Not a One-Horse Race

Whether the Pacific 10 Conference season is really only a race for second, this much is fact: USC’s closest games the last two seasons have come from inside the league, not out.

California gave USC its only loss in 2003 in a triple-overtime thriller. Last season, Stanford, Cal and UCLA lost to undefeated USC by three, six and five points before the Trojans beat No. 2 Oklahoma by 36 in the Orange Bowl.

“No one is invincible,” Oregon State receiver Mike Hass said.

UCLA tailback Maurice Drew agreed.

“I know ‘SC is the team right now, but they can lose at Oregon or Cal and it wouldn’t be a surprise to teams in conference,” Drew said.

The Trojans must travel to Oregon -- facing the Ducks for the first time in three seasons -- as well as Arizona State and Cal, site of their last loss.

“I don’t know what to expect,” USC Coach Pete Carroll said. “I just know every game is going to be really hard. You don’t know how the games are going to take shape. I mean, look at last year. Both teams from Northern California were really difficult on us, so you just don’t know.”

A look at the conference, in predicted order of finish:

*--* 1. USC

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Coach: Pete Carroll, fifth year

2004 record: 13-0, 8-0

Outlook: You can look at who’s gone -- offensive coordinator Norm Chow, defensive linemen Mike Patterson and Shaun Cody, linebackers Matt Grootegoed and Lofa Tatupu -- or you can look at who’s back. Two Heisman Trophy finalists -- quarterback Matt Leinart, the winner, and running back Reggie Bush -- among 14 returning starters. The Trojans are trying to become the first team to win three consecutive Associated Press national championships after nine other teams failed. If they win, they’ll have earned it, with a schedule that includes road games against Oregon, Arizona State, Notre Dame and California and late-season games at home against Fresno State and UCLA, all before their ultimate goal, a No. 1 vs. No. 2 bowl championship series title game at the Rose Bowl.

*--* 2. CALIFORNIA

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Coach: Jeff Tedford, fourth year

2004 record: 10-2, 7-1

Outlook: Marshawn Lynch is the reason Cal isn’t worried about its running game after losing J.J. Arrington, whose 2,018-yard season was third-best in Pac-10 history. Even as a freshman backup, Lynch had two 100-yard games, caught eyes with touchdown runs of 43, 55 and 70 yards, and averaged almost nine yards a carry, tops in the conference. Replacing Aaron Rodgers at quarterback is more of a question. Tedford named redshirt freshman Nate Longshore to start the first game ahead of junior college transfer Joe Ayoob. People expect big things from freshman receiver DeSean Jackson from Long Beach Poly, but overall Cal lost a lot of experience on both sides of the ball from last season’s top-10 team.

*--* 3. ARIZONA STATE

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Coach: Dirk Koetter, fifth year

2004 record: 9-3, 5-3

Outlook: The Arizona State program won’t so much get over as get past the off-season tragedy that left former player Brandon Falkner dead and tailback Loren Wade charged with first-degree murder. On the field, record-breaking quarterback Andrew Walter will be replaced by Sam Keller, who filled in for the injured Walter against Purdue in the Sun Bowl and completed 25 of 45 passes for 370 yards and three touchdowns. Receiver Derek Hagan has consecutive 1,000-yard seasons and caught 83 passes last season. Seventeen starters are back, but the defense gave up 27 points or more in six of eight Pac-10 games.

*--* 4. OREGON

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Coach: Mike Bellotti, 11th year

2004 record: 5-6, 4-4

Outlook: A losing season and 50-21 loss to Oregon State left the Ducks smarting a mere three years after finishing No. 2 in the nation. Kellen Clemens is a third-year starter at quarterback, and there is a new offensive coordinator in Gary Crowton, the former Brigham Young coach who has installed elements of Utah’s spread offense. At tailback, Terrence Whitehead rushed for more than 1,000 yards last season and freshman Jonathan Stewart is expected to make a splash, though both have been slowed by injuries. Perhaps the biggest factor in the Ducks’ favor is their schedule: They play Cal and USC at home.

