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Democrats Keep Mum on Miers Nomination

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Times Staff Writer

For a town in which partisan warfare is daily background noise, there is an unusual silence these days on one side: Despite Republican discord over the Supreme Court nomination of Harriet E. Miers, Democrats have been holding their fire.

On Capitol Hill, the revelation last week that Miers expressed anti-abortion views on a questionnaire as a Dallas City Council candidate years ago found most Democrats studiously avoiding confrontation on what is usually a fire-hot controversy. Regardless of their personal views on abortion, few publicly expressed strong reactions to Miers’ answers.

“Do you have a gut reaction to the questionnaire?” a reporter pressed Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid of Nevada at his weekly news conference on the party’s priorities.

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“No,” Reid replied, and asked for a new question.

After Democrats spent years preparing for confrontation with Republicans over a Supreme Court nomination, their silence on Miers might seem odd.

“It’s the dog that didn’t bark,” said Don Stewart, communications director for Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas), perhaps Miers’ most ardent supporter in the Senate. “I’m still waiting for the Democrats to come out and start mischaracterizing her,” Stewart said.

Several factors help explain why Democrats are generally keeping mum.

First, there is the unusual spectacle of Republicans -- once lauded for their discipline -- wounding each other. Part of the GOP’s right wing is in open revolt against a nominee they find disappointing, with some conservative commentators calling openly for her withdrawal.

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“For Democrats, this is the rubbernecking phase,” said Luke Albee, former chief of staff to Sen. Patrick J. Leahy of Vermont, the ranking Democrat on the Judiciary Committee. “Democrats are watching slack-jawed as problems mount for Republicans.”

Few expect President Bush to withdraw Miers’ nomination; such a move would be uncharacteristic of him. But at least some unhappy conservatives are hoping that continuing public pressure will cause Miers to step aside of her own accord.

So far, Democrats aren’t playing a major role in the criticism of Miers because of a simple political calculation: If your opponents are shooting themselves, don’t stand in the way of the bullets.

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“This time, the president has picked a fight with the right wing, who wanted an extremist named to the court, and they are not happy with Harriet Miers,” said a Democratic leadership aide, who like Capitol Hill staff members interviewed for this story spoke only on the condition of anonymity when discussing party strategy.

“The best thing the Democrats can do is to let this process play out,” the aide added.

Another calculation is that although few senators are fervent Miers supporters, for now neither side in the chamber wants to be faulted for sinking the nomination. Both liberals and conservatives fear that if Miers is forced to withdraw, Bush could pick a nominee they like even less.

“If she withdraws, we want to be able to blame [conservatives] for it,” said a second Democratic leadership aide. “The situation is obviously fluid right now, but we’re always mindful of who might replace her.”

That helps explain another political oddity: At this point, many Senate Democrats and Senate Republicans share some of the same views about Miers. These lawmakers see her as a C-plus candidate for a seat on the nation’s highest court. And they believe Miers has been too close to the president to have developed a clear judicial philosophy of her own.

As a result, both sides say her nomination probably will succeed or fail as a result of her performance in televised hearings before the Senate Judiciary Committee, scheduled to begin Nov. 7.

“She has a burden,” said Sen. Herb Kohl (D-Wis.), a committee member, after meeting with Miers last week. “Everyone who comes before this committee has a burden, but I think her burden is perhaps higher.”

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“The only thing that’s going to be fatal to this nomination is how she performs before the committee,” said Sen. Charles E. Grassley (R-Iowa), another committee member. “If she performs all right, then she’s obviously going to be approved. But if she doesn’t perform well, she probably won’t be approved.”

According to Democratic staffers, perhaps a dozen Democratic senators are inclined to vote to confirm Miers despite her shortcomings, more than making up for the few Republicans who might vote against her. That means that barring a new, disqualifying revelation or a poor showing in front of the Judiciary Committee, Miers remains favored to win Senate confirmation.

“Everyone feels that mathematically, this woman is a lock for confirmation; there’s just a price to pay with conservatives,” said a third Democratic leadership aide. “It comes down to how many Republicans are willing to hold their noses and vote for her.”

The truly tricky decision for Democrats would come if Miers had a bad showing in her committee hearings and her support among Republicans eroded further, to 49 or fewer of the chamber’s 55 Republicans. At that point, Democrats would be in position to decide her fate.

Few observers expect the nomination to get to that point however.

“I don’t think the Democrats are secretly plotting to either derail her nomination, nor do I believe they are plotting how to salvage it,” said Albee, the former aide to Leahy. “They are proceeding as they should. Her nomination will rise or fall with the outcome of the Judiciary Committee hearings.”

As a result, said Grassley and other senators, all bets are off for both parties until Miers has her day -- or a week -- in front of the camera.

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“Between now and then,” Grassley said, “it doesn’t really matter what happens.”

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