After rally, traders to track retail
Wall Street will look to build on the strongest weekly performance for stocks since 1932 today, with investors focused on how recession-minded shoppers behaved at the malls and a raft of government data that could provide a clearer picture of the economy.
Preliminary reports show that sales got off to a decent start on Black Friday, the day after Thanksgiving. Traditionally, that’s one of the biggest shopping days of the year.
Investors will be watching reports from the nation’s biggest stores, along with economic data such as November’s payroll report, to determine how deeply the nation’s economic downturn has cut into spending.
A more complete picture of how Thanksgiving weekend sales fared won’t be known until Thursday, when the nation’s retailers report November same-store sales.
Wall Street will also be skittish about financial stocks.
Though last week’s government-backed rescue of Citigroup Inc. encouraged buying in the sector, any sign that another major bank or financial company is in trouble would quickly unnerve investors.
Stocks ended a holiday-shortened week with some of the steepest gains in 75 years. Major indexes have locked in big advances, including 16.9% for the Dow Jones industrial average and 19.1% for the Standard & Poor’s 500 index, since the rally began Nov. 21.
It was the first time the Dow rose for five consecutive sessions since July 2007 and the biggest five-session percentage gain since Aug. 8, 1932.
“Stocks were overdue for a bounce,” said Stephen Leeb, president of New York-based Leeb Capital Management. “Increasing evidence that the federal government will do whatever is necessary to stave off deflation and depression have helped fuel the advance.”
Analysts expect the early part of this week to be dominated by retail sales reports, especially data that zero in on how much Americans spent in the first days of the holiday shopping season.
According to preliminary figures released by research firm ShopperTrak RTC, sales rose 3% to $10.6 billion on Black Friday. The firm is expected to release data for Friday and Saturday today.
The Labor Department will release its report on nonfarm payrolls Friday. Economists polled by Thomson Reuters believe that 316,000 jobs were lost during November, which would be the largest decline since May 1980. There was a drop of 240,000 jobs in October.
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At a glance
TODAY
Cyber Monday, a day when online merchants offer holiday bargain prices, coupons and free shipping.
Commerce Department releases construction spending for October.
Treasury auction.
Institute for Supply Management releases its manufacturing index for November.
TUESDAY
Major automakers report U.S. sales.
Quarterly results due from Beazer Homes USA, Sears Holdings and Staples.
WEDNESDAY
Labor Department releases revised productivity data for the third quarter of 2008.
Federal Reserve releases its so-called beige book summary of regional economic conditions.
Senate Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs Committee hearing on the automobile industry.
Institute for Supply Management releases its non-manufacturing index.
THURSDAY
Major department stores and chain retailers report November sales results.
Labor Department releases weekly jobless benefit claims data.
Commerce Department releases factory orders for October.
Freddie Mac releases weekly mortgage rates.
Quarterly results due from Smithfield Foods and Toll Bros.
FRIDAY
Labor Department releases unemployment data for November.
Federal Reserve releases consumer credit data for October.
House Financial Services Committee hearing on the automobile industry.
