Peruvian Winner Gloats Over Chavez

President-elect Alan Garcia declared Monday that the weekend vote here featured only one loser: “Someone who doesn’t even carry Peruvian identification.”

That would be Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez, whose protege, Ollanta Humala, was beaten decisively in Sunday’s runoff with Garcia.

There is little question among those who have followed the election that Chavez’s strong backing of Humala, and vocal heckling of Garcia and President Alejandro Toledo, backfired at the ballot box.

U.S. officials could hardly contain their glee that Chavez’s ambitions of hemispheric leadership hit a wall in Peru.

Humala denied reports of financial contributions from Chavez. But Garcia made Chavez an issue in the campaign, accusing Venezuela of interfering in a Peruvian election.

“We have to choose between Chavez and Peru,” Garcia told reporters during the campaign.

Garcia also denounced Chavez as a “petroleum satrap” and “midget dictator with money.” Garcia even labeled Chavez an “imperialist” and “militarist,” terms the Latin American left usually reserves for Washington.

But the triumphal tone from Garcia and Washington may be premature -- and, analysts warn, could come back to haunt him should the president-elect insist on marginalizing Humala, a retired army officer who has garnered a strong loyalty among poor voters in this Andean nation.

In six months, the pugnacious Humala has created a fervent political movement that accounts for the largest bloc of a divided Congress, and which won a majority of votes in most of Peru’s states Sunday.

“Even though Humala didn’t win the presidency, his ascendance and the support he got was pretty stunning,” said Michael Shifter, an analyst with the Inter-American Dialogue, a Washington think tank. “If Garcia is going to be able to govern effectively, he needs to pay close attention to that message.”

Some have speculated that Humala’s forces could agitate to oust the government if President-elect Garcia’s administration is anywhere near as inept as its 1985-1990 incarnation, which left the country in economic and political shambles.

The robust vote for Humala, who won the first round and received about 46% of the vote in Sunday’s runoff, illustrated the deep discontent of many in a nation with a history of social upheaval. Humala tapped into the anger of the poor and working classes left behind as mining and other big economic interests reaped record profits.

“It is a situation of much frustration that could turn into violent demonstrations,” noted Cecilia Blondet, a political analyst here. “It’s too early to say it, but one can’t discount the possibility of a violent reaction.”

Relatively few here express confidence in the governing powers of Garcia, whose volatile personality and egoism may not bode well for a president who must seek alliances. Polls showed that Garcia’s core support was no more than one-quarter of the electorate, largely die-hards of his party, APRA.

“This was a borrowed victory,” said Lourdes Flores, a veteran congresswoman who lost to Garcia and Humala in the first round of the presidential vote. “Many voted for Garcia out of fear of Humala.”

It became a cliche here to say -- as Peru’s most illustrious author, Mario Vargas Llosa, declared -- that many held their noses as they voted for the mercurial Garcia.

Not only do many recall the hyperinflation, guerrilla warfare and food shortages that characterized Garcia’s 1980s stint as president, but the erratic behavior that earned him the nickname Caballo Loco (Crazy Horse) was on display as recently as two years ago, when Garcia kicked a disabled man at a rally, a scene that was shown repeatedly on national television. He later apologized and attempted to befriend the man.

To his critics, Garcia is a charmer who bankrupted the nation and led a corrupt regime. During the campaign, he admitted past mistakes, but said “we” rather than “I” when acknowledging missteps.

Garcia, a spellbinding orator, is a longtime leftist populist who chafed at paying off foreign debt during his first term and was considered a thorn in the side of the Reagan administration.

These days, Garcia cuts a different political figure. The new Garcia frets about inflation, curries foreign investment and seems to be following his party’s platform of backing a free-trade deal with the United States.

Many veteran Garcia-watchers see him as having been reinvigorated by his battle with Chavez and his perceived Peruvian surrogate, Humala. Like Chavez, Garcia seems to revel in emotional, long-winded oratory. One commentator here even predicted a kind of new “cold war” in Latin America, as its various left-wing leaders lined up for and against Chavez -- with Garcia leading the anti-Chavez bloc.

“He [Garcia] will look to convert himself into the symbol of rational social democracy confronting the ‘demagogue nationalism’ ” of Chavez, predicted Julio Burdman, a Latin America political analyst in Buenos Aires. “It’s a battle that other presidents of the region, for various reasons, are unlikely to join.”

Special correspondent Adrian Leon in Lima and Andres D’Alessandro of The Times’ Buenos Aires Bureau contributed to this report.