Taiwan argues with itself, disturbing all

EXILED FROM THE United Nations and estranged from most of its neighbors, the Republic of China on the island of Taiwan is a bit off Asia’s beaten track. But last week, the often-overlooked country once again became a major concern in Washington, as two huge rallies brought the nation to the brink of political impasse and raised the specter of regional instability.

At issue is Taiwan’s long-disputed relationship with the People’s Republic of China. In 1949, following Mao Tse-tung’s defeat of Chiang Kai-shek, remnants of Chiang’s Nationalist government moved to Taiwan and proclaimed themselves the legitimate rulers of all China. As years passed and the fiction of “one China” became a fantasy, the Nationalist Party, or Koumintang, gave up the idea of returning to the mainland and began building a democratic China on Taiwan.

But the one-China ideal didn’t die. Today it lives on, thanks to Beijing’s rulers, who envision the eventual reunification of the two countries under the direction of the communists on the mainland.

What makes this more than a political sideshow is the fact that President Carter obligated the U.S. to support the one-China principle when he broke diplomatic ties to Taipei in 1978 and recognized the People’s Republic. To prevent Taiwan from becoming another Tibet, Congress passed the Taiwan Relations Act the following year. It requires the U.S. to defend Taiwan if the island is ever attacked by China.

About a year ago, China recommitted itself to the one-China principle by passing an “anti-secession” law mandating use of force against Taiwan if the island ever made a move toward formal independence. Last month, Taiwan’s pro-independence president, Chen Shui-bian, marked the anniversary of the law by declaring that the long-moribund National Unification Council, established to resolve cross-strait issues, had “ceased to function.” Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao immediately denounced Chen, calling him “a die-hard secessionist” who “seriously undermines peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait.” The U.S. State Department also condemned Chen’s move and warned: “We expect the Taiwanese authorities to unambiguously affirm that ... [Chen’s statement] did not change the status quo.”

Beijing insists that Taiwan relinquish its sovereignty and join the mainland without preconditions. It sets no timetable for unification, insisting only that neither Taiwan’s government nor any of its 23 million people do or say anything that questions China’s hegemony. But this is hardly realistic. Taiwan has a free press and an educated electorate accustomed to debating issues and making up its own mind.

According to recent polls, about 50% of Taiwanese favor independence. Young people overwhelmingly regard themselves as Taiwanese, not Chinese. A solid 29% favors unification, but even most of them insist on the status quo until Beijing renounces communism and accepts the principle of representative government. All Taiwanese agree that a war with 1.3 billion Chinese would be suicidal.

The problem for Washington, which can ill afford any more strategic complications given its problems in Iraq, is that Taiwan is becoming dangerously polarized. The Nationalist Party, which opposes any outright declaration of independence, represents the affluent urban areas where Taiwanese companies have grown prosperous off cheap manufacturing plants on the mainland. Indeed, Taiwan controls more than 50% of total foreign investment in China. Mindful of this, the party hopes to unite with Beijing once it becomes democratic. Until that day arrives, however, it does not want nationalism interfering with business.

Chen’s ruling Democratic Progressive Party wants to formally declare independence. Supported by the rural peasantry and a growing segment of the island’s intelligentsia, Chen believes that Taiwan can’t prosper indefinitely as a pariah recognized by only 26 small countries. Declaring Taiwan’s independence, he contends, would simply acknowledge what already exists.

The two political parties are taking their differences to the streets of Taipei with massive rallies. Last Sunday, an estimated 36,000 supporters of the Kuomintang paraded to the Presidential Office Building, where speakers denounced the Democratic Progressive Party for corruption, economic mismanagement and risking armed confrontation with China by continually pushing for independence.

“We have to fight against Taiwan independence, which will bring us to the brink of war,” Taipei city councilor Wu Guo-dong told the crowd.

On Saturday, the Democrats went to the streets, with its speakers questioning the Kuomintang’s patriotism. At issue are U.S.-made submarines and defensive radars that Chen wants to buy but can’t because the Nationalist Party is blocking appropriations for the weapons out of a fear of antagonizing China.

In the U.S., the political dispute has pitted the State Department against the Pentagon, which would be happy to broker an arms deal. Last week, former Assistant Secretary of Defense Richard Armitage visited Taipei with the message that Taiwan should take its defenses more seriously and quickly approve the purchase of U.S. weaponry. How Taipei can do that without upsetting the status quo is anybody’s guess.

For the U.S., Taiwan’s stability is a paramount concern. Taipei monitors weapons shipments to North Korea and reports on the movements of China’s growing military forces. Its national bank alerts Washington when it suspects terrorist funds are shuttling through Asia. With more than $100 billion invested on the mainland, it also is the driving force behind China’s modernization -- an irony not lost on Beijing or Washington.