Colombians’ Trust Buoys ‘Teflon’ President

To hear his critics tell it, Colombian President Alvaro Uribe ought to be in trouble.

The foundation of his mandate, a promise to tame this nation’s unrelenting civil war, is tottering. Attacks by leftist rebels have surged since the beginning of the year, and hundreds of soldiers have died.

Accusations of cronyism and nepotism have dogged his administration, while unemployment and poverty remain stubborn challenges throughout the country. Cocaine continues to be a major export.

But with just a year to go in his term, Uribe, 53, is riding a wave of popularity unmatched almost anywhere in the Americas. His approval ratings rarely dip below 70%, and are so resistant to criticism and complaints that some have taken to calling him Colombia’s “Teflon president.” Only one other democratically elected leader in the region, Venezuela’s populist president, Hugo Chavez, pulls in such impressive numbers in the polls.

How the center-right Uribe, a Harvard-educated attorney who entered the presidential race four years ago practically as an unknown, has maintained such a high level of support is a testament, analysts say, to his government’s single-minded pursuit of public security during his tenure -- and his carefully cultivated image as a tough-minded, hard-working leader and man of the people.

“He confronts problems very directly and in direct, colloquial language. He has a great capacity for communication with the ordinary citizen,” said Alfredo Rangel, director of the Security and Democracy Foundation, a think tank in Bogota, the Colombian capital.

In many ways, Uribe’s clear-cut, with-us-or-against-us approach to the battle against Marxist guerrillas and his appeal to patriotism have invited comparisons with President Bush. The two men, both former governors, are staunch allies, and Colombia has received billions of dollars in aid from Washington for its fight against drug trafficking and the left-wing guerrillas.

Rangel said Uribe’s penchant for portraying issues in such stark terms, and the public adulation heaped on him, has had unwelcome effects as well, such as stifling legitimate dissent and criticism.

“It has generated an environment where to talk badly about Uribe is seen as being unpatriotic, sort of like it was in the U.S. to criticize the Iraq war,” Rangel said. “To talk badly about Uribe is to ruin the collective fiesta. People continue thinking that Uribe is a redeemer, and they want to continue believing in their redeemer.”

Known for his flashes of temper and what some consider highhanded ways, Uribe thrives on direct contact with voters, but Rangel warned that politics based on personal charisma could be “problematic for democracy in the long term” if Colombia’s political parties or other state institutions became weakened.

That Uribe’s administration has brought about greater social stability is hard to deny.

Killings and kidnappings, though still widespread, have fallen since he was elected in 2002; this year’s homicide rate is on track to be the lowest in 25 years.

Attacks on major urban centers by the left-wing Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia, or FARC, have become rare. Right-wing paramilitary groups are engaged in peace and demobilization talks. State highways previously too dangerous to travel because of the conflict are navigable once again, at least during daylight.

By the start of this year, Uribe had all but declared victory against the FARC, asserting that his Democratic Security plan to beef up police and military forces had thrown the rebels into disarray and put them on the run.

But those claims proved premature: Rebels have since struck back hard. In June, at least 20 Colombian soldiers were killed in a single FARC attack on a remote army outpost in the jungle near the border with Ecuador, leading Uribe to concede that aspects of his security strategy in the south were in need of rethinking. In all, more than 300 troops have been killed this year.

Guerrillas also have stepped up attacks on infrastructure, setting oil wells ablaze, blowing up pipelines and disrupting electricity supply. Two blackouts this month in southwestern Colombia left at least half a million residents without power, some for days.

“The government and perhaps some analysts were a little too triumphalist” in their claims that the rebels had been defeated, said Michael Shifter of the Inter-American Dialogue think tank in Washington.

“But I think the other extreme, to say that they haven’t been hurt, is inaccurate. They have suffered some losses.”

Although serious, the security setbacks have not dented Uribe’s popularity.

“Uribe is just [such] a remarkable president that even when things go badly, he benefits,” Shifter said. “He’s the guy who put the security issue as the overriding priority on the agenda.... Even though there have been lots of problems with it, and one could question how much security has been improved, it’s still an issue with which he’s totally identified, and people think that there’s no other option other than to improve the capacity of the security forces to protect Colombians.

“There’s just a sort of a trust in him,” Shifter added. “He has built that bond and connection with people through his leadership style. And it’s not immediately obvious what an alternative would look like.”

To maintain that bond, Uribe holds regular town hall meetings around the country to hear complaints and to promise solutions, gatherings that are broadcast for hours on national television. He routinely recites, and seems to fulfill, his personal motto, “Work, work, work.”

All eyes are now on the nine people who may hold Uribe’s political fate in their hands: the members of the nation’s Constitutional Court. The body is expected to rule soon on legislation passed last year that would permit Uribe to run for reelection, which sitting Colombian presidents currently are barred from doing. A decision is likely to be handed down by year’s end.

Polls show that Uribe would be in formidable position to win a second four-year term, which he openly wants, if he is allowed to run in May’s election.

But which way the court will rule is now “the million-dollar question,” Shifter said, with analysts and legal observers divided over what the outcome will be.

Fernando Londono, a former interior and justice minister, predicted recently that the amendment would be rejected, which could spark a political crisis because Uribe has not groomed a clear successor and his rivals are comparatively weak.

But Rangel said the judges could be swayed by public opinion and concern over the fallout of a decision to keep the ban on reelection in place.

“There are very solid, very strong arguments to accept or reject the constitutional amendment,” he said.

“So in the final analysis, the decision by the court will be a political one.”