General Predicts Reduction of American Troops in Iraq

The top U.S. military commander in Iraq predicted Sunday that the United States would make “very substantial reductions” in the number of troops there by March 2006.

Army Gen. George W. Casey did not offer a specific number, which he said would depend on progress in establishing security and political stability in Iraq.

“By this time next year ... we should be able to take some very substantial reductions in the size of our forces,” Casey told CNN’s “Late Edition.” The general is the most senior American official to date to predict a major troop reduction within the year.

President Bush paid tribute to the U.S. military as he left Sunday services at the chapel at Ft. Hood, Texas. It was the third consecutive year he had gone to the Army base, about 50 miles from his ranch near Crawford, for Easter services.

“We prayed for peace for our soldiers and their families,” Bush told reporters. “It’s an honor to be here at Ft. Hood to celebrate Easter with those who wear the nation’s uniform.”

Ft. Hood, the largest active-duty Army base, is home to the 4th Infantry Division, which is to embark within a few months on its second tour in Iraq, and the 1st Cavalry Division, which is returning from a yearlong deployment there.

A major drop in troop levels in Iraq, where nearly 150,000 Americans are now serving, would ease a growing burden that has stretched the military.

The war has exposed cracks in recruitment and retention programs, with the regular Army, Army Reserve, National Guard and Marine Corps all falling short of their recruitment goals. Meanwhile, some lawmakers on Capitol Hill have offered bills requiring the Army to increase its numbers.

Casey said the troop reduction depended on the development of an Iraqi government, increased political participation by Sunni Muslims, who form the backbone of the insurgency, and progress in training Iraqi security forces.

Iraqi forces lack an effective command structure and some, particularly the police, are slow in responding to their new mission in a post-Saddam Hussein era, senior defense officials said.

The Iraqi troops have suffered some serious setbacks since April, when many abandoned their posts rather than fight Iraqi insurgents in the rebel hotbed of Fallouja and elsewhere.

On Sunday, Army Gen. John P. Abizaid, who as head of the U.S. Central Command is Casey’s boss, said the Iraqi forces appeared to be making significant improvements this year.

“By the end of 2005, provided the political process continues to be successful, you will see the Iraqis more and more in charge, and in some areas completely in charge,” Abizaid said on the same CNN program.

The U.S.-led coalition in Iraq has not dealt a decisive blow to the insurgency, Casey acknowledged. “We have not broken their backs. That’s clear,” he said. “They are able to maintain the level of violence between 50 and 60 attacks a day. But as we’ve seen all along, in 14 of the 18 provinces in Iraq, there are three or less incidents of violence a day. So this is a localized insurgency.”

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Times staff writer Warren Vieth at Ft. Hood contributed to this report.