China Shot Itself

As the world’s leading arms exporter, the United States hardly has much credibility in demanding that the European Union continue its 16-year-old arms embargo on China. But in this case China has only itself to blame if the EU opts to keep it in place.

China’s adoption of an anti-secession law aimed at Taiwan that reserves the right to use military force plays into the hands of the Bush administration and Congress, which adamantly oppose the sale of European weapons to China. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice increased the pressure Monday when she declared in Beijing that if the EU lifted the ban, it “would not send the right signal.”

European weapons sales would stoke the Asian arms race, even if they would be unlikely to radically change the region’s balance of power. If the Europeans sold advanced fighter jets to China, Taiwan would turn to the U.S. for increased sales, which Congress would almost surely approve. But for China, which nurses memories of being carved up by Western imperial powers in the 19th century, the issue is primarily about pride; it’s livid at still being treated as a pariah nearly 16 years after the brutal suppression of Tiananmen Square demonstrators.

France, the world’s third-biggest weapons seller, has never hesitated to provide African and Middle East dictators with arms, and is chafing to treat China like a normal country that poses no threat to peace. What’s more, EU foreign policy chief Javier Solana says the embargo is “unfair” and wants to increase the organization’s clout by wooing Beijing.

China has been counting on these two allies to prevail, but it overlooked the unwieldy, democratic nature of the EU. No matter how powerful France is inside the union, it can’t, like the Chinese Politburo, carry out its will by fiat. For one thing, Germany doesn’t want to risk another quarrel with the U.S. And China’s peremptory anti-Taiwan move has emboldened Britain and other countries to point to Beijing’s abysmal human rights record. Without a consensus, the EU cannot terminate the weapons ban.

It would be foolish of the Bush administration to assume that its views on China carry much weight with Europeans. If the administration tilts too far toward Taiwan -- John R. Bolton, its nominee for United Nations ambassador, is a rabid supporter of independence -- the push to supply China with arms will gain new backers in the EU. But for now, the Chinese are once more discovering that dealing with democracies is a messy, unpredictable business. It’s a lesson Beijing would do well to remember before it threatens Taiwan again.