Predicted Monster Storm Proves to Be a Perfect Dud

Call it “The Imperfect Storm.”

A cold low-pressure weather system that was supposed to draw strength from a plume of subtropical moisture, drenching Southern California with up to 4 inches of rain Wednesday, basically fizzled out.

Because, unlike the tempestuous weather described in the book and movie “The Perfect Storm,” the key elements that should have joined forces never quite got together.

Instead, there was some light rain in the Los Angeles area, and forecasters say there could be a little more today. But that’s about it. Skies are expected to start clearing Friday, with mostly sunny and warmer weather through the weekend.

In “The Perfect Storm: A True Story of Men Against the Sea,” author Sebastian Junger described how a cold air mass from Canada collided with an extratropical weather system off the coast of New England in the fall of 1991, creating a devastating storm of gargantuan proportions. On Tuesday, meteorologists saw what appeared to be a much smaller, but somewhat similar situation developing off the coast of California.

A cold “cutoff low” was sitting about 100 miles west of Point Conception, south of Lompoc. Cutoff lows, not uncommon at this time of year, are storms that are literally cut off from the main storm track by divisions in the high-altitude jet stream winds that encircle Earth.

Left to meander on their own, the storms can end up stalled off the California coast. Where and when they will move next is hard to predict. As the cutoff low circled counterclockwise Tuesday, it began picking up strength from a vast plume of subtropical moisture that stretched across the central Pacific to the Hawaiian Islands.

Forecasters said the intensifying storm seemed to be moving inland, with a threat of thunderstorms, flash floods, hail, lightning and possible small tornadoes and waterspouts.

“One to 3 inches of rain can be expected across the foothills and mountains, with local amounts up to 4 inches possible,” the National Weather Service said in an advisory issued Tuesday morning.

But the timing wasn’t quite right, weather service meteorologist Eric Boldt said Wednesday.

As the moist subtropical air started moving east, the cutoff low stayed where it was, he said. The interaction between the two was marginal, and the rain was light, for the most part.

“The low is out there by itself, and it’s stopped pulling in that plume of moisture,” Boldt said Wednesday afternoon. “The chances of heavy rain now are pretty slim.”

He said the low was expected to move slowly south before heading inland today near the Mexican border.

Forecasters said that heading down the coast there was about a 30% chance of showers across Los Angeles County, a 40% chance in Orange County and a 50% chance in San Diego County.