Ventura County Economy Still Healthy, Report Says
Despite rising gas prices and modest job growth, Ventura County’s economic outlook remains healthy, with several benchmarks still strong, including housing sales and construction of new homes, offices and commercial centers.
And although the county’s housing prices are considered overvalued -- with the median price of existing homes reaching a record high of $694,690 in July -- there is little fear of a sharp drop. Instead, local real estate values are expected to gradually flatten out in the months ahead as the result of a slowdown, said Mark Schniepp, director of the California Economic Forecast, a Santa Barbara-based economic consulting firm.
“The bubble will not break,” Schniepp said during an update of his 2005 economic predictions at a conference Thursday in Westlake. “We feel the local real estate market will not be especially vulnerable any time real soon.”
The number of homes sold this year was up 7.1% through July, compared with the first seven months of 2004. The county’s median home price -- the point where half of the new and existing homes and condominiums cost more, and half less -- increased nearly 11% during the same period. But the rate of appreciation has slowed dramatically, from a more than 32% growth rate in 2004 to 12.6% on average this year, according to Schniepp’s 72-page report.
By comparison, median home prices in neighboring Los Angeles County are up 20.4%, to $543,890, while Orange County saw prices jump 9% to $706,820.
In Ventura County, the most affordable areas remain in the western portion of the county -- Fillmore, Port Hueneme and Santa Paula -- but they also had the greatest appreciation. In July, a home in those cities ranged from $518,000 to $570,000, representing appreciation of nearly 20% to more than 33%.
Despite modest job growth, with only 1,800 non-farm jobs added last year, the county’s unemployment rate remains at an all-time low of 4.6%, which analysts said is good news for the long term.
“The labor market is definitely at full employment here,” Schniepp said. “There’s not much job creation, but there’s not much unemployment either.... Average salaries have risen sharply as a result. It really is an employee’s market here and in most coastal communities in Southern California.”
Even the prospect of 2,250 positions being shifted from Naval Base Ventura County to the Navy base at China Lake is not expected to have a big effect on the local economy. A panel evaluating base closures and realignments has forwarded its recommendations to President Bush and Congress for approval.
The job transfers would not take place for four to six years and many of those government and civilian employees have indicated they would like to remain in the county. With many of them highly-skilled, their prospects are strong, Schniepp said.
“Will it pose an impact to the economy?” he said of the job transfers. “We don’t think so. And even if many of these Navy civilian employees elect to stay here, many of them are going to have lots of job opportunities, so we may not lose those jobs. I don’t think it’s a big issue for Ventura County, given what we know now.”
Meanwhile, Schniepp said investment in commercial construction in the first seven months of 2005 “is very strong -- the highest rate since 1999 and the second-highest since the late 1980s” when adjusted for inflation. About 10.5 million square feet of commercial space has been approved for construction countywide and an additional 3.3 million square feet of projects are pending.
Two of the largest residential and commercial projects planned are Riverpark in Oxnard, which is expected to break ground this year for 2,800 homes and 2.47 million square feet of commercial and office space, and the Simi Valley Town Center, a regional mall set to open before Christmas.
