Modest Southland growth seen

Southern California will see a slight increase in economic activity in the next three to six months, according to an index to be released today.

Cal State Fullerton said its Southern California index of leading economic indicators rose 0.04% in the first quarter over the previous quarter, following a revised 0.4% gain in last year’s final three months.

Five of the index’s seven components rose, with the Standard & Poor’s 500 stock index providing the largest positive effect.

Also making positive contributions were the Pacific region consumer confidence index, real money supply, regional nonfarm employment and regional building permits, said Cal State Fullerton economist Adrian R. Fleissig, who compiled the index.

They barely offset negative effects from regional unemployment and a change in the interest rate spread.

The Fullerton index is a Southland version of the Conference Board’s national index of leading economic indicators. The Conference Board’s version fell 0.5% in April, after a revised 0.6% rise in March, suggesting that higher gasoline prices and a sluggish construction industry were beginning to take their toll.

The Fullerton index projects economic activity for Los Angeles, Orange, San Bernardino, Riverside, Ventura and Imperial counties.