Positive signs from a tumultuous year

AS the new year begins, let’s review the key events of 2005 in search of clues to smart travel this year:

* A slight recovery of the U.S. dollar: Last year saw improvement in the value of the dollar -- 10% against the euro and slightly more against the Japanese yen. The cost of travel to Europe and Japan therefore has lessened a bit. Because travelers have grown used to high prices in Europe and Japan, many observers think Americans will return in great numbers to transatlantic and transpacific travel in 2006.

* A heightened concern about hurricanes: The calamitous storms of August and September that wrought enormous damage in Louisiana, Mississippi, Florida and the Caribbean may cause many people to avoid those areas at that time of year. For the optimist willing to take a chance, this may result in substantial summer travel bargains.

* The elimination of New Orleans as a vacation destination: The Big Easy seems to have been eliminated -- at least for 2006 -- as a holiday location. Substitutes? Charleston, S.C., springs to mind. Its hotels, restaurants and attractions have been improved in recent years and its Southern heritage is largely preserved.

* The gradual elimination of cruise discounts: The cruise lines did so well in 2005 that the prices we saw from 2002-04 (seven-day sailings for $399) are unlikely to return in 2006, except for short slump periods in travel (such as the first three weeks of January).

* Tourism to Israel: The number of bombings in Israel has dropped, and tourism has begun to increase. Tour operators that once eliminated the country from their programs are offering bargain packages.

* The rise of the “aggregators”: Most of the disputes have been resolved between the aggregators of airfares (www.mobissimo.com www.sidestep.com, www.farechase.com, www.kayak.com and others) and certain carriers (American Airlines especially) and other airfare search engines (such as www.orbitz.com). Accordingly, the aggregators now will be able to claim that when you access their sites, you will receive a comprehensive list of all the available fares (other than holdout Southwest). Use of the aggregators is expected to increase dramatically.

* The continued growth of travel to China and Vietnam: Record numbers of Americans traveled to these Asian nations in 2005, and more tour operators are offering low-priced packages there. Because travel in China and Vietnam continues to be cheap (a product of undervalued currencies in both nations), many Americans will place the two countries at the top of their list of vacation destinations for 2006.

* The worsening plight of Amtrak: The nation’s passenger rail service sustained serious blows in 2005: the loss of its president, late funding of its needs and an ongoing battle to obtain funding.

* A sharp decline in the quality of aviation within the U.S.: Unable to make a profit and beset by bankruptcies (United, Delta and US Airways, among others), the airlines and airports experienced one of their most difficult years. Planes and airports were constantly crowded, service declined, and one amenity after another was removed from flights. About the only course for a smart traveler is to arrive at an airport well in advance and come equipped with books to read and sandwiches to eat.

* Bombings in Bali and London: The subway and bus bombings in London, along with hotel bombings in Bali, reminded us that terrorists continue to threaten our existence. The fact that travel to London continued unabated and that Bali tourism was only slightly affected shows that travelers are not permitting terrorists to rob them of the pleasures of traveling.