Can’t tame a hurricane; you can guard your trip

NOBODY likes to be wrong. Nobody, that is, expect perhaps someone whose job it is to predict disaster.

Still, it’s hard to imagine the Champagne corks flying at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration or at Colorado State University, which predicted last year that the 2006 Atlantic hurricane season would be a lion. Instead, it was a lamb.

“The main uncertainty in this outlook is not whether the season will be above normal but how much above normal it will be,” NOAA said in its 2006 forecast, which closely matched that made by the Fort Collins university. NOAA predicted 13 to 16 named storms, eight to 10 of which would become hurricanes. This crystal-balling came on the heels of the record-breaking 2005 season that brought Hurricane Katrina’s wrath to the Gulf Coast and Wilma’s ire to the Gulf Coast and the Yucatan Peninsula.

Weather, however, is disinclined to cooperate with its predictors. In 2006, there were just nine named storms and only five hurricanes among them.

Undaunted, scientists at NOAA and Colorado State have issued their latest forecasts for the 2007 season (June 1 to Nov. 31): 13 to 17 tropical storms, with seven to 10 becoming hurricanes and three to five of those in the strong category, according to NOAA. (Tropical Storm Andrea got a jump on the season when it formed in early May, and on June 1, the first official day of the season, Tropical Storm Barry formed and drenched parts of Florida.)

For gamblers, the odds are pretty even that, after a year of underestimating the number of storms and a year of overestimating them, predictions this year may be right on the money. But here are some ways to lessen the odds of hitting bad weather:

* Avoid traveling to hurricane-prone regions during peak season -- that is, August and September. Only 41% of a sampling of Americans said they knew when hurricane season started and ended, according to a survey sponsored by Access America, a travel insurance provider. Of respondents who said they were traveling this summer, 21% said hurricanes played a part in their choice of destination.

August is a prime travel month for many, and “hurricane-prone” can be hard to define. Although popular destinations such as Florida, Mexico and the Caribbean can be described as being in the hurricane belt, places farther north along the Atlantic Coast as well as the Gulf Coast aren’t without risk.

Additionally, off-peak rates at many of the destinations in hurricane-prone regions may make travelers more inclined to take some risk for the bargain.

* Consider insurance. Even travelers not going to hurricane-prone regions this summer can nonetheless be affected by disruptions to the nation’s air travel system. With a record 209 million passengers expected to travel by air domestically this summer, according to the Air Transport Assn., a Washington, D.C.-based airline industry lobby, flights will be crowded and alternate arrangements difficult if a flight is canceled.

“Typically, the leisure traveler doesn’t have anywhere to turn except to the back of the line,” said Dan McGinnity, vice president of travel insurance provider AIG Travel Guard. That’s where travel insurance can help, he says.

“It’s one thing to know you’re getting your money back, but it doesn’t really help you at that time,” he said. “We’re there to help you rebook travel, make alternative accommodations.”

Shopping for such insurance has become increasingly easy. Though most travel insurance is still sold through a travel agent, McGinnity said, more is being booked online directly with the company or through third-party websites such as InsureMyTrip.com, which allows travelers to compare policies and prices from various companies.

Beth Godlin, executive vice president of sales and marketing for Access America, reinforces the adage that one needs to read the fine print, adding, “No insurance covers everything.”

This year, most insurers are covering “destination made uninhabitable,” said Peter Evans, executive vice president of InsureMyTrip.com. Coverage kicks in when you can get to your destination but your hotel is gone, for example. Experts recommend buying the policy well in advance of need, not when a hurricane has been predicted for your destination. “You can’t see that there’s a hurricane headed for Puerto Rico [and purchase travel insurance], just like you can’t get rear-ended and then call from your mobile phone to get car insurance,” Godlin said.

Contact James Gilden at www.theinternettraveler.com.