A Jump in Transit Ridership? Look to Cost of Gas, Gas, Gas

Local transit agencies Tuesday reported hikes in bus and rail use since gas prices began their precipitous rise. But a day after President Bush urged Americans to conserve energy, there were signs of a definite ceiling for the number of Southern California motorists willing -- or able -- to switch from cars to mass transportation.

Both the Metropolitan Transportation Authority, which operates buses and subways, and commuter-rail operator Metrolink recorded more than 5% increases in passengers in August over the same month last year.

Although officials said they were impressed by the increase, the rises are similar to those in April and March 2004, when gas prices jumped.

This suggests a relatively small percentage of motorists are willing and able to give up driving solo during times of rising gas prices, transportation experts said. And those who do switch tend to have the longest commutes. According to the 2000 census, about 15% of commuters in the Southland carpooled to work everyday and about 5% rode public transit.

Gerald Couch, a La Quinta real estate agent filling up at an Alhambra gas station Tuesday, said he would like to use mass transit more -- but a job selling property across Southern California makes it impossible.

“It’s pretty hard to use public transportation when you work in real estate,” said Couch, 60. “You’re at the beck and call of your customers.”

He is far from alone.

“Left to their own devices, people will choose the mode that’s cheapest to them -- not just in out-of-pocket costs but in time costs,” said Jim Moore, an engineering professor at the Center for Transportation Research at USC. “If they have a medium income, and the time cost of transit is high, the cost of gasoline has to go up quite a bit for it to wash out.”

Genevieve Giuliano, another transportation professor at USC, said drivers are more likely to make other, less obtrusive changes in their lifestyle before trying mass transit. And Southern California is so spread out that many drivers would have to commute to bus stops or train stations to use mass transit.

“Time is very valuable to people,” she said, “And they’re asking themselves, ‘Am I going to give up 30 minutes twice each day in order to save some gas money?’ The answer’s probably no.”

Indeed, ridership on MTA’s Rapid Bus routes has remained flat and ridership on its express buses, which drive longer distances with fewer stops, has risen only slightly.

For example, the express line that travels from Santa Monica to Union Station in downtown Los Angeles went from 3,039 boardings in July to 3,111 in August, said Rick Jager, an MTA spokesman.

MTA’s overall ridership increased nearly 8% from 36.5 million boardings in August 2004 to 39.4 million last month.

Jager said MTA probably would not see a significant bump in ridership until gasoline prices stayed high for a while.

“Probably for shorter trips, people will not take the bus or rail until gas exceeds the $3 mark and stays there for a long period of time,” he said. “ ... We realize that because of people’s working hours and the type of work they do, it just won’t fit for some of them.”

Jager and others suspect that long-distance commuters are the most likely to try mass transit. And figures from Metrolink, which runs commuter trains between downtown Los Angeles and outlying counties, appears to bear that out.

Last month, Metrolink posted big ridership gains, with 39,057 boardings in August compared with 37,086 in the same month last year.

“We’ve actually seen in the last two months some unusual gains, and we can’t really explain them, but we suspect they may be due to the jump at the pump,” said Denise Tyrell, a spokeswoman for Metrolink.

Robert Peters was using an MTA Gold Line train for the first time Tuesday because his pickup truck was in the shop for repairs. But it may be a blessing in disguise, the 28-year-old contractor said.

“If it turns out the trains run on time, I might take the train all the time because of gas prices,” said Peters, who was waiting at the Gold Line Lake station to head home to Corona.

Peters went online Monday night to study the train schedule and brought a pocket novel to pass the time. He said he was ready to try anything now that he pays $80 a week for gas.

“I remember when it was under a buck per gallon,” Peters said.

On the same platform was Richard DeLeon, a truck driver who started taking the train every workday two months ago when he said gas prices got “ridiculous.”

So instead of spending $50 to fill up his Ford Bronco, the Pasadena resident was leaning on a Metro bench waiting for the train to come and take him to downtown Los Angeles on his $3 day pass.

“I’d be driving right now if gas wasn’t so expensive,” said DeLeon, 46.

Ridership across the region posted mixed results as gas prices have increased.

The Orange County Transportation Authority reported notable increases in ridership on Metrolink, express buses, and bus routes linked to rail stations -- forms of transit heavily used by commuters.

From January to August, as the average price of gas climbed from $1.98 a gallon to $2.77 in Southern California, boardings on express buses posted a 13.7% gain, while rail station-linked bus trips jumped 16.6% and transfers by Metrolink passengers to OCTA buses rose 23.1%. Overall bus ridership, however, only increased about 1%.

OCTA reported 4.9 million transit boardings in January and 5.8 million in August. Authority officials cautioned that it is difficult to determine how much new ridership is directly attributable to the high gas prices. Transit use is seasonal, dropping off with inclement winter weather and climbing during the warmer spring and summer months.

Ridership on the San Bernardino commuter rail line inched up 1% from July to August, with about 11,700 passenger trips a day. Weekend ridership soared from the previous month -- 13% more on Saturdays and 19% more on Sundays -- though weekends typically attract far fewer people, according to San Bernardino Associated Governments.

Officials at the Riverside Transit Agency, which provides bus service to most of urban Riverside County, are hoping for a continued upswing in passengers, as its ridership grew 6.5% from July to August. August numbers, however, were 8.2% lower than in 2004. The agency said ridership dipped because of higher bus fares that took effect in April.

Back in Pasadena, Gold Line rider Greg Huntoon proudly said he’s no longer stressed by rising gas prices.

“I don’t complain about gas prices,” he said. “I have the [Gold Line]. I have a bike. I have my legs.”

Times staff writers Ashley Powers and Dan Weikel contributed to this report.