Immigration deal faces tough week

As senators returned to the Capitol Monday after a weeklong recess, supporters of an immigration bill expressed guarded confidence that it would pass despite raging conservative criticism.

They appeared buoyed by their success shepherding the controversial bill through its first week of debate and by the sense that voters want them to solve the problem of illegal immigration -- even if those voters don’t entirely approve of the solution they have chosen.

Even so, among the 12 senators behind the immigration bill, there is an acknowledgment that the week ahead will be a tough one.

“This is one of the most contentious, complex, emotional issues of our time and no one is going to get 100% of what they want,” said Sen. Jon Kyl (R-Ariz.), who spoke about constituents who told him they trust him but don’t like his bill. “The situation in the United States, and particularly in my state, is getting worse every day. You simply cannot afford to ignore the problem. You realize you’re going to have to get in there, fight like heck to get the situation resolved.”

A Democratic aide, who spoke on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to speak for the senators, said they “felt pretty good coming out of the first week of debate, but there are going to be some tough votes. There’s a sense of optimism tinged with nervousness.”

Their unease stems in part from their belief that the greatest threats facing the bill this week will come from amendments offered by two former members of the group who now oppose the legislation. It is also rooted in their knowledge that both the bipartisan bill and the bond uniting the coalition that wrote it rest on a fragile foundation.

Republican and Democratic negotiators agreed to a trade-off, which they dubbed the “grand bargain,” to give Democrats a way to give many of the estimated 12 million illegal immigrants legal status and to allow Republicans to shift the criteria for future immigration from family ties toward skills and education. If that trade-off is altered by any amendments this week, coalition members, who have taken to calling themselves the “grand bargainers,” say the bill and their united support could fall apart.

The senators, who trickled back into Washington Monday, got a double-edged boost from President Bush last week when he said that those opposed to the bill “don’t want to do what’s right for America.” That enraged some conservatives who have already been coming down hard on Republican members of the coalition, such as Sens. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) and Johnny Isakson (R-Ga.), both of whom reportedly were booed at Republican gatherings over the recess.

Right now, a Republican and a Democrat pose the most serious threats to the bill. Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) and Sen. Robert Menendez (D-N.J.) both left negotiations over the bill, unhappy with the trade-off that pact members made to protect it.

Menendez’s particular complaint is with the bill’s limits on family-based immigration. The bill would allow citizens to bring only spouses and children younger than 18 to the United States. Currently, citizens also can bring parents and adult children.

The new restrictions are important to Republicans who are intent on ending what Kyl, the lead GOP negotiator, calls “chain migration.” Menendez will bring a series of amendments that strike at that GOP achievement and, if passed, could lead Kyl and other Republicans to abandon the bill.

One amendment would change the deadline for reducing the backlog of family members waiting to enter the United States. The bill would immediately clear the backlog of 4 million family members who applied to enter the U.S. before May 2005. Menendez would shift the date to January 2007 -- the bill’s cutoff for illegal immigrants who could gain legal status -- increasing the number of family applicants allowed in by more than 800,000.

“These are over 800,000 people who played by the rules, didn’t violate any law, did the right thing,” Menendez said. “But all of those who did the right thing, they lose their chance under this bill because of an arbitrary date plucked out of the air. Let’s think about how unfair that is.”

Another Menendez amendment would increase the number of green cards, or legal permanent resident visas, available for parents of U.S. citizens and extend the duration of a new parent visitor visa, also a deal-killer for Republicans.

A third would amend the point system that Republicans have set up for awarding green cards, making it easier for applicants to earn points for family ties to the United States, along with points for education, skills and English ability.

Cornyn will target loopholes in the bill to ensure that illegal immigrants who are terrorists, sex offenders, drunk drivers and armed smugglers cannot become legal residents. But critics charge that his amendment is written so broadly that it would exclude huge numbers from the bill’s legalization program.

The amendment would bar anyone from receiving legal status if he or she has been convicted of reentering the country illegally or of using someone else’s Social Security number -- a group that critics estimate could include half the workers now in the agricultural industry.

“What is the message we send about the rule of law in America when Congress won’t even categorically prohibit rewarding those illegal immigrants who have ignored court orders?” Cornyn said in a statement.

The Democratic aide said the dozen coalition members remained unconvinced. “There’s concern on the part of the grand bargainers that that could overwhelm the bill,” he said.

nicole.gaouette@latimes.com