Outlook for Holidays Is Murkier

The outlook for the holiday shopping season grew murkier Thursday as September sales results from the nation’s big retailers suggested that consumer anxiety about the economy is growing.

Discounters such as Wal-Mart Stores Inc. had a solid month as Americans struggling with higher gasoline prices and the economic fallout from Hurricane Katrina shopped for basics.

But results were disappointing at mall-based apparel stores including Gap Inc., Ann Taylor Corp. and Talbots Inc.

The question now is how generous shoppers will be during the holiday season.

“Uncertainty is always bad for retailers,” said Michael P. Niemira, chief economist at the International Council of Shopping Centers. “And that uncertainty did not vanish with today’s reports. We have the same worries about gasoline prices, home heating and the sustainability of consumer demand.”

Wal-Mart, which had seen its sales slow amid higher gasoline prices for months, had an easier time in September. The world’s largest retailer had a 3.8% increase in same-store sales, matching the consensus forecast of analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial.

September’s business was boosted by post-hurricane demand for such staples as canned food, water and cleaning supplies and by higher-than-anticipated sales at its Sam’s Club division due to increased gasoline prices. Many warehouse clubs sell gas.

The retailer said that the effect of the hurricanes on the third quarter would decrease profit by about a penny a share, but it was still sticking to its projected range of 55 cents to 59 cents.

Rival Target Corp. had a 5.6% gain in same-store sales, better than the 4.9% estimate.

Costco Wholesale Corp. reported an 11% increase in same-store sales, helped by the rise in gas prices. Excluding the effects of gas price inflation, Costco’s same-store sales would have been up 8%. Analysts expected a 6.7% gain.

High-end stores posted decent gains, though Nordstrom Inc. reported a more modest same-store sales increase of 4.1%, which was below the 4.4% estimate.

Neiman Marcus Group Inc. had a robust 9.6% same-store sales increase, better than the 6% estimate.

Among other department stores, Federated Department Stores Inc., whose acquisition of May Department Stores Inc. was completed Aug. 30, had a 1.3% increase, above the 0.6% forecast. Same-store sales include only Macy’s and Bloomingdale’s locations open for more than one fiscal year.

J.C. Penney Co. had a 1.4% gain in same-store sales in its department stores, a bit below the 1.5% Wall Street estimate.

Talbots incurred a 5.1% drop in same-store sales, far below the 2.3% gain Wall Street expected. Arnold B. Zetcher, chairman, president and chief executive of Talbots, noted that based on his company’s annual consumer survey, apparel demand is largely being hurt and spending delayed by “macro-economic factors.”

“Our research indicates that concerns about rising fuel prices and the economy have created a more conservative mindset among the vast majority of those surveyed,” he said in a statement.

Ann Taylor had a 2.7% drop in same-store sales, worse than the 1.6% gain analysts expected. Kay Krill, president and CEO of Ann Taylor, said business was hurt by unusually warm weather, which hurt consumers’ appetite for cold-weather wear.

Limited Brands Inc. had a 2% decline in same-store sales, matching Wall Street estimates.

Gap same-store sales dropped 6%, though that was better than the 7.2% decline Wall Street anticipated.

Teen retailers generally fared well.

Abercrombie & Fitch Inc. reported a 21% increase in same-store sales in September. Analysts had expected 16.4%.

But Hot Topic Inc. struggled with a 5.6% decline in same-store sales, better than the 6.4% drop analysts expected.

American Eagle Outfitters Inc. reported Wednesday a 13% increase in same-store sales for September, surpassing the 10.7% estimate.