Tension rises before vote in Pakistan

The only thing messier than the prelude to this troubled country’s general election could be its aftermath.

Regardless of who wins Monday’s parliamentary vote, the first genuinely contested election in years, many observers believe turmoil probably will follow -- in the form of long-lasting political upheaval or a swift outbreak of rioting, or some combination of the two.

The campaign season has been punctuated by bloody and chaotic events, chief among them the assassination in December of former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto, the country’s most popular politician. Add to that long-held hatreds, predictions of massive vote- rigging and a crackdown on opposition groups and the electronic news media, and few look to Monday’s polling without trepidation.

If the party aligned with widely detested President Pervez Musharraf triumphs despite polls forecasting its defeat, the result could be an outburst of popular anger.

“You see, this is why everyone is so on edge,” said schoolteacher Aisha Ali, serving tea in her sunny garden while the call to prayer echoed from the neighborhood mosque. “Everyone knows that the vote isn’t the end of all this upheaval -- it may be just the beginning.”

If the two main opposition parties take the lion’s share of the vote, as polls predict, their leaders would have to overcome long-standing enmity to govern together. Politics here are deeply personal, often involving not only blood ties but blood feuds.

The two main opposition leaders illustrate those deep-rooted animosities. Bhutto’s widower, Asif Ali Zardari, took over leadership of the Pakistan People’s Party after her death. If the opposition wins enough parliamentary seats, he could find himself in a coalition with the party of Nawaz Sharif, another former prime minister and a protege of Gen. Zia ul-Haq, who deposed and executed Bhutto’s father.

Despite their common stance against Musharraf, Bhutto and Sharif disliked each other intensely, associates of both say -- although on the night of Bhutto’s assassination, Sharif rushed to the hospital to pay respects.

Sharif, meanwhile, has clearly telegraphed his own desire for vengeance against Musharraf. In his second term as prime minister, Sharif was ousted in 1999 by the then military chief, who jailed him on treason charges and then exiled him. Sharif returned to Pakistan in December, after eight years.

Out on the campaign trail, Sharif calls Musharraf, who was voted to a second term as president by the outgoing assemblies, a dictator whose day has come and gone.

As for Zardari, he has unleashed bitter accusations against Musharraf’s party and government, which he considers complicit in his wife’s death. In an Urdu-language play on the ruling party’s informal name, he calls it the Murderers League.

Musharraf’s supporters, for their part, deride Zardari as a common thief.

“Look at these shenanigans of his -- who would think of trusting such a man?” said former minister Tariq Azim, referring to a number of corruption charges against Bhutto’s husband.

Even in the face of such mutual mudslinging, some Pakistan People’s Party officials do not rule out the possibility of an accommodation with Musharraf, something many had expected of Bhutto.

Such a move, though, could set off a backlash among party faithful who would consider it an insult to her memory.

If the main opposition parties secure control of two-thirds of the parliamentary seats, they could move to impeach Musharraf, whose approval ratings have plunged to an all-time low of about 15%, propelled downward by his declaration of emergency rule late last year. During it, he suspended the Constitution and jailed thousands of opponents and judges.

Despite broad public sentiment that Musharraf should resign, any move to oust him would be fraught with peril, said Jennifer Harbison, head of the Asia desk at the London-based consultancy Control Risks.

“It would certainly be a dramatic proceeding, the success of which would depend on the strength of his support within the army -- whether they would let a sitting president be impeached,” Harbison said. “It could be a quick route to the removal of the civilian government.”

If there is one point of agreement, it is that it will be difficult for the various sides to agree on the fairness and validity of the vote. Rights groups have said that there is already ample evidence the balloting will be tainted by widespread bribery, intimidation and vote manipulation.

The New York-based Human Rights Watch on Friday released a tape of what it said was the country’s attorney-general, Malik Mohammed Qayyum, telling a would-be candidate over the phone that the poll would be “massively rigged.”

A relatively small number of outside observers, including some from the European Union, are here to monitor the election. But most of the on-the-ground scrutiny at more than 64,000 polling places will be by volunteers with Pakistani civil groups, who are keenly aware of the danger of their task.

“Those doing this job, they are very brave people,” said Zafarullah Khan, director of the Center for Civic Education in Islamabad. “They are vulnerable to many risks, and they know this.”

Party workers and candidates have lodged hundreds of complaints of beatings and threats, often by Pakistani police or local authorities dependent on government patronage.

Despite a sense that this is a pivotal political moment, there is little outward manifestation of a hard-fought campaign. Fears of suicide attacks such as the one that killed Bhutto have kept many voters from attending the open-air rallies of the candidates bold enough to hold them.

The vote, however, may turn some conventional notions about Pakistan on their head. For years, the commonly held wisdom in the West was that Islamist parties would gain if Musharraf’s grip on power weakened.

But the opposite seems to be true. Polls have suggested that the religious parties, which had their strongest showings ever in 2002, will probably fade this time around.

Analysts said the secular Awami National Party appeared poised to win a significant share of the votes of ethnic Pashtuns, the dominant group in the troubled tribal region bordering Afghanistan, drawing support away from Islamist parties.

But the Musharraf government’s alliance with the Bush administration remains unpopular, with many people believing that Pakistan’s sacrifices in the fight against Islamic militants have been lightly dismissed.

Analysts and even some supporters said Bhutto probably would have been hurt at the polls by the perception that as prime minister she would have too willingly pursued Washington’s agenda, including allowing direct U.S. military strikes in the tribal areas where the Islamist militants find haven.

The opposition parties have tailored their rhetoric to appeal to an electorate weary of Musharraf’s more than eight years of rule.

“You will have to choose between those who have broken Pakistan or those who can save it,” Zardari told a raucous crowd at a rally in the industrial city of Faisalabad in Punjab province.

“God willing, the rule of usurpers is ending,” Sharif declared to cheering supporters outside the eastern city of Lahore, capital of Punjab.

Musharraf’s backers tend to make stability and economic progress their main campaign talking points.

But mindful of his unpopularity, few want to ride this president’s coattails.

At carefully scripted rallies and gatherings, ruling party candidates routinely deliver long speeches, with one notable omission: Not once do they mention Musharraf’s name.

laura.king@latimes.com

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At the polls

The electorate: About 80 million voters in four provinces and eight tribal districts. Citizens 18 and older are eligible to vote. Turnout may be diminished by security concerns.

Timing: Voting originally was set for Jan. 8, but postponed six weeks to Feb. 18 after the assassination of former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto.

What’s at stake: 272 seats in the National Assembly, as well as the four provincial assemblies. An additional 60 National Assembly seats are set aside for women and 10 for religious minorities; they are allotted among parties on the basis of their vote share.

Balance of power: In the 2002 elections, which were widely considered rigged, the PML-Q, which is loyal to Musharraf, got 130 seats; the Pakistan People’s Party, the largest opposition group, held 63; a six-party Islamist alliance called Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal had 59; the PML-N, headed by former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, won 18; and the regional Muttahida Qaumi Movement, which backs Musharraf, also held 18. The rest went to smaller parties and independents.

Observers: Several Pakistani civic groups are to monitor polling. The largest international delegation is from the European Union.

Source: Times reporting