Daily Protests Snap at Taiwan Leader’s Heels

For the last two weeks, Wang Jin-mei has joined scores of other protesters on a daily pilgrimage to the president’s office or the Taipei railway station to vent her anger at President Chen Shui-bian.

Demonstrations and mass rallies have taken place around the island in recent days, some leading to scuffles between supporters and opponents of the beleaguered president. On Thursday, hundreds of police officers were mobilized in the southern Taiwanese city of Tainan to prevent a sit-in from turning violent.

“I believe we will accomplish our goal. I’ll be here every day until he steps down,” Wang, a 40-year-old homemaker in jeans and a red protest T-shirt, said, sitting on a carpeted sidewalk. “Chen is greedy, and he should go.”

After several months of political gridlock over allegations that members of Chen’s family engaged in insider trading and corruption, a growing number of Taiwanese seem to agree with Wang. Recent polls suggest that more than 60% of Taiwanese want Chen to step down, compared with 44% in mid-May.

Chen insists that he is innocent and vows to serve out his term, which ends in 2008. Most lawmakers in his party are standing by him, at least until evidence surfaces of any direct involvement, they say. And opponents have not been able to marshal two-thirds of the 221 votes in the legislature as a first step toward unseating him.

In a bid to regain momentum, Chen is mulling a tactic he has used before to get himself out of a tight spot, analysts say: Initiate a foreign-policy debate. Specifically, he wants the electorate to vote on whether Taiwan should seek to join the United Nations using the name “Taiwan” rather than the official “Republic of China.”

In most democracies, such esoteric questions don’t inflame voter passions. But Taiwan is no ordinary democracy. Located 100 miles off China’s coast, it has 800 Chinese missiles pointed in its direction and feels squeezed by Beijing’s growing diplomatic clout. Taiwanese are deeply divided over whether and how far to confront Beijing.

Strong opposition from Beijing, which regards Taiwan as a renegade province, virtually guarantees that the island will not become a U.N. member, regardless of any referendum.

But from Chen’s perspective, analysts say, a vote on U.N. membership would accomplish a couple of things. It would prop up support for his Democratic Progressive Party by inspiring voters to turn out for the next election. And it would shift people’s immediate focus away from the scandal.

“Chen is initiating the U.N. referendum bid in order to divert people’s attention,” said Hung Hsiu-chu, a legislator with the opposition Nationalist Party. “He is shameless.”

Chen has been dogged since April by allegations that his wife had questionable financial dealings with a department store, his son-in-law engaged in insider trading and a key aide was engaged in corruption. Prosecutors also are looking into whether the president submitted doctored receipts for expenses. All four have denied wrongdoing.

This is not the first time Chen has used a hot-button issue to counter political problems. Shortly before the 2004 vote, in which he was reelected by a razor-thin margin, Chen engineered passage of a law legalizing referendums, which some feared could be used to declare independence. This year, he announced plans to dissolve a symbolic unification council, raising Beijing’s hackles.

Since the current scandal broke, the island’s legislature has been so embroiled in political battles that it has had little time for other business, including a proposed purchase of several U.S. weapon systems approved by President Bush in April 2001. The lack of action has further strained U.S.-Taiwanese relations.

China has avoided official comment on the scandal and ensuing political crisis, wary of inadvertently helping Chen, analysts say. But it remains concerned.

“Beijing is alarmed about what a desperate Chen may try to do in his remaining months in office to keep his party in power,” said Bonnie Glaser, senior associate with the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.

Taiwan’s political paralysis may also offer China advantages, some analysts say.

“This situation makes us confident there wouldn’t be real independence activities at this stage,” said Li Jiaquan, a longtime Taiwan analyst based in Beijing. “They’re too busy with their own problems.”

Washington, which opposes a referendum on joining the U.N., is also keeping a close eye on Chen.

“We certainly weren’t expecting it, and we weren’t consulted about it,” Adam Ereli, the State Department’s deputy spokesman, said this year when Chen first floated the idea of a U.N.-related referendum.

“We oppose ... any unilateral change to the status quo, and that would govern that issue as well.”

The Bush administration has made it clear that any Taiwanese referendum should involve meaningful issues and cover questions to which the answers are not already known.

The U.S. is also worried that a referendum could increase cross-strait tensions at a time when Washington has its hands full with Iraq, Iran, North Korea and Afghanistan.

Chen supporters counter, however, that a referendum would be meaningful. “It will demonstrate to China and Washington our unified determination to join the U.N.,” said Liu Shih-fang, deputy secretary-general in the presidential office.

Lai Ching-te, a legislator from Chen’s party, expects the standoff between Chen and his opponents to last through the next presidential election. “The current political chaos will remain till 2008,” he said.

mark.magnier@latimes.com

Times staff writer Magnier reported from Beijing and special correspondent Tsai from Taipei. Yin Lijin of The Times’ Beijing Bureau contributed to this report.