Home sales hint at longer slump ahead

Southern California home sales plunged to a 12-year low in April, suggesting that the region’s real estate slump is far from over.

Prices were up overall, rising 6.1% from a year earlier to a median of $505,000, according to data released Tuesday. But that increase was largely driven by an uptick in Los Angeles County, masking declines in Riverside, San Diego and Ventura counties.

Moreover, sales fell throughout the six Southland counties as inventories rose -- and that could push values lower, analysts said.

“Demand is not there and supply is greater; prices are bound to go down,” said Esmael Adibi, an economist at Chapman University in Orange. “No question that the bottom of the market hasn’t hit yet.”

Southern California home sales sank to 19,269 in April, a 28.9% drop from the same month last year and a 12% fall from March. The steepest decline was in the Inland Empire. Sales volume dived 45.1% in Riverside County and 46.7% in San Bernardino County.

In Pasadena, however, Malcolm and Lisa Wright expect a quick sale for their home, which will go on the market in a week or two and be priced in the $600,000 range. Other homes in their neighborhood are drawing multiple bids, and the Wrights see no reason they shouldn’t get the same kind of action.

“It certainly gives us a bit more confidence that our house will sell,” Malcolm Wright said.

The Wrights’ expectations reflect crosscurrents in the real estate market. Sales are declining at a slower rate in neighborhoods where the median price is $600,000 and higher, according to DataQuick Information Systems, which released Tuesday’s report.

But in areas such as the Inland Empire, which offers affordable housing and caters to first-time buyers, sales are in a free fall. That’s partly because of tougher mortgage loan standards brought on by rising defaults, and that is shrinking the pool of buyers.

The sales decline also reflects the ebb and flow of the real estate market, said John Karevoll, DataQuick’s chief analyst.

Riverside and San Bernardino counties, along with modest-income neighborhoods such as Watts and Stanton, were last of the Southland’s markets to heat up as housing values skyrocketed early this decade. Now, they are the last to cool off.

These areas “had surged and now we are coming off that surge,” Karevoll said. “Most of the decline is due to the cycle.”

The sales decline, however, didn’t weigh down prices significantly. In April, the median price in Riverside County fell 1% to $409,000. San Bernardino’s median edged up 2.8%. Still, that’s a big change from a year earlier, when prices were up 9.4% in Riverside and 18.4% in San Bernardino.

Los Angeles was the only other county aside from San Bernardino to see a rise in its April median price, the point at which half the homes sold for more and half sold for less. Los Angeles County posted a 5.9% gain from a year earlier, to $540,000, unchanged from March. That helped lift prices overall because L.A. County accounts for 35% of all sales. Sales fell 22.2%.

Orange County’s median was flat at $629,000, a 0.2% decline from April 2006 and unchanged from the month before. Sales declined 24.7%. In Ventura County, prices fell 2.4% to $572,000 as sales dropped 11.7% compared with a year earlier.

In San Diego County, the median price slipped 3% to $490,000 for the slowest rate of decline since August. Sales fell 13.5%.

The trend mirrors what’s happening across the country. The National Assn. of Realtors said Tuesday that sales of existing homes fell 6.6% in the first quarter, and that the median price slipped 1.8% to $212,300.

Karevoll said that if sales continued to fall, “undoubtedly there would be a drag on prices.”

“But the question is, is it going to last that long? I don’t think it will,” Karevoll said, citing a healthy local economy and still-low interest rates.

Real estate agent Ernie Boehr seconds that opinion. This week, he fielded 24 offers for an Arcadia home, which he described as a fixer. The seller accepted an offer that was about $100,000 above the $699,000 asking price.

“Some properties don’t get any activity and some get tremendous activity,” Boehr said. “If it’s priced right, it goes.”

annette.haddad@latimes.com

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Widespread decline

April sales for new and resold houses and condominiums:

*--* Homes % change sold from County 4/07 4/06 San Bernardino 2,049 -46.7% Riverside 2,987 -45.1 Orange 2,682 -24.7 Los Angeles 7,225 -22.2 San Diego 3,436 -13.5 Ventura 890 -11.7 Southern California 19,269 -28.9

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Source: DataQuick Information Systems

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Mixed bag

April median prices for new and resold homes:

*--* Median % price change 4/07 from County (thousands) 4/06 Los Angeles $540 +5.9% San Bernardino 370 +2.8 Orange 629 -0.2 Riverside 409 -1.0 Ventura 572 -2.4 San Diego 490 -3.0 Southern California 505 +6.1

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Source: DataQuick Information Systems

Los Angeles Times