Military Base Closure List Is Shorter, Rumsfeld Says

Military chiefs planning the next round of base closings have recommended reducing the nation’s base capacity by 5% to 10% -- far less than had been expected, Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld said Thursday.

The Pentagon plans to issue recommendations today for which installations to shrink or close, a process that once was projected to eliminate 20% to 25% of bases and base capacity.

But the earlier estimates failed to account for as many as 70,000 troops that would be returning from downsized overseas bases, particularly in Europe, Rumsfeld said. Also affecting closure plans are military mobilization and deployment strategies, he said.

News that the cuts were likely to be smaller than expected was welcomed on Capitol Hill, where lawmakers were braced to argue on behalf of bases in their districts.

Yet, if approved without major changes by the Base Realignment and Closure Commission and by Congress, it could still mark the largest round of base closures to date. The four previous rounds combined, from 1988 to 1995, cut about 21% of the military’s base capacity.

The Pentagon this year has been steadily reducing the estimate of the impact the base closings would have on the nation’s 400 major installations and other facilities.

On Thursday, as supporters of the nation’s most vulnerable bases sweated the announcement to follow, Rumsfeld dropped his estimate to its lowest point yet.

“Instead of 20 [%] to 25 [%], it’s closer to 5 [%] to 10%, I think,” Rumsfeld said.

Describing the coming cuts in sweeping terms -- and without specifics -- Rumsfeld and members of the Joint Chiefs of Staff depicted a U.S. military consisting of fewer but larger bases that may house different military services on the same site.

The Pentagon’s recommendations on which facilities should be closed, moved or otherwise “realigned” were to be detailed in reports to Congress and affected communities beginning today. The changes will save the government about $48.8 billion over 20 years, Rumsfeld and the officers said.

The Pentagon also expects to save $2.2 billion each year by reducing its presence on foreign bases, he added. The plan to be presented today was one of more than 1,000 scenarios considered, defense officials said.

Because it is such a politically volatile process nationwide, Congress set up a complex procedure requiring the Pentagon to submit its recommendations by today to the presidentially appointed Base Realignment and Closure Commission.

After the commission devises its recommendations, it reports to the president in September. Bush can approve the report or send it back to the commission, which then must resubmit it in October. In November, the base closings are submitted to Congress.

The closures are likely to hit the Northeast especially hard. Intensively developed and densely populated, the region is considered costly and has few places that can accommodate large numbers of troops and their associated facilities, said a senior defense official who spoke on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to discuss the closure recommendations.

Bases are likely to continue their migration to the South and West, largely due to space reasons, said the official and industry analysts who follow base developments.

A new national emphasis on domestic security could ease cuts in coastal regions such as California, which lost 24 bases and 40% of its active-duty troops in previous base closure rounds. Among the bases closed were the El Toro Marine base in Orange County, the Long Beach Naval Shipyard, the Presidio of San Francisco and Ft. Ord near Monterey.

“We looked at it from the homeland defense viewpoint and the department’s obligations under homeland defense,” said Air Force Gen. Richard B. Myers, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff.

West Coast lobbyists are focusing on preserving such sites as Beale and Travis Air Force bases in Northern California and Los Angeles Air Force Base. The latter, an El Segundo research complex with no runways or planes, houses about 4,500 civilian and military workers who oversee $60 billion in defense technology contracts.

Once on the closure list, fewer than 1 in 10 bases makes it off. In previous rounds, the commission altered less than 15% of the list delivered by the Pentagon. This year, the Pentagon hopes to keep that figure lower still, said Michael W. Wynne, deputy undersecretary of Defense for acquisition and technology.