Ex-President of Liberia Disappears

Nigerian authorities announced Tuesday that former Liberian President Charles Taylor, indicted on war crimes charges by a U.N. tribunal in Sierra Leone, had disappeared from his oceanfront retreat in Nigeria, in what analysts saw as blow for international justice and Liberia’s hope of recovering from its devastating civil war.

With Nigerian President Olusegun Obasanjo scheduled to meet President Bush on Wednesday, Nigerian officials said Taylor’s security detail had been arrested and authorities were investigating whether he had escaped or been abducted.

Nigeria agreed Saturday to surrender Taylor to Liberia, whose recently elected president, Ellen Johnson-Sirleaf, has called for him to stand trial before the international panel. Conspiracy theories swirled on who was to blame, possible motives and where Taylor might be headed.

Analysts said Taylor’s supporters could grow restless if he was not found quickly. Others predicted that Johnson-Sirleaf would have trouble consolidating support and pushing ahead with her tough anti-corruption campaign if civil servants and businessmen feared retribution from Taylor.

Nigeria drew condemnation from human rights groups that had warned that Taylor could escape unless he was arrested swiftly. But Nigeria declined to arrest the former Liberian president. Obasanjo’s spokesperson, Remi Oyo, said Monday that Taylor wasn’t a prisoner and it was up to the Liberians to come and get him.

Nigeria has grown in importance to the United States as an oil supplier, giving Africa’s most-populous nation increasing clout, but it has been under intense pressure from Washington to hand over Taylor.

“Right now we’re looking for answers from the Nigerian government about the whereabouts of Charles Taylor,” White House spokesman Scott McClellan said when asked whether the meeting between Bush and Obasanjo would still occur. “It is the responsibility of the Nigerian government to see that he is conveyed to the special court in Sierra Leone. We expect the government of Nigeria to fulfill this commitment.”

Prosecutor Desmond de Silva of the U.N. court, who had called for Nigeria to arrest Taylor, issued a statement Tuesday describing the disappearance as “an affront to justice.”

“Charles Taylor is a threat to the peace and security of West Africa. His disappearance now from under the eye of a regional superpower only heightens that threat and puts the whole region on the highest alert.”

Corinne Dufka, West Africa analyst at Human Rights Watch, called the disappearance “a disgrace.”

“Not only is Charles Taylor an indicted war criminal, he’s associated with mayhem and murder throughout West Africa,” she said. “As head of state and a key player in Africa, Mr. Obasanjo has a moral, political and legal responsibility to promote justice and stability, not undermine it.”

Taylor is the only former African head of state to be indicted on war crimes charges. The 17 counts include the charge that he fomented civil war in neighboring Sierra Leone, a country rich in diamonds. The stones are easy to smuggle and trade for arms.

Sierra Leone’s 10-year civil war ended in 2002. Liberia’s 14-year civil war ended in 2003, after Taylor accepted Obasanjo’s offer of asylum in Nigeria.

West Africa, including Liberia, Sierra Leone and Ivory Coast, is fraught with interwoven conflicts. There are reports that Taylor’s fighters and other mercenaries have been moving among the countries, and analysts predict that fighters who support him will return to Liberia once they know he’s free.

U.N. Secretary-General Kofi Annan said Tuesday that he was seeking more information about Taylor’s disappearance.

“I don’t have the facts, and if he is not where he normally stays, where is he?” Annan said. “Has he been moved elsewhere by the government, by the authorities? Did he vanish?”

The former prosecutor at the international Special Court for Sierra Leone, David Crane, said the disappearance raised the question of whether Obasanjo had allowed Taylor to slip away.

He predicted Taylor would hide out in a country such as the Democratic Republic of Congo, large portions of which are under rebel control, rebuild his forces and try to win back power in Liberia.

“It’s a nightmare scenario,” said Crane, now a visiting professor of law at Syracuse University. “He could be anywhere.”

Others suggested that Taylor had so many enemies in West Africa that he might be killed.

“A lot more people would like to see Taylor dead than alive,” said Mike McGovern, West Africa analyst at the International Crisis Group.

Princeton Lyman, an Africa analyst at the Council on Foreign Relations, said the fact that the court and human rights groups had called on Nigeria to detain Taylor “makes Nigeria look even worse.”

“They were clearly warned, and obviously there has to be some collusion at some level for him to be able to get out that way.”

McGovern, the ICG analyst, said the comments by Nigerian officials that Taylor was not a prisoner could almost be seen as inciting him to flee. But he said it would be difficult for Taylor to move around the region without detection because he was so recognizable.

McGovern discounted the idea that Taylor’s disappearance was caused by incompetence in Nigeria.

“The security services and intelligence in fact keep a very close eye on things. The one thing we have to say is that this is not a product of incompetence or an accident.”