*--* 5. UCLA

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Coach: Karl Dorrell, third year

2004 record: 6-6, 4-4

Outlook: A 12-13 record in his first two seasons and two losses in bowl games clearly make this an important season for Dorrell. The Bruins have been picked as high as second in the Pac-10, with seven offensive starters and eight defensive starters back. The offense is led by 5-foot-8 tailback Maurice Drew, a 1,000-yard rusher, tight end Marcedes Lewis and quarterback Drew Olson, who was named the starter going into the season after returning from knee surgery but faced competition from redshirt freshman Ben Olson. Linebacker Spencer Havner led the Pac-10 in tackles. The Bruins should get an idea early where they stand when Oklahoma visits Sept. 17. Otherwise the schedule is favorable, with only three plane trips.

*--* 6. WASHINGTON STATE

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Coach: Bill Doba, third year

2004 record: 5-6, 3-5

Outlook: Alex Brink, a sophomore, won the quarterback battle during practice, outplaying Josh Swogger, a junior who started six games last season before breaking his foot. Brink took over and helped Washington State beat UCLA and Washington in November. Receiver Jason Hill is a top offensive player, but the key to bouncing back from a disappointing season might be running back Jerome Harrison, who rushed for 900 yards despite starting only five games -- and had a 247-yard performance against UCLA. Senior linebacker Will Derting leads the defense but has been slowed by a hamstring injury.

*--* 7. OREGON STATE

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Coach: Mike Riley, third year (fifth at OSU overall)

2004 record: 7-5, 5-3

Outlook: Quarterback Matt Moore, who started four games for UCLA in 2003 before leaving school after Drew Olson was given the position, has claimed the Beavers’ starting job vacated by Derek Anderson. Receiver Mike Hass -- a former walk-on who became a third-team AP All-American last season after leading the Pac-10 with 86 catches for 1,379 yards -- is the team’s star. (It certainly isn’t a running back: Oregon State was last in the nation in rushing, averaging fewer than 71 yards a game.) A season that ended with a victory over Notre Dame in the Insight Bowl soured with off-season player arrests.

*--* 8. ARIZONA

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Coach: Mike Stoops, second year

2004 record: 3-8, 2-6

Outlook: The only major-college team in the nation to score fewer points than Arizona last season was Washington. “I felt myself giving a lot of commitment to the defense last year, making sure it was implemented the way we wanted it,” said Stoops, previously defensive coordinator at Oklahoma under his brother Bob. “I’ve switched some of my responsibilities this year so the offense feels my presence and is more aware of what we want to accomplish.” Quarterback Richard Kovalcheck has recovered from back surgery, and a well-regarded recruiting class includes several players competing for starting jobs. But playing Utah, Purdue, Cal and USC in the first five games is a difficult start.

*--* 9. STANFORD

*--*

Coach: Walt Harris, first year

2004 record: 4-7, 2-6

Outlook: After Tyrone Willingham left for Notre Dame after a 9-3 season in 2001, Stanford lost nine games the first season and seven in each of the next two. Now Willingham is back in the Pac-10 at Washington, and Stanford is trying to recover from the Buddy Teevens era with new Coach Walt Harris, a South San Francisco native who spent the last eight years at Pittsburgh, winning 25 of his last 38 games. Harris chose Trent Edwards, who started the first nine games at quarterback last season before injuring his shoulder, to run his West Coast offense system ahead of T.C. Ostrander, who finished the season as the starter.

*--* 10. WASHINGTON

*--*

Coach: Tyrone Willingham, first year

2004 record: 1-10, 0-8

Outlook: The game at Husky Stadium on Sept. 24 figures to be high on hype, though perhaps not entertainment: Notre Dame, where Willingham lasted only three seasons with a 21-15 record, will visit its ex-coach on his new turf. Washington, its own past glory sullied by a one-victory season, hopes Willingham can do what he did for Stanford, and more. Last season’s Huskies were last in the nation in scoring and passing efficiency and had 42 turnovers -- 12 more than any other Pac-10 team -- so it will take time. Junior Isaiah Stanback will start at quarterback after Oregon transfer Johnny Durocher was declared ineligible for the first three games because he had not fulfilled NCAA transfer requirements. Former starter Casey Paus will be the backup until Durocher returns, Willingham said.

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Times staff writers Gary Klein and Lonnie White contributed to this report.