shouldn’t cost any money at all, unless you count political currency. The leaders of wealthy nations, particularly President Bush, must push Asian nations to cooperate rather than resist efforts to investigate and quell the disease.
What’s needed is a commitment from China’s leaders -- who lied for months last year about the number of their citizens infected with another virus, SARS -- that they will not conceal what they know about any human avian flu outbreaks. There are signs that China may be encouraging dangerously irresponsible policies. In recent months, poultry farmers have been buying vaccines on the black market that keep their chickens alive without killing avian influenza, thus doing nothing to stop its spread. Thailand recently banned the use of such vaccines, but China has been promoting it.
Without information on outbreaks, epidemiologists can’t track the progress of the disease and organizations such as the WHO can’t develop effective ways to fight it. When it comes to potential scourges like avian flu, secrecy can be deadly.
