GOP Activists Pick Frist for 2008 Presidential Favorite in Straw Poll

Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist of Tennessee avoided embarrassment Saturday night by finishing first in a straw poll of presidential preferences by Republican Party activists here, an exercise that was seen as an early -- if dubious -- test of strength for the 2008 campaign.

Frist, who bused in supporters to ensure he came out on top in the home-state balloting, finished with 37% of the vote, followed by Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney with 14%. Sen. George Allen of Virginia tied with President Bush at 10%, and Sen. John McCain of Arizona finished next with 5%. Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee received 4%; a smattering of other candidates finished below him.

The vote, during a weekend gathering of GOP loyalists from more than two dozen states, was deliberately undercut by McCain and his backers. Demurring, he urged write-in support for Bush, who cannot seek reelection.

“Straw polls are entertaining, my friends, even extremely early ones,” McCain told activists in a speech Friday night. “But I think we have bigger things to worry about.” With a war on, he said, Bush is “the only one who needs our support today.”

In the past, such straw votes have gained much attention but proved politically meaningless.

In previous presidential bids, then-Sen. Alan Cranston of California, the Rev. Pat Robertson and then-Sen. Phil Gramm of Texas all won straw polls. None came close to capturing their party’s nomination.

Bush won the 1998 version of Saturday’s poll, an early sign of his establishment support. But the next several finishers -- businessman Steve Forbes, former Vice President Dan Quayle and then-Sen. Fred Thompson of Tennessee -- had little success. (Thompson never ran for president.) McCain, Bush’s closest competitor in 2000, received no measurable support in that 1998 trial.

Still, political insiders were watching Saturday night’s tally in Memphis, for lack of any better yardstick in the nascent fight for the GOP nomination. That posed a peril for two of the prospective candidates: McCain, who is widely viewed as the early front-runner, and Frist, the leader of Senate Republicans, who had the unhappy distinction of playing host.

Frist minimized the importance of the outcome but admitted to reporters beforehand that, given his native-son status, “Of course you’d like to do well.”

The poll was conducted by the Hotline, an online political newsletter based in Washington. Participating were roughly 2,000 Republican loyalists from 26 states, who paid up to $225 each to attend the combined Southern Republican and Midwestern Leadership Conference.

Not all of the voters, however, showed up for candidate speeches or the weekend of glad-handing at the famed Peabody Hotel. In an e-mail, Frist told supporters they did not have to attend the conference to vote in the straw poll; as it turned out, more than half the votes were cast by Tennessee residents.

A White House spokeswoman, Dana Perino, told the Hotline on the eve of the straw poll, “We certainly appreciate the support and spirit” of McCain’s gesture. But she suggested Bush was more focused on the 2006 campaign, in which control of the House and Senate are at stake.

Huckabee, speaking to reporters as the balloting got underway, offered perhaps the most candid assessment. “I don’t see this as a referendum,” he said, then quickly added, “If I do real well, I’m sure I’ll say it’s the most important thing that ever happened.”